Despite what has been a season chock-full full of losses, Northwestern women’s basketball still has hopes of qualifying for the Big Ten tournament and thus making March Madness via the automatic bid. Standing at 2-13 in Big Ten play after its recent blowout loss to Michigan State, NU’s path is not obvious; yet, there is still a faint glimmering light at the end of the tunnel.
The ‘Cats currently stand at 16th in the conference and must jump either Indiana or Purdue to finish amongst the top-15 Big Ten teams and advance to the tournament in Indianapolis, IN, which will take place in early March. Standout senior Grace Sullivan and her Wildcats must win at least two of the remaining three games on their schedule if they wish to give soon-to-be-retired head coach Joe McKeown one last dance. Still on the schedule are Illinois, Maryland and Purdue.
The most likely outcome
Unfortunately, the most likely outcome is that Northwestern falls short of qualifying for the tournament. To win two of its remaining three games and give themselves a chance, the Wildcats must split against top competition in Illinois and Maryland before beating Purdue. Illinois is 18-8 overall, 8-7 in the Big Ten, and is led by Berry Wallace, who scored 29 points in the Fighting Illini’s victory over the ‘Cats earlier this year. Maryland, the 14th-ranked team in the country, is 21-6 overall, 9-6 in the Big Ten, and is coming off recent road wins against Ohio State and Michigan State. ESPN’s Matchup Predictor gives Northwestern a 9.1% chance of beating Illinois and a 1.4% chance of taking down Maryland.
Thus, the heavy favorite right now regarding NU’s season outlook is two more losses, extending its losing streak to ten, and rendering the season finale against Purdue meaningless. Even if it can split against Illinois and Maryland, there is no guarantee that results around the conference will go Northwestern’s way to give it a chance to make the tournament.
Hopping The hoosiers
One path to the Big Ten Tournament for the Wildcats is leapfrogging Indiana in the standings. The Hoosiers are 14-13 overall, but at 3-12 in the Big Ten, they only lie one game above the ‘Cats. A one-game gap seems very doable, but there are two big issues.
Firstly, Indiana owns the head-to-head over Northwestern. The Hoosiers picked up their first BIG win of the season against the Wildcats on Feb. 1st in a game where Indiana led 30-3 after the first quarter. Indiana then won its next two games, against Wisconsin and Purdue, giving it an upper hand on the ‘Cats. This head-to-head victory over Northwestern means that Indiana’s one-game lead is more like two; if the teams finish tied in the standings, Indiana will advance via tiebreaker. If Indiana loses the rest of its games and finishes at 3-15 in the Big Ten, Northwestern still has to win two of its remaining three to finish at 4-14.
The second problem is Indiana’s schedule. Remaining for the Hoosiers are Oregon (18-9 overall, 6-8 in BIG), Rutgers (9-17 overall, 1-14 in BIG), and Penn State (9-17 overall, 2-13 in BIG). That’s just about as easy as it gets. Indiana plays two of the Big Ten’s worst three teams, and it would be surprising if they lost both. Even if Indiana wins only one of its remaining games, Northwestern would have to win all three of its games, something already deemed improbable.
Bypassing the Boilermakers
Scenario two of Northwestern qualifying for the conference tournament involves jumping Purdue. The Boilermakers are 12-13 overall and 4-10 in Big Ten play, featuring wins over Wisconsin and Washington, putting them two games ahead of the desperate Wildcats. However, unlike Indiana, Northwestern has a couple of things going for it in its quest to beat Purdue.
Firstly, Purdue has a tough schedule. The team plays Iowa and Maryland, both top-15 teams in the country, as well as Oregon, a team fighting for its NCAA tournament berth, before traveling to Evanston to play the ‘Cats. ESPN Matchup Predictor gives the Boilermakers less than a 15% chance of winning each of its next three games.
Thus, the odds say that Purdue will board its bus to Northwestern with a 4-13 conference record. If Northwestern can win one of its games against Illinois or Maryland, it will enter the March 1st showdown with Purdue sporting a 3-14 conference record. As discussed earlier, head-to-head victories prevail in the case of a tie in the BIG standings, so in this scenario, if Purdue loses its next three games and Northwestern wins one of its next two, Welsh-Ryan Arena would host a play-in game for the Big Ten Tournament. The winner would finish 15th in the conference standings and head to Indianapolis with postseason hopes still on its mind.
Once again, the formula: Purdue loses its next three games to Iowa, Maryland and Oregon plus Northwestern wins one of its next two games against Illinois or Maryland (let’s assume Illinois as it seems to be the much more winnable game). This would give the ‘Cats a chance to beat the Boilermakers in Evanston to advance to the conference tournament. For NU, the toughest hurdle is Illinois. But if the Wildcats can knock off the Fighting Illini, a team they lost to by just three earlier this season, the rest of the scenario feels much more attainable.
Overall, though bleak, Northwestern still has dreams of qualifying for the Big Ten postseason. If making a pie chart, the ‘Cats miss the tournament 90% of the time, hop the Hoosiers 1% of the time, and bypass the Boilermakers 9% of the time. Yet, throughout Coach McKeown’s storied career, all he’s needed was a chance.