Ever since Wisconsin transfer John Blackwell entered the portal nearly two weeks ago, Illinois has appeared to be the frontrunner in his recruitment. But that seemingly changed on Friday afternoon when Illini wing Andrej Stojakovic announced his return to Champaign for the 2026-27 season.
In the time since, Blackwell has scheduled visits to Duke and Louisville, per Joe Tipton of On3 Sports. Blackwell, a dynamic 6-foot-4 guard, has already taken a visit to UCLA, as well.
So if Champaign isn't on Blackwell's travel itinerary, then Illinois may be falling out of the race. That raises a question: Did the Illini rethink their Blackwell pursuit or did he back off from the Illini?
The organic line of thought: Illini coach Brad Underwood must have expected Stojakovic to return. And even after Illinois added Providence transfer Stefan Vaaks, another relatively ball-dominant player, the chase of Blackwell seemingly continued. It wouldn't have made sense for the Illini to continue to using recruiting resources on Blackwell if they didn't have legitimate hope of bringing in Blackwell alongside Stojakovic and Vaaks.
Why John Blackwell picking Duke or Louisville over Illinois wouldn't make sense
With that in mind – although it's entirely speculative – Blackwell appears to have distanced himself from Illinois in his recruitment. Again, there are many moving pieces – concerns that only Blackwell and his inner circle know – but from a hoops perspective, it seems thoroughly confusing to cross Illinois off the list and key on Duke and Louisville.
Starting with the Blue Devils, whom many initially believed had removed themselves from the Blackwell sweepstakes: They are loaded in the backcourt. Cayden Boozer announced his return recently, and he started seven games, averaging 7.7 points and 3.0 assists last year. If he chose to run it back in Durham, the expectation would be that he has a permanent starting role.
Fellow guard Caleb Foster, who started 30 of 33 games, is projected to return to Duke, as well. As if that isn't enough, there is a growing belief that standout shooting guard Isaiah Evans (15.0 points per game) will be back – and wing Dame Sarr, too. And let's not forget: The Blue Devils are bringing in the top-rated point guard prospect in the class of 2026 in Derron Rippey Jr., who surely is anticipating rotational minutes.
Again, all three of Foster, Evans and Sarr remain up in the air as the trio weigh their NBA options. But in all likelihood, at least two – and potentially all three – will be back at Duke. For now, the Blue Devils are in limbo, though. In turn, so is Blackwell.
Over in Louisville, Oregon transfer Jackson Shelstad will be running the show at lead guard while returning guard Adrian Wooley is expected to take a step forward after averaging 8.7 points last year. Arkansas transfer Karter Knox is also another high-usage wing and surefire starter.
Moral of the story: Wherever Blackwell goes – and that includes darkhorse destination UCLA – there are going to be questions about how so many mouths can be fed. Each squad already has enough ball-dominant players and scoring-oriented pieces.
Illinois may actually be the program that could give Blackwell the most control. Only with the Illini would he be the acting lead guard. And, not for nothing, his arrival would cement a national title favorite at just one location: Illinois.
But, again, there are so many moving pieces. Basketball fit is just one piece of the puzzle (although, for a player who presumably has NBA aspirations, it's admittedly a big one).
At the end of the day, it's not as though Blackwell can make a "bad" decision. Duke, Louisville and even UCLA will likely enter the 2026-27 season as a top-25 squad, with or without Blackwell. Toss him into the equation, and any of the trio would likely be top 10.
Still, it will be hard not to wonder what could have been if Blackwell doesn't elect to join the Illini and create arguably the most talented team the country has seen in quite some time.
This article was originally published on www.si.com/college/illinois as Why Illinois Has Faded in John Blackwell's Recruitment – And Why It's So Surprising.