Iowa State will open NCAA tournament play against the Syracuse Orange at 4:30 p.m. on ESPN2. This will represent the 24th appearance in the tournament for the Cyclones, including each of the last seven and 17 of the last 19. This will also mark the 14th appearance for Syracuse. The Orange have only reached the second weekend once, but were able to stretch their 2016 run to the national championship game where they ultimately lost to UConn.
Even with Crooks, the Cyclones live and die by the three
Unfortunately, Iowa State experienced the dark side of high volume three point shooting during the Big 12 tournament against Arizona State. Audi Crooks had just four points in the first half, all by free throws. That was due to Arizona State negating any potential entry passes to the second team All-American and forcing Iowa State to attempt a sky high 36 three pointers. This is a very risky gamble for the defensive team as Iowa State currently ranks 12th in the country in three-point percentage. Unfortunately, 7-36 from the field was too rough of a performance for the Cyclones to overcome as they fell to the Sun Devils 77-68.
It was a tough game to watch, but I don’t think there was anything inherently wrong with how Iowa State was preparing themselves. Many of those attempts were open, and if they shot their normal percentage of 36%, they suddenly shot 13-36 and they won by nine. The officials called 51 total fouls which seemed to kill any flow in the game which I believe Iowa State needs to be comfortable. With those two factors, I don’t believe there needs to be serious changes in X’s and O’s. It was just a bad shooting day, and they just need to move forward.
The offensive philosophies are twins
The focal point of both offenses are their 6’ 3” centers, with Syracuse boasting freshman star Uche Izoje. She has led the team with 15.5 points and 9.4 rebounds per contest on 55.6% shooting. The Orange also start two additional players averaging over ten points per game with guards Laila Phelia and Sophie Burrows. One major hit for Syracuse is the loss of Dominique Darius. The senior point guard led the team with 3.5 assists per game and also contributed 12.6 points per game. She had been one of the breakout contributors for the Orange after spending three seasons at UCLA and one season at USC.
Defensively, Syracuse applies constant pressure and looks to constantly force turnovers. Their 19 turnovers forced per game finished second in the ACC and 59th nationally. If their defense fails to force a turnover, their opponents shoot 40% from the field. Iowa State ranks tenth nationally with 47.88% shooting from the field, so ball security should be a main priority for the offense.
It’s win or go home, and while Iowa State is currently opening as a 7.5 point favorite, that does lead to a realistic path for Syracuse to improve to 3-0 all time in the series. How does Iowa State avenge their 2017 tournament defeat that also happened to be in Storrs?
- Protect the ball. Iowa State is normally a very efficient team that can shoot from anywhere. If they can get good looks consistently, it will be very difficult for Syracuse to keep pace. The one thing that completely negates this is turnovers.
- Win the one-on-one defensive matchups. Syracuse only averages 14.65 assists per game, which is perfectly average. They do run more one on one battles, so everyone will need to step up
- Establish a strong threat outside of the lane. Audi Crooks will naturally be option number one, but she does need space to receive the ball and get to work. If Syracuse has to stretch their defense across to the full perimeter, that only gives Audi more time to work her magic.
Prediction: ISU 75 – SYR 68