If the Jayhawks want to avoid being the victim of a major first round upset today, they’ll need to get past 13 seed Cal Baptist. The Lancers are 25-8 this year, after going 13-5 in WAC play.
The most important thing to know about the Lancers is far and away their 5’10 point guard, Dominique Daniels, Jr. The senior averaged 23.2 points per game this year on solid efficiency, with a 114.6 ORtg and 31% usage rate. He shot nearly 49% on a whopping 391 two point attempts, while hitting just under 33% of his 186 three point attempts. Despite being undersized and a mediocre outside shooter, Daniels was able to score at will, largely through his ability to get into the paint. Bart Torvik’s site designates 248 of those 391 twos as “close twos,” and he’s attempted 216 free throws this year, hitting 81.5% at the stripe. The defensive key for Kansas will be to ensure Flory is waiting for him in the paint, and avoids picking up fouls, since getting the Kansas big men into foul trouble is likely something Cal Baptist will be focused on tonight.
Much like their leading scorer, Cal Baptist as a team isn’t really looking to destroy you from the three point line. Only 32% of their shots come from behind the arc, and they make a pedestrian 33.7% of them. Interestingly, they don’t shoot twos well as a team, either. They rank 317th nationally by making 47.7% of their shots inside the arc. Their free throw rate is also middle of the road, and they’ve had issues turning the ball over. Offensively, the game starts and ends with trying shut down Daniels, because the Lancers rank just 192nd offensively, per KenPom.
While Daniels and his offense are the story you’ll hear most about where Cal Baptist is concerned, they’re actually a more skilled defensive team. KenPom rates them 53rd in the country, with a variety of impressive numbers. It should be noted that their defensive ratings are a bit inflated by three point luck, with opponents hitting just 29.7% of their threes. That’s the 7th best “three point defense” in the country. That said, their two point defense, which requires a lot less luck, is still very strong. They rank 35th in the country, allowing opponents to make just 47.3% of their two point shots. What’s really interesting is that they do this without blocking many shots. Their team block rate ranks just 291st in D1, meaning they’ve been successful in making shooters uncomfortable and taking away the easy ones.
Another area to watch for the Lancers is their rebounding, on both ends of the floor. They rank 11th on the country at grabbing their own rebounds, and they’re in the top 50 in cleaning the defensive glass. You may be tempted to assume that won’t be an issue for Kansas, because we’re talking about a little mid major team. Actually, we’re talking about a very big mid major team. They have four players 6’10 or taller, with a pair of 7 footers. Three of those four split time fairly evenly, and all are capable rebounders. Again, staying out of foul trouble will be key for KU’s big men.
Prediction
Before looking into this game, I assumed a 14 seed wouldn’t have the size to really bother Flory. That would a good thing, because this team’s best performances this year have generally involved Flory being active offensively. Since that’s not the case with Cal Baptist, I’m a little nervous. With that said, it’s easy to forget that Kansas is a great offensive team, and even if the Lancers can throw a talented senior guard at us, as a team they struggle to score. Since they aren’t really a threat to light it up from three, I’m having a hard time seeing them beat Kansas even if they Jayhawks don’t score easily. It may be an ugly rock fight, at least for a while, but we’ve got the firepower to win this game 9 times out of 10.
Kansas 73, Cal Baptist 59