It feels odd to get this deep into a season and be playing a conference foe for the first time. Xavier and Villanova haven’t met each other yet this season and now they will play twice in three weeks. This one is at home at the Cintas and it could prove vital to Xavier’s goal to getting out of that dreadful 7/8 game.
Villanova is led by William B. Finneran Endowed Head Coach Kevin Willard. There was some contentiousness early on as to how well endowed the coaching pick had been, but that has been answered by now. Villanova had chugged under Kyle Neptune, but it has taken Willard less than a season to put things right. Nova is top 30 in most metrics and exactly 30th in NET. That has them somewhere around a seven seed right now.
Nova’s five losses this season have come to BYU, Michigan, St. John’s, UConn, and Creighton. While that feels a little like pick the one that doesn’t fit, it speaks to how hard this team is too beat. They’ve played in a lot of close games, including two against Marquette and an OT game against Wisconsin, but they keep finding ways to win.
Team Fingerprint
Part of the reason that Villanova is so tough to beat is because they are back to playing incredibly slow basketball. If you recall those Jay Wright teams that take their time and work the ball around until they find a good shot, this team will seem familiar. They don’t shoot as well as those classic teams, but 36.2% from deep and 54.2% from two certainly isn’t bad. They are surprisingly bad (69%) from the line, but they get on the glass well and take care of the ball. It’s a very solid offense.
That seem things that makes Nova hard to beat also keeps their games close. They have won those because their defense is pretty good as well. It is not a defense that does anything incredibly well. They turn teams over some and don’t send them to the line, but teams shoot pretty well against them and get on the offensive glass well. They profile like a packline team that comes out to jump passing lanes at times. They are 32nd in defensive efficiency with only one component part (FTA/FGA) ranking in the top 40 nationally. That’s unusual.
Players
| Starting matchups | ||
|---|---|---|
| Acaden Lewis | Point Guard | All Wright |
| Freshman | Class | Sophomore |
| 6’2″, 180 | Measurements | 6’3″, 190 |
| 12.4/3.2/5.3 | Game line | 8/1.8/2.1 |
| 47/28.2/60 | Shooting line | 48.3/45.5/81.6 |
| Lewis was a Kentucky commit until they recruited over him so they could pay more money to players who are less suited to their needs. He’s been fantastic at the point for Nova this season, ranking third in assists per game in the Big East and pacing the conference in steals per game and steal rate. His main weakness has been his inconsistent outside shooting and consistently poor free throw shooting, but he looks like the kind of player that Villanova will be eager to keep around. | ||
| Bryce Lindsay | Shooting Guard | Malik Messina-Moore |
| Sophomore | Class | Senior |
| 6’3″, 194 | Measurements | 6’5″, 200 |
| 12.2/2.2/2.2 | Game line | 10.7/2.8/3.9 |
| 38.3/35.1/74.6 | Shooting line | 37.7/35/77.3 |
| Lindsay started the season looking like a breakout star, averaging 16.7 points per game and only failing to hit double figures once in the non-conference while shooting 44% from three. Since 2026 began, he’s only gotten into double figures 4 times, is averaging 8.7 per game in conference play and has and EFG% of 38.8. Surprisingly, his minutes and usage have remained fairly steady, but he’s gone from being frighteningly efficient to incredibly inefficient with those touches. | ||
| Tyler Perkins | Small Forward | Tre Carroll |
| Junior | Class | Senior |
| 6’4″, 212 | Measurements | 6’8″, 235 |
| 13.6/5.7/1.7 | Game line | 18/5.7/2.7 |
| 44.5/36.9/75.7 | Shooting line | 49.7/33.3/67.8 |
| Perkins is a holdover from the Neptune era and has been a dominant force in the Big East this season. He’s averaging 15.9 per game since conference play began on a .456/.349/.784 shooting line. He’s also grabbing almost 7 rebounds a game and using possessions at the 20th highest rate in the conference while turning the ball over less than once a game. He’s probably not Villanova’s best player overall, but he’s certainly the most likely candidate to go get them a bucket when they need one. | ||
| Matt Hodge | Power Forward | Filip Borovicanin |
| Freshman | Class | Senior |
| 6’8″, 220 | Measurements | 6’9″, 227 |
| 9.4/3.7/0.8 | Game line | 10.1/8/4.4 |
| 45.3/36.8/64.3 | Shooting line | 43/32.5/87.5 |
| Hodge was ruled ineligible by the NCAA last year, likely due to not having enough G-League experience, but has been a solid stretch 4 this year. He’s a low usage guy on offense, but he has been very efficient with his chances and has seen his shooting line improve in conference play. He doesn’t do a whole ton on the boards, but blocks shots well and shoots free throws surprisingly poorly for as good of a shooter as he is. | ||
| Duke Brennan | Center | Jovan Milicevic |
| Senior | Class | Sophomore |
| 6’11”, 245 | Measurements | 6’10”, 241 |
| 12.4/10.6/1.7 | Game line | 11.7/3.9/1.2 |
| 65.6/0/61.9 | Shooting line | 44.3/42.6/70.2 |
| Brennan has been an absolute monster in the middle for Villanova this season, putting up 12.5 points and 9.9 rebounds per game in conference play. He has been able to score that much despite shooting on just 13.3% of the possessions when he is on the floor, but his offensive rebounding prowess, he gets 3.5 per game, and ability to get to the line, 6.6 FTA per game, mean he generates those points without ever really having thigs geared towards him. He doesn’t really block shots, but the tradeoff is that he gets the 2nd most defensive rebounds of anyone in the league and is able to keep himself out of foul trouble most games. |
Reserves
Villanova is 296th in the country in bench minutes and only have two players getting more than 6 minutes per game off the bench since conference play began. One of them is veteran guard Devin Askew, who was at Kentucky and left before Bryce Hopkins had gotten there. He has torched the nets from deep in conference play at 43% and is an elite free throw shooter, adding solid distribution numbers to the mix as well. He does have a penchant for fouling this year, which he’s never really had before.
Malachi Palmer followed Kevin Willard from Maryland and is a catch and shoot threat who is making 46% of his threes in conference play. It would be unfair to say he doesn’t do anything else, but nothing else he does really jumps off the page. 7 footer Braden Pierce gets very little playing time and doesn’t rebound as well as one might expect a person of stature to, but he will spell Brennan if he gets in foul trouble.
Three Questions
– Which half of Xavier defense arrives for this game? In the first half against Marquette Xavier’s defense wasn’t spectacular, but it was good enough to get the job done. X forced some turnovers, got on the glass, and held the Golden Eagles to 35 in a fast paced game. In the second half they didn’t do much of anything well and allowed 52 points, 36 in the paint alone. Anthony Robinson could be a factor as he figures to match well against Nova’s big body posts.
– Can Xavier avoid the one v ones? Xavier’s offense isn’t exactly excellent when they keep the ball moving, but it is far better than when it turns into watching Tre Carroll try to beat his man over and over. Villanova’s defense is pretty mediocre at forcing teams to break them down. Good ball movement will eventually break the Wildcats.
– Will All Wright get hot? Wright is the 27th best three point shooter in college basketball. In the first half against Marquette he was torch hot and hunting his shot. He got eight attempts up and scored 16. In the second half he didn’t attempt a field goal. Wright changes the offense when he is going, but he seems reluctant at times to hunt shots. He needs to.
Three Keys
– Control the pace: Xavier wants to go fast, Villanova wants to go slow. Nova has played three games with over 70 possessions and has lost two of them. Neither of the Wildcats two OT games has hit that 70 possession mark. They do not want to run at all. The more Xavier can get out and go, the better.
– Guard the line: Xavier has actually been pretty good at limiting opponent’s three point attempts this season. Villanova, as always, gets up a lot of threes. 38% of Nova’s points come from behind the arc, good for 35th in the nation. Xavier allows only 27.8% of points against them from deep. Making Nova go inside will be the goal. From there, it’s on the bigs to defend and not foul.
– Get bench production: Against Marquette Xavier got 12/5/0 in 41 minutes from the bench. That’s not awful, but almost all of that came from Isaiah Walker and Roddie Anderson. No bench big did anything worth talking about. Getting 11 from the guards is respectable enough, but X needs someone with some size to show up for this one.