If you don't plan on picking a No. 1 seed to win the 2026 NCAA Tournament, there's a very good chance your bracket will be completely busted by the time the Final Four arrives.
During this Wednesday's edition of "Pardon My Take," Big Cat of Barstool Sports pointed out that 17 of the last 18 national champions have been either No. 1 seeds or UConn. The only team that didn't fit that criteria was No. 2 Villanova during the 2016 NCAA Tournament.
Villanova defeated No. 1 seed North Carolina in the 2016 national championship thanks to a game-winning 3-pointer from Kris Jenkins. Even though Jay Wright's squad wasn't one of the top four seeds entering the tournament, they showed championship potential heading into March.
The only real upset over the past 18 years came from UConn in 2014. Kevin Ollie managed to lead a No. 7 seed all the way to the championship, taking down No. 2 Villanova, No. 3 Iowa State, No. 4 Michigan State, No. 1 Florida and No. 8 Kentucky.
Here's every winner over the past 18 tournaments:
- 2025: No. 1 Florida
- 2024: No. 1 UConn
- 2023: No. 4 UConn
- 2022: No. 1 Kansas
- 2021: No. 1 Baylor
- 2020: tournament canceled
- 2019: No. 1 Virginia
- 2018: No. 1 Villanova
- 2017: No. 1 North Carolina
- 2016 No. 2 Villanova
- 2015: No. 1 Duke
- 2014: No. 7 UConn
- 2013: No. 1 Louisville
- 2012: No. 1 Kentucky
- 2011: No. 3 UConn
- 2010: No. 1 Duke
- 2009: No. 1 North Carolina
- 2008: No. 1 Kansas
- 2007: No. 1 Florida
What does this mean for this year's tournament?
If we're simply letting history decide your bracket, then you should ride with one of the four No. 1 seeds in this tournament – Arizona, Duke, Florida Michigan.
You could also go with No. 2 seed UConn, which is in the same region as Duke. That wouldn't be a huge surprise considering we've already seen Dan Hurley lead two different teams to a championship.
The opening round of the NCAA Tournament begins this Thursday afternoon.
This story was originally published by The Spun on Mar 18, 2026, where it first appeared in the College Basketball section. Add The Spun as a Preferred Source by clicking here.