Nebraska is taking its ninth turn at bat, failing to get a hit in its first eight NCAA Tournament appearances. This is Troy’s fourth try at an NCAA win after losing in its first three attempts, including last year.
The Huskers got off to a 20-0 start before dropping six of their last 13 games, and on the flip side, the Trojans got hot at the right time, winning five of their last six, including the Sun Belt Championship.
The winner gets either Vanderbilt or McNeese.
Nebraska vs Troy Game Preview: Which Team Will Finally Win an NCAA Tournament Game?
Nebraska vs Troy How To Watch
Date: Thursday, March 19
Venue: Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK
Time: 12:40 pm ET
TV: truTV
Streaming: March Madness Live App, Paramount+, HBO Max
Teams: (4) Nebraska 26-6, (13) Troy 22-11
Nebraska Rankings: KenPom 14 | NET 14
Troy Rankings: KenPom 143 | NET 125
College Football Programs: Nebraska will always be a football school, but even with more talent this season, it’s still several steps behind the Big Ten elite.
Troy is just starting to get back to Sun Belt Championship form after a rebound season – this year’s team will push for the conference title.
– CFN NCAA Tournament Schedule, Previews
Key Stats
– Nebraska does not get up the floor in any way, shape, or form. It’s mostly by design, scoring just 6.25 fastbreak points per game – it’s 350th out of 365 teams.
– Troy’s D-from-three isn’t quite as good as Nebraska’s (which allows teams to hit 29.9%), but it’s not far off, allowing offenses to make just 31.3% from the outside.
Why Troy Will Win: It Doesn’t Have To Be Amazing From Three
Troy has enough of an offense to keep Nebraska working.
The Trojans beat San Diego State in a 108-107 double-overtime game, and followed it up with a 107-106 triple-overtime loss to USC. That defeat to the other Trojans was the only time this year Troy lost when it didn’t hit at least 34% from three.
It doesn’t have to be lights out from the outside. For this bunch, when the threes fall, everything else opens up, and the defense and rebounding are good enough to take care of the rest.
There can’t be any fear of making this a firefight. Nebraska does absolutely nothing to score points on the fast break, and it doesn’t get to the free throw line.
Why Nebraska Will Win: The Huskers Will Do What They Want To
Troy will try to run a little bit, but Nebraska won’t go for it.
The Huskers won’t put the Trojans on the line – this bunch doesn’t foul – and they won’t turn the ball over enough for easy points.
They’ll get the defensive rebound, get the ball up the court when they want to, the crisp passes will lead to open shots, and repeat.
To beat Nebraska, you need to be lights out on defense. It’s 21-2 when scoring 69 points or more, and Troy has only allowed fewer than that 12 times, and …
Nebraska vs Troy Prediction, Betting Lines
Troy didn’t get a win this season against a team in the NCAA Tournament.
It lost to USC, lost to Toledo, and the San Diego State win came when absolutely everything went the right way.
Nebraska is way too meticulous to blow it. It’ll keep moving the ball around without giving up easy points, there won’t be any panic when the Trojans go on a few scoring runs, and finally, the school will know what it’s like to have an NCAA Tournament win in men’s basketball.
Prediction: Nebraska 80, Troy 66
Consensus Line: Nebraska -13.5, o/u: 137.5
ATS Confidence out of 5: 3.5
Meet the NCAA Tournament Seeds
No. 1 | No. 2 | No. 3 | No. 4 | No. 5 | No. 6
No. 7 | No. 8 | No. 9 | No. 10 | No. 11
No. 12 | No. 13 | No. 14 | No. 15 | No. 16
Consensus Line from BetMGM, Caesars, DraftKings, and FanDuel. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Related: Ohio State vs TCU Prediction and Preview: NCAA Tournament First Round
This story was originally published by College Football News on Mar 17, 2026, where it first appeared in the College Basketball section. Add College Football News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.