Final Four prediction: Gators will reach semifinal, fall short of repeat

Haven’t followed college basketball since Florida won the national title last April? Doesn’t matter.

Can’t keep track of the projected payrolls of the top teams? It’s irrelevant.

Are you bothered by the transient nature of players moving from school to school? Put it out-of-mind.

The NCAA Tournament is back. One of our nation’s best sporting events, particularly the first two days of 32 total games, returns to capture us.

Florida is attempting to win consecutive titles for the second time in school history (2006-07) and is the No. 1 seed in the South Region.

Here is a region-by-region look at the tournament:

Michigan State head coach Tom Izzo reacts to a play against UCLA during the second half of Big Ten tournament quarterfinal at United Center in Chicago on Friday, March 13, 2026.

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East Region

Underrated: North Dakota State. Hey, the Bison aren’t going to win a game, but I somehow have to include my hometown college team in this story. The Bison draw Michigan State.

Overrated: Kansas. Is it me or does Jayhawks coach Bill Self appear to be having zero fun? He got ejected in the first half of a recent loss at lowly Arizona State and the Jayhawks were routed by Houston in the Big 12 Tournament.

First round: Duke (1), Ohio State (8), St. John’s (5), Cal Baptist (13), South Florida (11), Michigan State (3), UCLA (7) and Connecticut (2).

First round upsets: Cal Baptist over Kansas (4) and South Florida over Louisville (6).

Second round: Duke over Ohio State, St. John’s over Cal Baptist, Michigan State over South Florida and Connecticut over UCLA.

Sweet 16 (in Washington, D.C.): St. John’s over Duke and Michigan State over Connecticut.

Elite Eight: Michigan State over St. John’s.

Overview: The Big East’s regular season and postseason tournament champion (St. John’s) is a No. 5 seed and gets shipped to San Diego? The Big East simply isn’t any good. … South Florida coach Bryan Hodgson is from western New York and takes the Bulls to Buffalo. He could be the next coach at Syracuse, but first USF will upset Louisville, which is 4-4 in its last eight games. … Another potential Syracuse candidate, former Orange guard Gerry McNamara, coaches Siena against Duke. … Check out the coaches in this region: Self, Rick Pitino (St. John’s), Dan Hurley (Connecticut), Tom Izzo (Michigan State) and a personal favorite to watch in press conferences, Mick Cronin (UCLA). … Cal Baptist is located in Riverside and playing in its first NCAA tournament.

Florida forward Thomas Haugh (10) handles the ball against Vanderbilt during their semifinal game of the 2026 SEC Men’s Basketball Tournament at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, Tenn., Saturday, March 14, 2026.

South Region

Underrated: Vanderbilt. When we last saw the Commodores, they were taking it to Florida in the SEC Tournament semifinals.

Overrated: North Carolina. The Tar Heels lost top player Caleb Wilson in mid-February to a broken hand and then he broke his thumb in practice preparing for his return. UNC will be out in the first round.

First round: Florida (1), Clemson (8), Vanderbilt (5), Nebraska (4), Virginia Commonwealth (11), Illinois (3), Texas A&M (10) and Houston (2).

First round upsets: VCU over North Carolina (6) and Texas A&M over Saint Mary’s (7).

Second round: Florida over Clemson, Vanderbilt over Nebraska, Illinois over VCU and Houston over Texas A&M.

Sweet 16 (in Houston): Florida over Vanderbilt and Houston over Illinois.

Elite Eight: Florida over Houston.

Overview: Florida was the fourth overall seed in the tournament, which means it has the fifth overall seed (Houston) in its way to a repeat national title. The Gators got a good draw on the first weekend, but Vanderbilt (Sweet 16) with its quality guard play (its three top guards average a combined 48.2 points and 10.6 assists) will be a significant challenge in the Sweet 16, followed by an Elite Eight road game against Houston, which won’t be playing in its home area, but is home town. … VCU was 13-1 in its last 14 regular season games. … Houston is second nationally in scoring defense (62.3 points per game allowed). … The Gators’ 14.4 rebounding margin is best in the nation. … Iowa led the Big Ten in scoring defense (65.2 points). … McNeese State forces 16.8 turnovers per game (second nationally).

Michigan head coach Dusty May reacts to a play against Purdue during the first half of Big Ten Tournament final at United Center in Chicago on Sunday, March 15, 2026.

Midwest Region

Underrated: Miami (Ohio). The RedHawks went 30-0 in the regular season, only the fifth team since 2000 to go undefeated in the regular season. But they are in a play-in game against SMU because they lost to Massachusetts in the Mid-American Conference quarterfinals

Overrated: Kentucky. Among the top 30 teams in the NET rankings, UK is tied with Ohio State for most Quad 1 losses (11). It played Florida three times … and never led.

First round: Michigan (1), Saint Louis (9), Akron (13), Alabama (4), Miami (Ohio) (11), Virginia (3), Santa Clara (10) and Iowa State (2).

First round upsets: Saint Louis over Georgia (8), Akron over Texas Tech (12), Miami (Ohio) over Tennessee (6) and Santa Clara over Kentucky (7).

Second round: Michigan over Saint Louis, Alabama over Akron, Virginia over Miami (Ohio) and Iowa State over Santa Clara.

Sweet 16 (in Chicago): Michigan over Alabama and Iowa State over Virginia.

Elite Eight: Michigan over Iowa State.

Overview: Santa Clara is in the tournament for the first time since 1996 when it was led by point guard Steve Nash. … Georgia’s 90.4 points per game is fifth nationally. … Saint Louis coach Josh Schertz would have been in line for a power conference job, but he signed an extension with the Billikens. … Alabama averages 12.8 3-pointers per game (second-most nationally). … Texas Tech lost terrific player JT Toppin to a torn ACL last month and guard Christian Anderson injured his groin in the Big 12 tournament (he is expected to play).

Arkansas guard Darius Acuff Jr. drives around Vanderbilt's Tyler Tanner in the first half of SEC Tournament championship game at Bridgestone Arena on March 15, 2026 in Nashville, Tennessee.

West Region

Underrated: High Point. The Big South champion Panthers average 90 points per game (seventh nationally) and among their 30-4 record is a current 14-game winning streak.

Overrated: Villanova. The Wildcats had only two Quad 1 wins. By comparison, Michigan had 17.

First round: Arizona (1), Utah State (9), High Point (12), Arkansas (4), BYU (6), Gonzaga (3), Miami (Fla.) (7) and Purdue (2).

First round upsets: Utah State over Villanova (8) and High Point over Wisconsin (5).

Second round: Arizona over Utah State, Arkansas over High Point, Gonzaga over BYU and Miami (Fla.) over Purdue.

Sweet 16 (in San Jose): Arizona over Arkansas and Gonzaga over Miami (Fla.).

Elite Eight: Arizona over Gonzaga.

Overview: The Long Island-Arizona game tips at 10:35 a.m. local time in San Diego on Thursday. It’s like the players will be back in AAU ball. … Former NBA point guard Rod Strickland coaches LIU, which has gone from three wins in 2022-23 to 24 this season. … Arkansas guard Darius Acuff, Jr., enters the tournament averaging 22.2 points and 6.4 assists. … Hawaii got a break with its travel assignment. The Rainbow Warriors won the Big West Tournament in suburban Las Vegas and have to only head north to Portland to face Arkansas. … BYU freshman AJ Dybantsa (24.7 points per game) is a candidate to be the NBA’s No. 1 overall draft pick. … Led by first-year coach Jai Lucas, Miami (Fla.) went from 24 losses to 24 wins.

Final Four

Semifinals (in Indianapolis): Michigan State over Florida and Michigan over Arizona.

Championship: Michigan over Michigan State.

Overview: Florida’s bid to repeat as national champions falls two games short. … An all-Big Ten and all-Michigan final in Indianapolis. Wolverines coach Dusty May (who previously led Florida Atlantic to a Final Four) wins his first title over Izzo, who will be denied his second.

Contact O’Halloran at rohalloran@gannett.com

This article originally appeared on Florida Times-Union: Final Four picks: March Madness predictions for NCAA bracket