Wisconsin vs. Michigan State Preview and Prediction: Another upset in the cards?

Wisconsin head coach Greg Gard, left, speaks with assistant coach :Lance Randall during the second half of their game Tuesday, January 6, 2026 at the Kohl Center in Madison, Wisconsin. Wisconsin beat UCLA 80-72. | Mark Hoffman/Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Wisconsin Badgers take on another AP top-10 conference opponent this Friday, as the No. 10 Michigan State Spartans come to the Kohl Center. Tip-off is at 7:00 PM on Fox, and the Spartans are slim 2.5-point favorites.

On Tuesday, Wisconsin added another remarkable road win to its NCAA Tournament resume, defeating No. 8 Illinois in overtime 92-90. John Blackwell and Nick Boyd were sensational against the Illini, with both guards scoring a combined 49 points. Austin Rapp chipped in 18 points off the bench, including two massive three-pointers late in the second half. 

The Badgers’ two road wins at No. 2 Michigan and No. 8 Illinois are perhaps the most impressive wins of any men’s college basketball team this season. Now, Wisconsin has another opportunity to notch another Quad 1 victory to its resume, this time at home. What should Badger fans know about the Michigan State Spartans?

Opponent Preview

It’s business as usual for Tom Izzo in his 31st season at East Lansing. Michigan State is 20-4 on the season and is tied for third in the Big Ten with a 10-4 conference record. Once again, the Spartans’ key to success has been their defense and rebounding. Michigan State is second in the Big Ten, allowing a mere 65.6 points per game and total rebounds with 41.4 rebounds per game. Ken Pomeroy currently has the Spartans fourth in adjusted defensive efficiency.      

The most notable Spartan player, for both good and bad reasons, has been guard Jeremy Fears Jr. Fears is Michigan State’s leading scorer with 15.1 points per game and leads the Big Ten with 9.1 assists per game. In the Spartans’ last game, an overtime victory at home against Illinois, Fears was tremendous, scoring 26 points and dishing out 15 assists in Michigan State’s 85-82 win on February 7th. 

However, Fears Jr. has gathered attention in the last three games for questionable antics. Against Michigan, Fears Jr. committed a flagrant foul on Michigan’s Yaxel Lendeborg and appeared later to trip Lendeborg in the game. Against Minnesota on February 4th, Fears Jr. received a technical foul for kicking guard Langston Reynolds, prompting Izzo to threaten to bench Fears Jr. During the Illinois game, there appeared to be a third trip committed by Fears Jr. on Illini forward David Mirkovic. I’ll let you be the judge:

After the Spartans’ 83-71 loss to Michigan on January 20th, Izzo has started three forwards, Coen Carr, Jaxon Kohler, Jordan Scott, and one center, Carson Cooper, in addition to Fears Jr. The most notable is Kohler, who is Michigan State’s second leading scorer at 12.8 points per game and ranks second in the Big Ten with 9.4 rebounds per game. Against Illinois, Kohler pulled down 16 rebounds in the overtime victory. Kohler can also stretch the floor, as he’s shooting 41.4 percent from behind the three-point line. 

Carr, one of the best dunkers in college basketball, averages 11.4 points per game behind Fears Jr. and Kohler. Scott has started the last two games for the Spartans and averages 5.4 points, 3.2 rebounds, and 0.9 assists per game on the season. Cooper averages 10.0 points per game but is another stellar rebounder with 7.2 rebounds per game.  

Score Prediction

This game figures to be a classic, with Wisconsin possessing one of the Big Ten’s best offenses against Michigan State’s stellar defense. Michigan State is understandably favored in this one, but they have struggled in their last two road games, including an upset loss at Minnesota.

The Badgers have momentum coming into this game, and I think they find a way to earn another top 10 win to further cement themselves in the NCAA Tournament.  

Prediction: Wisconsin 75-74