March Madness starts Thursday, bringing all the chaos, upsets, and betting opportunities that make this tournament great. This breakdown focuses on the South Region, where several first-round matchups offer real value if you dig a little deeper.
This card features five bets worth targeting. One backs a former Cinderella ready for another run, while another fades a short-handed team struggling to score. There’s also a play on a squad that controls tempo and disrupts fast-paced opponents, plus two teams that defend the perimeter at a high level—key in March.
All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change. DraftKings does not sponsor this content.
VCU Rams Moneyline (+120)
The Rams enter on a six-game winning streak and bring depth, defense and strong guard play into this matchup. North Carolina is without star freshman Caleb Wilson, leaving an already thin rotation exposed. VCU’s ability to force turnovers and knock down threes creates a tough matchup for a Tar Heels defense that struggles on the perimeter, making this a prime upset spot.
North Carolina Under 78.5 Team Total Points (-120)
North Carolina’s offense has cooled off, topping 80 points just once in its last 10 games, and now must adjust without Caleb Wilson. VCU’s defense is built to take advantage, allowing just 71.5 points per game and holding nine of its last 10 opponents under 75. The Rams also defend the perimeter well and force turnovers, making points hard to come by.
Saint Mary's Gaels -3.5 (-102)
The Gaels’ slow, efficient style can frustrate Texas A&M’s up-tempo “Bucky Ball” approach and help control the pace. Saint Mary’s shoots 46.1% from the field and 39% from three, creating steady offense, while the Aggies struggle defensively and foul frequently. As teams have adjusted to Bucky Ball late in the season, those issues have become more obvious — giving Saint Mary’s a strong edge to cover the spread.
Texas A&M vs. Saint Mary's Under 147.5 (-115)
The Gaels play at one of the slowest tempos in the country, limiting possessions and allowing just 64.6 points per game. Their size and disciplined half-court defense can disrupt Texas A&M’s up-tempo attack, forcing tougher, lower-percentage shots. If Saint Mary’s controls the pace, this matchup is more likely to be a grind than a shootout, making the under a strong look.
Penn vs. Illinois Under 150.5 (-115)
Penn’s defensive profile and strong turnover control have helped drive low-scoring games, with the under hitting in nine of its last 10. Illinois relies heavily on three-point shooting, taking more than half its shots from deep, but inconsistency there can stall the offense. The Illini also don’t force many turnovers, limiting easy points. This matchup sets up for a slower, lower-scoring game.
This story was originally published by Athlon Sports on Mar 18, 2026, where it first appeared in the Sports Betting section. Add Athlon Sports as a Preferred Source by clicking here.