There won’t be a whole lot of finesse about the Michigan State vs North Dakota State first round matchup.
North Dakota State is a football powerhouse looking to make some noise on the basketball side. It’s had some success with a good Sweet 16 run in 2014, followed by a first round win in 2015, but that’s been it.
It’s a tough-guy team that won eight of its last nine, including a strong run to take the Summit championship.
Michigan State is known for its fight under Tom Izzo. The COVID 2020 season was the only time the program hasn’t been to an NCAA Tournament since 1997, this year’s team was one of the three best in the Big Ten, and nothing less than a deep run will do.
The winner gets either Louisville or USF.
Michigan State vs North Dakota State Game Preview: The Football Mentality Comes to March
Michigan State vs North Dakota State How To Watch
Date: Thursday, March 19
Venue: KeyBank Center, Buffalo, NY
Time: 4:05 pm ET
TV: TNT
Streaming: March Madness Live App, Paramount+, HBO Max
Teams: (3) Michigan State 25-7, (14) North Dakota State 27-7
Michigan State Rankings: KenPom 9 | NET 11
North Dakota State Rankings: KenPom 113 | NET 114
College Football Programs: After a few down years, Michigan State is starting over with new head coach Pat Fitzgerald. For now, basketball is still king.
North Dakota State’s basketball success is indicative of the overall rise of the school and the athletic department, with the football program – not the basketball teams – moving to the Mountain West.
– CFN NCAA Tournament Schedule, Previews
Key Stats
– Michigan State doesn’t force mistakes. It’s 321st in the nation, averaging fewer than ten takeaways per game.
– North Dakota State led the Summit in scoring margin, winning by more than 11 points per game.
Why North Dakota State Will Win: The Bison Will Hit the Boards
For the most part, smallish, super-quick teams don’t give the Spartans too much of a problem. It’s the teams with size that can at least hold their own that are the issue.
North Dakota State is great on the glass at both ends of the floor, but is at its best on the offensive side, coming up with 11.6 offensive rebounds per game.
The guards get to the ball, but it’s the 6-10 pair of Treyson Anderson and Noah Feddersen that bring the sheer size to shove the Spartans around.
However …
Why Michigan State Will Win: The Spartans Will Win the Rebounding Battle
The Spartans only allowed three teams this season to come up with ten or more offensive rebounds.
A massive Illinois team pulled down 14, but that was an overtime fight – and the Spartans won.
A great Arkansas team came up with 11 – another MSU victory – and Wisconsin came up with one of its best performances of the year, helped by 11 in the win.
Here’s the problem, though, with getting lots of offensive rebounds.
That means you missed, and you still have to score. Michigan State might give up the board, but the third-leading team in the nation in rebounding margin will attack that second chance.
Michigan State vs North Dakota State Prediction, Betting Lines
It’s not all meathead, slugfest basketball with these two.
North Dakota State is good at hitting the three, and the Spartans will get caught a few times. However, the Bison can’t run with Jeremy Fears and the best dunker in college basketball, Coen Carr.
The Bison will bully their way to points early on, but the threes will eventually stop falling, the Spartans will get on the move, and another Izzo-coached team will move on in the NCAA Tournament.
Prediction: Michigan State 80, North Dakota State 64
Consensus Line: Michigan State -16.5, o/u: 143.5
ATS Confidence out of 5: 3
Meet the NCAA Tournament Seeds
No. 1 | No. 2 | No. 3 | No. 4 | No. 5 | No. 6
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No. 12 | No. 13 | No. 14 | No. 15 | No. 16
Consensus Line from BetMGM, Caesars, DraftKings, and FanDuel. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Related: Vanderbilt vs McNeese Prediction and Preview: NCAA Tournament First Round
This story was originally published by College Football News on Mar 17, 2026, where it first appeared in the College Basketball section. Add College Football News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.