Wisconsin or High Point? How to pick 5 vs 12 matchup in 2026 March Madness bracket originally appeared on The Sporting News.
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A Big Ten vs. Big South matchup is on the horizon in the 2026 NCAA Tournament.
After a 25-win season, the Wisconsin Badgers will be the higher seed, No. 5, as they take on the 12th-seeded High Point Panthers in the West Region of the bracket.
The two squads will meet in Portland, Oregon, with the 30-win Panthers looking to add to the all-time list of 12 vs. 5 upsets. Can they take down one of the Big Ten’s best?
Here’s your guide to making a pick for Wisconsin vs. High Point in March Madness.
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Wisconsin vs. High Point odds
In the first-round matchup, Wisconsin opens as a heavy favorite over High Point at -10.5, per DraftKings. High Point is returning to the tournament after its debut in 2025, while the Badgers have won at least one March Madness game in five of their last seven appearances.
Below are the details of the game, including betting odds, time, TV and venue:
- Odds: Wisconsin (-10.5)
- Date: Thursday, March 19
- Time: 1:50 p.m. ET
- TV: TBS
- Arena: Moda Center, Portland, Washington
WATCH: Stream Wisconsin vs. High Point live through DIRECTV
Wisconsin (24-10, 14-6 in Big Ten)
Wisconsin followed a familiar pattern from last season, starting out with tempered expectations but easily punching a ticket to the NCAA Tournament. The Badgers were the only team to beat Michigan in Ann Arbor and beat Illinois in Champaign, so they know how to win in tough environments.
Like last year, Greg Gard’s team is no longer a defensive juggernaut that will go cold offensively when it matters most. Wisconsin doesn’t force many turnovers but doesn’t commit many either, taking care of the ball, and the offense relies heavily on the 3-pointer. While the Badgers are far from the most efficient team from deep, their volume of 3-point shots has them in the top 40 in the country in points per game.
Nick Boyd and John Blackwell are both veteran scorers who have played in the NCAA Tournament. Boyd was part of FAU’s Final Four team, is efficient from the field and is Wisconsin’s leader in both points and assists, while Blackwell can get hot from deep in a hurry but slumped a bit down the stretch when the Badgers suffered losses to both Oregon and Ohio State.
Wisconsin doesn’t exactly dominate the glass. Nolan Winter is a strong rebounder, but he’s the only player on the roster averaging a block per game or anything close to it, with 6-10 sophomore Austin Rapp struggling to match his freshman production on the glass after transferring from Portland. Still, it’s hard to say this mattered much when Wisconsin beat two terrific rebounding teams on the road in Michigan and Illinois before nearly taking down the Wolverines a second time.
- NET ranking: 25th
- KenPom ranking: 22nd
- Quad 1 record: 8-8
- Quad 2 record: 5-1
- Quad 3 record: 5-1
- Quad 4 record: 6-0
- Offensive efficiency ranking: 11th
- Defensive efficiency ranking: 51st
Key players
Nick Boyd, G, Sr. (6-3, 170): 20.6 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 4.2 apg
John Blackwell, G, Jr. (6-4, 194): 19.0 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 3.2 apg
Nolan Winter, F, Jr. (6-11, 220): 13.3 ppg, 8.6 rpg, 1.2 bpg
Andrew Rohde, G, Sr. (6-6, 185): 5.7 ppg, 2.1 rpg, 2.8 apg
Austin Rapp, F, So. (6-10, 230): 9.6 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 1.6 apg
SN AWARDS: All-America team | Player of the Year | Coach of the Year
High Point (30-4, 15-1 in Big South)
High Point is in the NCAA Tournament for the second consecutive year, with sights set on a win after falling to Purdue in the opening round last year.
The Panthers lost only four games this season, though metrics have them slightly behind where they were a year ago. High Point didn’t face a loaded non-conference schedule by any means, which was likely out of the program’s control, but there will be questions about how ready the Panthers are to face high-level competition. High Point’s best non-conference win, by KenPom rating, came against Furman on opening night.
What the Panthers do have in their favor is experience, as their three leading scorers are all seniors who, in some cases, have more than four years under their belt. Terry Anderson and Cam’Ron Fletcher are both reliable scorers close to the basket and strong rebounders as well, while undersized SEMO transfer Rob Martin hasn’t been as consistent as High Point hoped and will need an efficient day for this team to win an NCAA Tournament game.
While 90 points per game is nothing to ignore, High Point leads the nation in steals per game with 10.9 and holds opponents to 31.7 percent from 3-point range. Those marks might not hold up against the level of competition on this stage, but with six rotation players averaging at least a steal per game, the Panthers’ best shot at an upset likely goes through forcing turnovers and taking advantage of those additional opportunities. -Dan Treacy
- NET ranking: 76th
- KenPom ranking: 92nd
- Quad 1 record: 0-0
- Quad 2 record: 0-2
- Quad 3 record: 5-2
- Quad 4 record: 22-0
- Offensive efficiency ranking: 66th
- Defensive efficiency ranking: 161st
Key players
Terry Anderson, F, Sr. (6-6, 190): 16.0 ppg, 6.0 rpg, 1.4 spg
Rob Martin, G, Sr. (5-10, 160): 15.3 ppg, 3.7 apg, 1.6 spg
Cam’Ron Fletcher, F, Sr. (6-6, 215): 12.7 ppg, 6.9 rpg, 1.2 spg
Owen Aquino, G, Sr. (6-8, 230): 9.4 ppg, 5.9 rpg, 1.7 bpg
Scotty Washington, G, Sr. (6-4, 165): 8.7 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 0.9 apg
HISTORY OF UPSETS BY SEED:
16 vs. 1 | 15 vs. 2 | 14 vs. 3 | 13 vs. 4 | 12 vs. 5
Wisconsin vs. High Point prediction
There have been at least two 12 vs. 5 upsets in three of the last four NCAA Tournaments — including Wisconsin being on the wrong end in 2024, when it fell to No. 12 James Madison in the first round.
However, if you’re going to make a 12-5 upset pick this year, you may be better off eyeing a different game. High Point not facing a Quad 1 team this season, while going 0-2 against Quad 2 teams, doesn’t bode well for the Panthers’ chances against a Wisconsin squad that ranked top-25 in NET ranking, KenPom ranking and offensive efficiency.
Wisconsin has a pair of top-level scorers in Boyd and Blackwell who should thrive against High Point’s 161st-ranked defense — the Badgers should be able to control the tempo of this game. As long as Wisconsin can play some average defense, it shouldn’t have trouble building a lead.
One of the Badgers’ biggest strengths, taking care of the basketball, doesn’t match up well for High Point, which thrives off turnovers. It would take a sloppy performance from Wisconsin to fall in the first round, which appears unlikely for a team that was tied for second in the Big Ten with just 8.9 turnovers per game.
It can be smart to throw in at least one 12-seed upset, but despite High Point posting 30 wins this season, this is a matchup Wisconsin can handle. The Badgers are the pick here.
SN EXPERT BRACKETS:DeCourcy (Arizona) | Bender (Michigan) | Iyer (Arizona) | Gay (UCLA women)
History of 5 vs. 12 matchups in NCAA Tournament
The 5 vs. 12 matchups tend to be around the cutoff line for at least one happening every March. But when there is one, there’s typically another in the same year.
In 2025, Colorado State took down Memphis as a 12-5 upset, while No. 12 McNeese also beat No. 5 Clemson. In 2024, there were a pair of 12-5 upsets as well, with James Madison and Grand Canyon pulling them off.
Here is a look back at recent upsets in 5-vs-12 matchups:
| Year | Result |
| 2025 | Colorado State 78, Memphis 70 |
| 2025 | McNeese 69, Clemson 67 |
| 2024 | James Madison 72, Wisconsin 61 |
| 2024 | Grand Canyon 75, Saint Mary’s 66 |
| 2022 | Richmond 67, Iowa 63 |
| 2022 | New Mexico State 70, UConn 63 |
| 2021 | Oregon State 70, Tennessee 56 |
| 2019 | Murray State 83, Marquette 64 |
| 2019 | Liberty 80, Mississippi State 76 |
| 2019 | Oregon 72, Wisconsin 54 |
| 2017 | Middle Tennessee 81, Minnesota 72 |
| 2016 | Yale 79, Baylor 75 |
| 2016 | Little Rock 85, Purdue 83 (2 OTs) |
| 2014 | Stephen F. Austin 77, VCU 75 (OT) |
| 2014 | North Dakota State 80, Oklahoma 75 (OT) |
| 2014 | Harvard 61, Cincinnati 57 |
| 2013 | Oregon 68, Oklahoma State 55 |
| 2013 | California 64, UNLV 61 |
| 2013 | Ole Miss 57, Wisconsin 46 |
| 2012 | VCU 62, Wichita State 59 |
| 2012 | South Florida 58, Temple 44 |
Dan Treacy contributed to this article.