The Michigan men’s basketball team had a clear offensive identity under Dusty May. Like the Houston Rockets nearly a decade ago when James Harden won the MVP, the Wolverines shot mostly threes and lay-ups, emphasizing getting to the paint and kicking the ball out if you couldn’t get a good look near the basket.
That identity could change in Mike Boynton Jr.’s first year at the helm, especially if Trey McKenney makes the sophomore leap we’ve seen premiere Michigan guards make before. The Wolverines could become your dad’s favorite basketball team with how often they could shoot mid-range jumpers.
As CBB Analytics pointed out in the above post, including free throws, McKenney averaged the most points per midrange shot attempt (1.30 points per shot). After scoring 39 points on 30 attempts, McKenney was the most efficient midrange shooter in college basketball last season.
Most of May’s staff from last season is still in Ann Arbor, and after the success of the last two seasons, I don’t expect a complete shift in offensive identity. But with Michigan’s current personnel, more mid-range shots may be on the menu, which would mean a potential shift away from Michigan’s analytically-driven offensive philosophy.
If we’re expecting McKenney to have the ball more in his hands this season, more midrange shots feels like a reasonable expectation. And while the midrange bucket is seen as a dying art in modern basketball, if you can knock down those shots at an efficient clip, you can get tough buckets late in close games.
Another reason for Michigan’s lack of midrange looks the past two seasons has been its sheer size. With 7-footers Danny Wolf and Vlad Goldin often playing at the same time, spacing was harder to come by, making midrange looks few and far between. And last season, the Wolverines thrived around the rim with Yaxel Lendeborg, Aday Mara and Morez Johnson Jr. so often that Michigan didn’t need midrange looks, aside from the 30 from McKenney and the occasional push shot from Johnson.
Michigan does have the personnel to play two bigs most of the time again, but they certainly don’t have to.
Tennessee transfer J.P. Estrella showed he can be a reliable rim presence during the Europe trip, and Michigan could survive with him being the only big on the floor for long stretches. When he’s not around the rim, Cincinnati transfer Mousthapha Thiam could stretch the floor a little to make room for midrange looks. Thiam attempted 1.7 threes per game for the Bearcats last season; he’ll have to make more than the 28.8 percent he made last season, but an improved three-point stroke adds another layer to Michigan’s offense.
Speaking of three-point shooting, you need reliable three-point shooters to be able to score efficiently from midrange; like defenses stacking the box against a quarterback with a weak arm, college basketball defenses can pack the paint and take away mid-range looks if you can’t knock down threes. That’s a big reason why Virginia won the National Championship in 2018-19.
In a minuscule three-game sample, Michigan shot 33 percent from three (35-of-105) during the trip. The Wolverines will need to shoot better than that for many reasons, especially if they want to create those midrange opportunities.
Elliot Cadeau, Quinn Costello (shot 45.8 percent from three on the trip) and McKenney could all be good three-point shooters. If Michigan gets reliable three-point production from Oscar Goodman, Joseph Hartman and the possible additions of Kenny Noland and Roddy Gayle Jr., that would force defenses to close out harder, creating space for midrange looks.
I’m not expecting Boynton to re-invent the wheel when it comes to Michigan’s offensive gameplan, especially coming off a national championship. But I would be interested to see what an offense built around McKenney and his three-level scoring could look like, and I’m sure the Michigan staff is more curious than I am.