You can now fit the number of games remaining on one hand.
Buckle up.
After two full weeks away from their home crowd, the Cyclones return to Hilton to take on the Kansas State Wildcats. Airing on ESPN, this is the sixth appearance on network television for Bill Fennelly’s squad, with two remaining afterwards. This matchup also represents Iowa State’s Play4Kay game, as fans are encouraged to wear pink as programs across the NCAA unite in the fight against breast cancer.
The Cyclones are returning to Hilton following a trip to the state of Utah where they split their pair of games, winning against the Utes and falling to BYU. With both games being classified at Q2, their tournament hopes remain steady, consistently being placed in the 7-9 seed range. This upcoming home game against Kansas State is currently classified as a Q3 as the Wildcats are currently ranked 59th in the NET rankings.
Audi is still the star we know
Audi Crooks has maintained her role as the headlining act, and the focal point of opposing defenses. She has led the team in points in three of the last four games, and while she is no longer on pace for the ridiculous achievement of more points than minutes, she has continually demonstrated why every defense collapses onto her once she receives the ball. She is currently second in the nation in points per game with 25.5, and is currently shooting a monstrous 70% from the field.
While much of the recent success has required Audi to maintain a very active presence on the offensive side, the consistency of the guard play has been equally important for one of the best offenses in the conference. The return of Arriana Jackson paired with an increased presence from Sydney Harris and Jada Williams from deep has opened up space for Audi to go to work.
Claps for Kenzie Hare
Even though the team ended with a loss, one bright spot was the revival of Kenzie Hare. She had struggled throughout much of conference play, but exploded for a 5-of-9 performance from beyond the arc and a season high 15 points. While I personally chalk much of the result to a third quarter where everything went BYU’s way, the one thing I would like to keep from that game is Kenzie’s presence from deep.
I am also a firm believer that the offense works at its best when there are at least two hot hands from beyond the arc. Obviously that will lead to more threes and therefore a more explosive option, but that also makes it harder for defenders to leave their assignments and double Audi. I also believe that Iowa State has to shoot at a higher percentage than most other teams, because one key weakness can be their transition defense. If the offense is able to hit their shots, it is a lot harder for opponents to come down the court with speed. If Kenzie can replicate her performance down the stretch, then she can rejoin the plethora of options Iowa State boasts from deep and ultimately overwhelm opponents.
The Wildcats have been… weird
I cannot get a good reading on this Kansas State squad. They are 3-3 on the road and 4-3 at home during conference play, so it doesn’t appear that location has a large factor. They have some very good wins in Big 12 play, namely on the road at Texas Tech and most recently at home over Oklahoma State. This is paired with some very bad losses, namely at Arizona (currently 2-12 in league play), a 22-point blowout against Kansas, and a brutal non-conference record that will likely be the reason they miss the tournament. Which Kansas State team shows up? Nobody knows, which is mildly terrifying.
Kansas State is led primarily by their guards, which may explain their high variance. Their leading scorers are Taryn Sides, Nastja Claessens, and Tess Heal, all averaging over 10 points per game. One odd thing that I just found interesting is that while Brandie Harrod leads the team with 5.3 rebounds per game, the Wildcats have six players averaging 3.7 or more rebounds. For reference, Audi averages 7.5, and then Jada Williams is second on the active roster with 3.6.
The Wildcats are currently close to even in point differential during conference play, which largely reflects their 7-6 record. One thing to bring to attention is that Kansas State forces the fourth most amount of turnovers in the conference, and the second most amount of steals. Iowa State has shown to get into trouble when pressed, so keeping the turnovers down will greatly help the Cyclones maintain control.
So after all of this, what are the main keys to the game for Bill Fenally’s squad? Here are my thoughts.
- Smart play from Audi. Kansas State is not known for their size. Their two centers that may be able to match some of Audi’s physicality only combine for 20 minutes per game 5.1 points per game, so Kansas State will have to rely on doubling her when she has the ball or moving to a zone defense. While I believe that she will be able to win a lot of matchups one on one, she needs to be keenly aware of when to keep it herself and when to kick it back out once extra defensive help inevitably arrives.
- Score at least 74 points. That may seem odd, but it appears that there is a threshold that decides the game. Iowa State has scored at least 74 points in all but one of their wins, and has scored less than that mark in all of their losses. I believe this is because their biggest defensive weakness is the fast break, but it is much harder for opponents to move with pace if Iowa State is consistently hitting their shots.
- No turnovers before half court. Kansas State’s high steal rate does concern me, as Iowa State has shown to fall out of rhythm offensively if they have trouble getting past the press. With a small lineup, a press may be the strategy for the Wildcats to throw the Cyclones into a funk.
Tipoff is scheduled for 1 p.m. at Hilton, and you can also watch live on ESPN. ESPN currently favors Iowa State 83% to 17%
Prediction: ISU 78 – KSU 68