With September just a few days away, the new NBA season is quickly approaching, and discussions have already begun on what we might expect for the 2026-27 campaign. After so much player movement across the league, it’s impossible to gauge how the situation will look come February, but the Oklahoma City Thunder are sure to be in the mix somewhere near the top.
While some suspect Thunder star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will be on track to win his third-straight MVP award, others aren’t so sure. ESPN’s Brian Windhorst, for example, cited history to explain why Shai will be at a disadvantage in the upcoming MVP race.
“There’s something that happens: you can win 2 MVPs in a row, but, for some reason, the standard for winning the third just gets very, very high,” said Windhorst. “The last guy to win 3 MVPs in a row was Larry Bird. By the way, most of the contested/hot button MVPs were when guys were trying to win their third. Michael Jordan won in ‘91 & ‘92, and Barkley won in ‘93, which has been debated for years. LeBron won 2 in a row twice. And the one time in between was Derrick Rose. I think Rose was amazing that year, but a lot of people think that was a flaw.”
It’s harder than ever to maintain prolonged, consistent greatness. We haven’t had a three-peat NBA champion since the early 2000s Lakers, led by Kobe Bryant and Shaquille O’Neal. As far as MVPs, there has not been a three-straight winner since Larry Bird in 1986. No player since then has matched the feat, including Michael Jordan, LeBron James, Stephen Curry, and Nikola Jokic.
According to Windhorst, the “voting fatigue” phenomenon is very real in that voters prefer not to give the award to the same person every year. That’s why winning consecutive MVPs is so hard, and it’s why Shai’s MVP odds may not be as high as you’d think. He’s already won the past two MVPs, and he’s coming off a summer where his team failed to meet championship expectations (lost the Conference Finals in seven games to the Spurs).
Still, if there’s any player who can break tradition and beat the odds, it’s Shai. At 28, the 6’6″ guard has just hit his prime, and there’s reason to think that his best is yet to come. With averages of 31.3 points, 4.3 rebounds, 6.6 assists, 1.4 steals, and 0.8 blocks per game on 55.3% shooting last season, there’s no doubt he has the skill, the talent, and the drive to have another MVP-worthy campaign. The question is, can he beat out the competition?
With stars like Victor Wembanyama, Luka Doncic, Anthony Edwards, and Jalen Brunson, SGA will have to play above and beyond to sway the MVP voters. Plus, the Thunder as a team will have to maintain a top-two record in the West, which depends on various factors outside Shai’s control.
Fortunately, regardless of how the voting pans out, Shai won’t be playing for another MVP. All he’s worried about is winning another championship and following in the footsteps of some of the greatest basketball legends.