North Carolina will open NCAA Tournament play on Thursday when it faces VCU at 6:50 p.m. Eastern.
VCU is a seasoned bracket-buster — the type of opponent that has ended many higher seeds’ runs before they ever got started. If the Tar Heels get past the Rams, a likely second-round matchup with No. 3 seed Illinois would be even more daunting. With Hubert Davis’ seat starting to warm and a once-promising season on the brink, North Carolina could be headed for another early exit from the NCAA Tournament and a second straight year without a trip past the first weekend.
Here is why UNC will — or won’t — survive the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament.
UNC will survive because …
Home-court edge: UNC will be playing in Greenville, South Carolina, which is Tar Heel territory. Greenville is a 3 1/2-hour drive from Chapel Hill, an hour and a half from Charlotte and about an hour and 15 minutes from Asheville. Those are manageable trips for many North Carolina fans, so expect the arena to be Carolina blue when the Tar Heels are on the floor.
Backcourt play: Outside of Seth Trimble, North Carolina’s backcourt has been inconsistent throughout the season. Luka Bogavac needs to be an efficient shooter, Dixon needs to be the player we saw against Virginia and Clemson in the second half last week, and Evans, Powell and Young must provide quality production off the bench.
Henri Veesaar: In his last game, Veesaar posted a double-double with 28 points, 17 rebounds and two blocks. The Tar Heels will need similar performances from him if they are going to make a run.
UNC wont survive because …
Rebounding issues: While it may not show up against VCU, it could if Illinois advances to the second round to face North Carolina. Carolina struggled on the glass late in the season, and Illinois ranks 11th nationally in rebounding, powered by its size. Of the eight players who log the most minutes, all but one are 6-foot-6 or taller. That does not bode well for UNC, considering only Luka Bogavac is a 6-foot-6 guard.
Inability to guard the perimeter: The Tar Heels have allowed opponents to shoot 34.5% from 3-point range, which ranks 238th nationally and 14th in the ACC. In nine games, UNC allowed opponents to hit 40% or better from beyond the arc. The Tar Heels were last in conference play in 3-point defense, allowing opponents to shoot 38.5% from deep.
Free throw shooting: North Carolina is shooting 68.4% from the free-throw line, which ranks 315th nationally and 15th in the ACC. Only two players are at 75% or better: Jaydon Young (75%) and Derek Dixon (81.8%). UNC’s three leading scorers — Caleb Wilson, Seth Trimble and Henri Veesaar — are at just 67.2%, 67.2% and 62%.
It has plagued UNC all season, especially in close games. Poor free-throw shooting has fueled opponents’ late rallies and cost the Tar Heels wins. Case in point: their 80-79 loss to Clemson in the ACC Tournament, when they missed seven free throws. Make just two more, and UNC likely completes the comeback and stays in the hunt for its first ACC Tournament title since 2016.
Follow us @TarHeelsWire on X and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of North Carolina Tar Heels news, notes and opinions.
This article originally appeared on Tar Heels Wire: UNC Basketball: Why the Tar Heels will — or won’t — survive the first weekend