37.9 inches of snow have fallen in Rhode Island. That is, if you’re scoring at home, a lot of snow. In southern Ohio it would probably shut life down for a week. In northern Ohio it would be a massive inconvenience. In the snow belt it would be a December storm. (Seriously, don’t move east of Cleveland without four wheel drive and multiple snow blowers.) In Providence it meant that the game Xavier was supposed to play on Tuesday evening will instead be played on Wednesday. One can only imagine what this has done to the roof of the Amica Mutual. Rare are the times Hinkle isn’t the worst arena you play in a week, but life amazes.
Providence comes into this game with Kim English probably coaching for his job. The Friars were picked to finish fourth in the Big East and started the season as a top 50 KenPom team. They saw off Holy Cross by 10 before things went sideways. They are now 12-15 (5-11) and have gone from an at large contender to a team just playing out an increasingly miserable string. English is now in his third season. The Friars are stagnant. He desperately needs some momentum.
Team Fingerprint
If you only ever watched Providence play offense you might think that garnering some momentum wouldn’t be that hard. The Friars have the third best offense in the Big East and 28th in the nation. They shoot the ball reasonably well from everywhere but are at their best inside the arc and at the line. They also rebound mediocrely and don’t turn the ball over a lot. They’ve gone over 100 three times and over 90 another five.
They’ve also lost four of those games including all of them in which they scored 100+. Providence has the second worst defense in the conference and nearly 200th in the nation. They don’t force turnovers, they tend to get torched from deep, they don’t block shots, they send teams to the line too much. It’s all bad. In the first matchup Xavier ran away with the game in the second half because Providence allowed 1.21 points per possession and forced only four turnovers in the entire game.
Players
Starting matchups
Stefan Vaaks Point Guard All Wright
Freshman Class Sophomore
6’7″, 212 Measurements 6’3″, 190
15.7/2.4/3.2 Game line 7.9/1.7/2
40/33.6/84.3 Shooting line 48.4/44.6/81.6
Is he a true point? Probably not. Does he lead the starters in assist rate by a fair margin? Yes. He’s a volume scorer who chucks almost 9 threes a game in conference play and is excellent from the line. He probably shouldn’t shoot quite as much as he does, but he’s not exactly surrounded by dynamic second options and he rarely turns the ball over, so he’s as good a choice as any when it comes time to put one up.
Jaylin Sellers Shooting Guard Malik Messina-Moore
Senior Class Senior
6’5″, 205 Measurements 6’5″, 200
17.3/4.2/1.7 Game line 11.2/3/4
47/41.4/87.8 Shooting line 38.4/34.1/78.8
The only player on the team who shoots as much as Vaaks, Sellers outpaces him by nearly five percentage points of EFG%. He’s a three-level scorer with a knack for getting to the line, where he’s borderline automatic. He turns it over more than his running mate and can be a little foul-prone, but he and Vaaks carry the load for the Friars.
Jamier Jones Small Forward Tre Carroll
Freshman Class Senior
6’6″, 218 Measurements 6’8″, 235
12.1/4.5/1.5 Game line 18.6/5.9/2.7
59.1/44.4/68 Shooting line 50.9/35.8/68.1
Jones is a dead-eye shooter from deep but in very low volume; his real gift is for slashing and getting to the line. He’s third in the league in free throw rate, but the value of that stat is dragged down a bit by his poor shooting from the line. He’s also a solid defensive rebounder on a team occasionally hurting for help on the glass.
Ryan Mela Power Forward Filip Borovicanin
Sophomore Class Senior
6’7″, 205 Measurements 6’9″, 227
8.6/5.1/2 Game line 9.6/7.9/4.3
48/23.1/79.4 Shooting line 41.2/30.7/86.8
Mela just kind of slots into the lineup. He doesn’t get a lot of usage and he doesn’t have any single skill set that jumps off the page, but he chips in on the glass, converts from the line, and is a reliable two-point shooter. He’s not going to blow you away with defensive productivity and his coaching staff would probably like him to stop shooting quite so many threes, but he’s a solid, fairly consistent glue guy. If the game is won or lost based on his performance, something anomalous has happened.
Oswin Erhunmwunse Center Jovan Milicevic
Sophomore Class Sophomore
6’10”, 235 Measurements 6’10”, 241
7.4/8.4/0.7 Game line 12/4/1.4
69.4/0/55.1 Shooting line 45/43.5/70.5
Absolutely the consummate big man. He’s got a low usage rate, but he’s top 5 in the conference in EFG%, OReb%, DReb%, block rate, and two-point shooting. He fouls a lot and he has missed more than half the FTs he has taken in Big East play, but he’s a mountain in the paint on both ends.
Providence’s roster has been thinned a bit of late by injuries and suspensions. Forward Duncan Powell was getting almost 20 minutes per game and averaging 4.9/3.1/0.8, but he’s benched by the league indefinitely until he deals with that hair situation.
Vandy transfer guard Jason Edwards has been excellent when he has played, averaging 17.3/2.9/3.2 in 19 games played, but plantar fascitis has limited him to just 3 games since these teams last met. When he’s on the floor, he’s a high-scoring combo guard who shoots it well enough to necessitate respect and does well in ball security and distribution. Corey Floyd is averaging 8.2/4.3/2.6 per game as a combo guard, but he’s nursing a hamstring injury that has kept him out for four of the team’s last six games. When he’s in, he’s a respectable shooter and a solid rebounder, but he turns the ball over too much and has a tendency to disappear for stretches.
The only bench player who has gotten 10+ minutes in each of the last three games is 6’8″ senior big Cole Hargrove. He’s a Drexel transfer with a comically low 7.5% shots percentage; he has attempted 33 field goals in 23 games. He’s a decent rebounder, especially on the offensive end, but he fouls 8 times per 40 minutes of play and averages 2.1/2.9/0.5. This roster is in shambles.
Three Questions
– What impact does the weather have? No, this isn’t like back in the day when you and your boys would have to shovel a court clear to play, but a simple Google of “Providence snow will show you what the area is up against. Attendance, travel, rest, the officials, and myriad other things can go wrong when over three feet of snow fall.
– Can Xavier rally? The Musketeers have taken gut punches in their last two games. Against Villanova they went blow for blow with the Wildcats until things finally got away in overtime. Against Butler they went down 21 and roared back to within two before finally succumbing. The Musketeers have been resilient all season during games, now they need to show they can keep a two game slide from becoming three.
– Will a bench big man show up? The first matchup came at the end of Pape N’Diaye’s run. He went for 4/6/2 and blocked two in 19 excellent minutes off the bench. Anthony Robinson didn’t play. Against Butler both played. Their line? 0/1/0. Both can be good, one of them needs to be.
Three Keys
– Take care of the ball again: Xavier is basically guaranteed to lose if they turn the ball over at 17% clip or higher. That goes to show how small their margin is, because that isn’t a high number. In the first game Xavier played as close to a perfect game as you realistically can. If they do that again they’ll keep Providence’s high octane offense from at least scoring easy buckets.
– Win the rebounding “battle”: These teams are not particularly adept at collecting the ball when it comes off the rim. Providence is 102nd in offensive rebounding, Xavier is 104th in defensive rebounding. Xavier is 315th in offensive rebounding, Providence is 206th in defensive rebounding. They may be evenly matched, but it’s not exactly two heavyweights going at it. Xavier was excellent on the defensive glass the first time around, and that also contributed to Providence’s offense not quite being able to keep pace.
– Don’t dig a hole: Xavier may be able to score on Providence, but if they put themselves down 21 again they won’t be trying to come back against a team that can’t score with serious help from the officials. The Friars can score and score and score. You can punch with them, but a run can turn into an avalanche. Earlier this season they went on a 16-3 run that barely took three minutes. They can go.