Virginia won the 2019 national title. Since then, it lost in the first round in 21, again in the first round in 2023, and got knocked out in the 2024 First Four.
Things appear to have changed in the first season under Ryan Odom.
The Cavaliers have a devastating offense to go along with a great defense, went 13-2 over the last 15 games with the only losses coming to Duke, and they’re built for a big run.
This is Wright State’s fifth appearance in the NCAA Tournament, and it’s still looking for its first win. It won its last five games of the season to win the Horizon and get its shot to be the next team to knock Virginia out of the first round.
(Maybe.)
This really is a different Cavalier team, and now it has to prove it.
Virginia vs Wright State Game Preview: How Long Will the Raiders Hang Around?
Virginia vs Wright State How To Watch
Date: Friday, March 20
Venue: Xfinity Mobile Arena, Philadelphia, PA
Time: 1:50 pm ET
TV: TBS
Streaming: March Madness Live App, Paramount+, HBO Max
Teams: (3) Virginia 29-5, (14) Wright State 23-11
Virginia Rankings: KenPom 13 | NET 12
Wright State Rankings: KenPom 140 | NET 127
College Football Programs: Virginia was painfully close to winning the ACC Championship last year, but this year’s team will take a step back.
The Cavaliers will have more fun than Wright State – the Raiders don’t have a football program.
– CFN NCAA Tournament Schedule, Previews
Key Stats
– The Cavaliers are tremendous on the inside. They lead the nation in blocks, averaging 6.5 per game, and led the ACC in offensive rebounds.
– Wright State hits shots. It led the Horizon and was 30th in the nation, making 49% from the field.
Why Wright State Will Win: There Won’t Be Many Missed Shots
The Raiders have to work the ball around to avoid that aggressive defense that blocks shots. They don’t do much of anything from three, but they can attack the rim and make the midrange jumpers.
Wright State can block shots, too. The defense is terrific in key late situations, and while it doesn’t come up with a ton of fast break points, it’s great at turning takeaways into points.
It’s 12-1 when holding teams to 70 points or fewer – keeping the pace measured is a must. There’s just one big problem with that.
Why Virginia Will Win: The Cavaliers Will Score
Virginia only scored fewer than 70 points three times. Once was against Duke, and the other two times were in defensive masterpiece wins over Pitt and Florida State.
For anyone who remembers the great recent Virginia teams under former head coach Tony Bennett, it was about defense first, second, and third, and maybe throw in just enough points to win games.
This team doesn’t go 90 miles per hour, but it can score inside or out – triggered by the tough defense.
Wright State’s defense might do a lot of things right, but it’s not great at keeping teams from scoring on the inside. Virginia should be able to hit over 50% from the field.
Virginia vs Wright State Prediction, Betting Lines
Wright State has to keep this close as long as possible, and that’s only happening by fearlessly pushing the ball inside and taking it to the Cavaliers.
And it can’t be afraid to shoot the three.
They make them when they take them, but they don’t shoot enough from the outside. But if this is tight late, will Virginia, with all its recent NCAA Tournament failures, start to buckle?
Not this time. The Cavaliers will overcome a tough early start and clamp down with their defense after giving up a few big threes. The final score will be worse than the game.
Prediction: Virginia 82, Wright State 64
Consensus Line: Virginia -17.5, o/u: 145.5
ATS Confidence out of 5: 3
Meet the NCAA Tournament Seeds
No. 1 | No. 2 | No. 3 | No. 4 | No. 5 | No. 6
No. 7 | No. 8 | No. 9 | No. 10 | No. 11
No. 12 | No. 13 | No. 14 | No. 15 | No. 16
Consensus Line from BetMGM, Caesars, DraftKings, and FanDuel. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Related: Tennessee vs Miami University Prediction and Preview: NCAA Tournament First Round
This story was originally published by College Football News on Mar 19, 2026, where it first appeared in the College Basketball section. Add College Football News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.