UCLA or UCF? How to pick 7 vs. 10 matchup in 2026 March Madness bracket originally appeared on The Sporting News.
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The No. 7 vs. No. 10 matchup in the NCAA tournament has traditionally proved to be quite volatile. This year’s set of contests could take on a similar disposition.
The East Region is chock full of blue bloods, with Duke, UConn, Michigan State and Kansas all set to dance beneath the spotlight. There might not be a program more historically significant to the sport than UCLA, who have 11 titles in its collection.
The Bruins have enjoyed better seasons than they did in 2025-26, tumbling to the middle of a talent-laden Big Ten. They’ll look to turn things around in the tournament, starting with a joust with Big 12 upstarts UCF.
Which side has the advantage in the East’s No. 7 vs. No. 10 matchup? The Sporting News fills you in.
MARCH MADNESS HQ: Live NCAA bracket | Full TV schedule | Printable bracket
UCLA vs. UCF odds
UCLA opened as a 6.5-point favorite over UCF at DraftKings Sportsbook. The point total for the contest was initially set at 154.5.
Below are the details of the game, including betting odds, time and TV.
- Odds: UCLA -6.5
- Date: Friday, March 20
- Time: 7:25 p.m. ET
- TV: TBS
- Streaming: DIRECTV
- Arena: Xfinity Mobile Arena in Philadelphia, Penn.
UCLA (23-11, 13-7 in Big Ten)
UCLA was viewed as a potential top-10 team in the country entering the season, but the Bruins found themselves squarely on the bubble midway through conference play. They shaped up over the final few weeks of the season and made the NCAA Tournament comfortably, buoyed by some massive home wins.
Mick Cronin’s team was able to protect its home floor. Can it play like that in the Big Dance, though? The Bruins don’t have terrific depth outside of their top six, but with the group healthy, it’s a core that is more talented than their seed indicates. Transfer PG Donovan Dent has been playing some of his best basketball of late, racking up 53 assists to just two turnovers over UCLA’s final five regular season games, while Tyler Bilodeau and Skyy Clark help make up for Dent’s shortcomings as a shooter by shooting better than 45 percent from deep.
Biliodeau, essential to the Bruins’ offense, suffered a knee injury in the Big Ten Tournament but is expected to play in the NCAA Tournament. His status is still worth monitoring closely.
UCLA finished as a middle-of-the-road team in the Big Ten in terms of points per game, but much of that has to do with a slow pace under Cronin. The Bruins are content to slow the game down and out-shoot teams, but that has consequences when the 3s aren’t falling.
Defensively, UCLA is holding teams to under 32 percent from 3-point range. Opponents have had more success closer to the rim, where the Bruins aren’t as steady. UCLA doesn’t totally lack size with 6-11 Xavier Booker, 6-9 Bilodeau and 6-8 Eric Dailey Jr. in the rotation, but only Booker is much of a shot-blocker from that trio; Bilodeau’s value comes on the offensive end.
UCLA’s home and road splits make the NCAA Tournament a bit tough to predict. The Bruins have the talent to play like a 4- or 5-seed and have played much better of late, but they won’t get to call Pauley Pavilion home in March. -Dan Treacy
- NET ranking: 31st
- KenPom ranking: 27th
- Quad 1 record: 5-8
- Quad 2 record: 5-3
- Quad 3 record: 6-0
- Quad 4 record: 7-0
- Offensive efficiency ranking: 22nd
- Defensive efficiency ranking: 54th
Key players
Tyler Bilodeau, F, Sr. (6-9, 220): 17.6 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 46.4% 3-pt
Donovan Dent, G, Sr. (6-2, 170): 13.5 ppg, 7.6 apg, 1.6 spg
Skyy Clark, G, Sr. (6-3, 200): 11.7 ppg, 2.1 apg, 43.2% 3-pt
Trent Perry, G, So. (6-4, 180): 12.7 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 2.9 apg
Eric Dailey Jr., F, So. (6-8, 230): 11.3 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 1.3 apg
SN AWARDS: All-America team | Player of the Year | Coach of the Year
UCF (21-11, 9-9 in Big 12)
Johnny Dawkins effectively lost his entire core after last season, between the transfer portal and graduations. UCF was expected to be closer to the bottom of the Big 12 than to the NCAA Tournament, and Dawkins was likely to be on the hot seat. Not so fast.
Seven years after the Knights’ tournament run ended with a devastating near-upset against Duke, they are back in the big dance and hoping their grit sparks a run.
UCF struggled down the stretch, losing six of its last nine in the Big 12. Five of those losses came against non-tournament teams. That should be a real cause for concern ahead of the Knights’ biggest test of the season. While they got wins against BYU and a healthy Texas Tech team, defensive lapses against average teams aren’t an indication of big things to come.
When the shots are falling, UCF is tough to beat. The Knights absolutely buried BYU on the road in February because Riley Kugel, Jordan Burks and Carmelo Pacheco are all dangerous shooters. UCF is also a strong free throw-shooting team and plays fast. Against a soft defense, this group can put up impressive numbers. UCF has some size between John Bol, Jordan Burks and Jamichael Stillwell, who help make this team a solid offensive rebounding group.
UCF is volatile because the shots simply need to fall. The Knights can’t rely on their defense, ranking bottom-four in the Big 12 in both blocks and steals while opponents shoot nearly 46 percent from the field, better than only Utah and Colorado in the Big 12. UCF could easily be a team that grabs America’s attention with a barrage of 3s in the opening round, but a shaky day from beyond the arc spells major trouble. -Dan Treacy
- NET ranking: 52nd
- KenPom ranking: 54th
- Quad 1 record: 5-8
- Quad 2 record: 6-3
- Quad 3 record: 4-0
- Quad 4 record: 6-0
- Offensive efficiency ranking: 40th
- Defensive efficiency ranking: 101st
Key players
Riley Kugel, G, Sr. (6-5, 207): 14.4 ppg, 2.5 apg, 39.2% 3-pt
Themus Fulks, G, Sr. (6-1, 185): 14.1 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 6.7 apg
Jordan Burks, F, Jr. (6-9, 202): 13.0 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 1.1 spg
Jamichael Stillwell, F, Sr. (6-8, 225): 11.7 ppg, 8.0 rpg, 2.2 apg
John Bol, F, So. (7-2, 210): 6.0 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 1.1 bpg
SN EXPERT BRACKETS:DeCourcy (Arizona) | Bender (Michigan) | Iyer (Arizona) | Gay (UCLA women)
UCLA vs. UCF prediction
The Bruins are one of the tournament’s more polarizing sides. Biliodeau and Clark spearhead an offense that is efficient and effective, but it can play at a turgid pace at times. They’re not the easiest side on the eyes, particularly when the shots aren’t falling. But Cronin’s squad is teeming with potential on both ends of the floor.
The Golden Knights could have the personnel to exploit UCLA’s weaknesses. John Bol, Jordan Burks and Jamichael Stillwell are gifted paint operators, carving opposition defenses one layup at a time. That could prove daunting for a Bruins defense that can surrender points in bunches inside the three-point line.
Still, UCF”s offensive volatility is difficult to ignore. Dawkins’ side is at its best when its able to launch uncontested triples at will. UCLA, for all of its faults, is well-equipped to blight that dynamism. The Bruins won’t be awash in Pauley Pavilion’s friendly lights. But their success in a loaded Big Ten should give them enough to get past the Golden Knights come Friday.
HISTORY OF UPSETS BY SEED: 16 vs. 1 | 15 vs. 2 | 14 vs. 3 | 13 vs. 4 | 12 vs. 5
History of 7 vs. 10 upsets in NCAA Tournament
Overall, No. 7 seeds hold a 96-64 advantage over No. 10 seeds since the NCAA Tournament bracket expanded to 64 teams in 1985. Those figures would suggest that the Bruins are the smart choice to advance — the No. 7 seed has a 60 percent win rate in first-matchups since the mid-1980s.
Still, shockers do happen. Two No. 10s — Arkansas and New Mexico — cut down their higher-ranked opponents in 2025. Those wins proved momentous for another reason, too; they extended the streak of No. 10 seeds advancing to the second round of the tournament to 16 years in a row.
Below is a breakdown of the wins 10-seeds have enjoyed over 7-seeds since 2009:
| Year | Result |
| 2025 | Arkansas 79, Kansas 72 |
| 2025 | New Mexico 75, Marquette 66 |
| 2024 | Colorado 102, Florida 100 |
| 2023 | Penn State 76, Texas A&M 59 |
| 2022 | Miami (FL) 68, USC 66 |
| 2021 | Maryland 63, UConn 54 |
| 2021 | Rutgers 60, Clemson 56 |
| 2019 | Florida 70, Nevada 61 |
| 2019 | Iowa 79, Cincinnati 72 |
| 2019 | Minnesota 86, Louisville 76 |
| 2018 | Butler 79, Arkansas 62 |
| 2017 | Wichita State 64, Dayton 58 |
| 2016 | VCU 75, Oregon State 67 |
| 2016 | Syracuse 70, Dayton 51 |
| 2015 | Ohio State 75, VCU 72 |
| 2014 | Stanford 58, New Mexico 53 |
| 2013 | Iowa State 76, Notre Dame 58 |
| 2012 | Xavier 67, Notre Dame 63 |
| 2012 | Purdue 72, Saint Mary’s 69 |
| 2011 | Florida State 57, Texas A&M 50 |
| 2010 | Georgia Tech 64, Oklahoma State 59 |
| 2010 | Missouri 86, Clemson 78 |
| 2010 | Saint Mary’s 80, Richmond 71 |
| 2009 | USC 72, Boston College 55 |
| 2009 | Maryland 84, Cal 71 |
| 2009 | Michigan 62, Clemson 59 |
Dan Treacy contributed to this article.