Will Illinois win the South Region? Picks, predictions for Sweet 16

GREENVILLE, SOUTH CAROLINA – MARCH 21: (L-R) Keaton Wagler #23, Ben Humrichous #3, Tomislav Ivisic #13 and David Mirkovic #0 of the Illinois Fighting Illini speak during the second half against the VCU Rams in the second round of the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Bon Secours Wellness Arena on March 21, 2026 in Greenville, South Carolina. (Photo by Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Let me start with the fact that I’m too young to remember much from Illinois’ run to the national championship game in 2005. I was eight years old, and while I was a fan of the Illini, I didn’t really understand what was going on.

The 20 years since have been a mix of good and bad — mostly bad.

So with Illinois on the verge for the second time in three of the Final Four, let me just say that I LOVE this bracket.

If there was ever a year that Illinois would end up making the Final Four again, I love that it will go through the Big Ten West.

If the Illini can knock off Houston on Thursday night, they will meet either No. 4 Nebraska or No. 9 Iowa in the Elite Eight. The winner of the Big Ten West championship game will book a trip to Indy. Amazing. Just the way it was meant to be.

So will it happen? Here’s what I think:

No. 2 Houston vs. No. 3 Illinois

According to FanDuel Sportsbook, Houston opened Saturday night as a 2.5-point favorite. That line is holding as of this writing on Sunday night.

The Cougars getting one bucket tells me that the oddsmakers are respecting the Illini, even if this game is literally taking place in Houston.

Houston thrives on the boards and is among the nation’s best at rebounding. So are the Illini. If I had to make one prediction, I think this game is won the boards, especially the offensive glass.

Can David Mirkovic put up another Penn-esque effort? Will Tomi & Z be big contributors on the boards, or more passive as we saw at times in Big Ten play?

My heart tells me that Illinois finds a way to get it done, and we’re not repeating 2022. Brad Underwood’s squad advances to the Elite Eight.

Illinois 78, Houston 72

No. 4 Nebraska vs. No. 9 Iowa

Throw the seedings out when the Huskers and Hawkeyes meet up. FanDuel has this as a 3.5-point edge for Fred Hoiberg’s crew.

Can you blame them? While Nebraska won a lot of games this season, they struggled with Iowa. The Hawkeyes won a January matchup in Iowa City, and on the final day of the regular season, the Hawkeyes took the Huskers to the wire in a 84-75 Nebraska win.

Iowa feels a little bit like a team of destiny. In a year without a lot of Cinderellas, them pulling off that win over No. 1 Florida is making me give them the edge that they can take the rubber match in this Big Ten rivalry.

I’ll take Iowa.

Iowa 75, Nebraska 66

Let’s see how close I am, and if Illinois/Iowa is actually for a trip to the Final Four on Saturday night.

What do you think?