The NCAA tournament tips off Thursday, and as always, March Madness brings chaos, upsets, and plenty of betting opportunities. This breakdown focuses on the Midwest Region, where several first-round matchups offer intriguing value on the board.
This card highlights five bets worth targeting. One spot backs a team with a matchup nightmare opponents struggle to handle. Another play rides a squad that loves launching from deep. There’s also a team total that looks set a little too low. A mid-major faces a defensive unit it hasn’t seen anything like all season, and the highest-scoring offense in the country looks ready to keep the points flowing.
All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change. DraftKings does not sponsor this content.
Saint Louis Moneyline (+136)
Robbie Avila has been a matchup nightmare, shooting 62% on 2-pointers and 42% from 3 while leading Saint Louis back to the NCAA Tournament. The Billikens have been efficient on both ends, ranking among the national leaders in shooting efficiency and defensive field-goal percentage. Georgia, meanwhile, has struggled defensively, allowing nearly 80 points per game. With Saint Louis playing balanced, efficient basketball, the Billikens have a strong chance to pull the upset.
Santa Clara +3.5 (-115)
Santa Clara is a sneaky value play against Kentucky thanks to its explosive offense. The Broncos fire up nearly 30 3-pointers per game and rank among the nation’s best in offensive rebounding and efficiency. That’s a problem for a Kentucky defense that has struggled to defend the perimeter and been inconsistent all season. If Santa Clara gets hot from deep, the Broncos can keep this one tight — and cover.
Wright State Over 63.5 Team Total Points (-115)
Wright State’s offense has been rolling heading into the tournament, averaging 80.7 points per game and topping 90 in three of its last four. The Raiders shoot an efficient 47.8% from the field, led by Brandon Noel (19.1 PPG) and Alex Huibregtse (15.3 PPG, 39% from three). Virginia allows 68.4 points per game, which still sits above this number — making the over worth a look.
Tennessee State Under 61.5 Team Total Points (-105)
Iowa State’s defense is built to make life miserable for opposing offenses, using relentless pressure and its “No-Middle” scheme to force tough shots. The Cyclones have held teams like Texas Tech, Kansas and Baylor under this number. Tennessee State averages 80.5 points but shoots just 33.1% from three, a weakness against Iowa State’s physical perimeter defense. That shooting issue could make scoring tough all night.
Alabama Over 85.5 Team Total Points (-120)
The Crimson Tide bring the nation’s highest-scoring offense, averaging 91.7 points per game while playing at the fourth-fastest pace in the country. Alabama also features six players averaging double figures, led by Labaron Philon Jr. at 21.7 points per game. Hofstra’s defense has been solid, but teams like William & Mary and Elon have already cleared this number.
This story was originally published by Athlon Sports on Mar 17, 2026, where it first appeared in the Sports Betting section. Add Athlon Sports as a Preferred Source by clicking here.