The 2026 men's NCAA Tournament is shaping up to be top-heavy once again.
While we all love a good Cinderella story and a double-digit seed making a run deep into March Madness, it feels increasingly risky to pick anyone outside of the top handful of teams to still be playing college basketball on the final weekend of the season. There's upset potential every year, sure, but this year feels like the chance for a Final Four bid is reserved exclusively for a handful of teams.
Here's one best guess at which teams will be playing the deepest into the tournament.
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March Madness Sweet 16 predictions
In the West, a steady Wisconsin team led by two stellar guards in John Blackwell and Nick Boyd is primed to score an upset of No. 4 seed Arkansas while No. 2 seed Purdue seems to have turned things around enough to take care of Gonzaga.
Michigan and Iowa State are the clear-cut favorites in the Midwest and should advance, just like No. 1 seed Duke and No. 2 seed UConn in the East. If you're looking for an upset, No. 5 seed Vanderbilt is built for an upset of No. 1 Florida in the South, while No. 2 Houston should be able to handle No. 3 Illinois in an entertaining game.
March Madness Elite 8 predictions
Houston will get to play a regional final game in its home city, which should be plenty good enough to get the Cougars into the Final Four. After peaking early in the season, Michigan might be set up to fall short of the Final Four and Iowa State is talented enough to pull it off. UConn and Purdue have looked like title contenders throughout the year, but their hopes end here at the hands of Duke and Arizona, respectively.
March Madness Final Four predictions
Duke has lost just one game since New Year's Eve, and the Blue Devils' two losses have come by a combined four points. Game by game, the sport's No. 4 offense and No. 2 defense according to KenPom.com has simply done what's necessary to win, and this year that will lead them past Houston in a rematch from last year's Final Four heartbreak at the hands of the Cougars.
The other national semifinal features an Iowa State team that lost both games it played against Arizona this season. That's not a knock on the Cyclones: The Wildcats entered the tournament 32-2, and both of those losses came in consecutive games at Kansas and at home against Texas Tech in overtime.
Tommy Lloyd has built a juggernaut at Arizona, and after making the Sweet 16 in three of the previous four seasons, he's due to break through here.
National champion predictions
Duke vs. Arizona figures to be a terrifically entertaining game featuring the two teams who put together the most consistent bodies of work all year. The Wildcats might be the favorite against a Duke team that entered the tournament with injury issues, but this feels like the year coach Jon Scheyer gets it done in the final game.
Ohio State men's basketball beat writer Adam Jardy can be reached at ajardy@dispatch.com, on Bluesky at @cdadamjardy.bsky.social or on Twitter at @AdamJardy.
This article originally appeared on The Columbus Dispatch: Final Four picks: Columbus Dispatch March Madness predictions for NCAA bracket