Northwestern suffered one of its worst losses of the Chris Collins era on Wednesday, falling 84-44 to No. 5 Illinois. Nothing went right for NU Wednesday night, while a title-hopeful Illinois unit played its best game of the season.
Here are three takeaways from a brutal Northwestern loss in Champaign:
This team lacks the talent and versatility to compete with the Big Ten’s juggernauts
Collins is known for being able to develop talent, but blowouts like these make it clear that he hasn’t necessarily been able to bring in the best talent in recent years.
This season, Illini head coach Brad Underwood not only identified undervalued talent like Keaton Wagler, a three-star recruit for much of his high school career who has emerged as Illinois’ leading scorer and one of the nation’s top true freshmen, but also assembled a unit defined by cohesive versatility. Andrej Stojakovic was a premier four-star talent in the transfer portal last spring, but he has also proven to be the perfect fit for an Illini team where his added offensive versatility as a lengthy paint scorer is crucial to the team’s stability.
Unfortunately, the same can’t be said about Collins this offseason. The ‘Cats’ two major freshmen talents, Jake West and Tre Singleton, have played quality minutes this season, but haven’t had nearly the same trajectory as players like Wagler and David Mirkovic. Meanwhile, Arrinten Page and Jayden Reid, two of Northwestern’s splashiest transfer portal signings, haven’t been able to fit in with Northwestern’s play style, seeing gradually less time on the floor in recent weeks.
As a result, Illinois has so many different players that can be leading playmakers on any given night. Entering tonight’s game, six different players had led the Illini in scoring in a game this season. The ‘Cats entered the game with just three players who have done so, lacking the talent and offensive versatility to be competitive when Nick Martinelli has an off night.
Last night, Martinelli scored just four points, and the ‘Cats did not have the talent to compete.
This Northwestern team can’t rebound
Illinois out rebounded Northwestern 50-23. Yes, you read that right — the Illini had more rebounds (50) than the ‘Cats had points (44).
Granted, the rebounding gap is exacerbated because Northwestern missed 16 more field goals than Illinois, giving the Illini significantly more opportunities on the defensive glass. Even so, the ‘Cats still got killed on the glass, as they have all season long.
Northwestern was outsized on Wednesday night, as the team was against Washington on Saturday, and have been in many Big Ten games this season. The Illini’s starting lineup sported an average height of six-foot-eight, matching up a full three inches taller than the ‘Cats’ small ball West-Reid-Martinelli-Singleton-Kropp rotation. While being undersized, the ‘Cats were late to almost every loose ball, lacking the hustle and physicality needed to rebound head-to-toe with their opponent while significantly under-sized.
Frustratingly, Northwestern’s rebounding woes have been a constant grievance of the Chris Collins era. Since the 2013-14 season, the ‘Cats have finished in the bottom two in rebounds per game in the Big Ten five times more than they’ve finished in the top half of the conference. This season has been no better, with Northwestern currently sitting 16th in the Big Ten in rebounding differential (-1.9) after getting out rebounded in eight of its last ten games.
In the upcoming offseason, more than ever, Collins needs to find true size and physicality in the transfer portal. Otherwise, the ’Cats will have to continue to find ways to win with fewer possessions than their opponent: a tough, uphill fight.
‘Cats fans look away: Illinois might win it all
Right now, Illinois is playing its best basketball of the season, and the belief in Champaign is tangible. The 15,000 packed into State Farm Center Wednesday have real title expectations for this 20-3 Illini team who has gone 12-0 since mid-December.
After Illinois’ 40-point drubbing of the ‘Cats, a takeaway from this game has to be that this Illini team deserves those title expectations.
For a while now, the eye-test has backed the legitimacy of Illinois. It’s long been known that when this team gets hot, with six shooters who sink more than 33.0% of their shots from deep and can light the floor on fire — as they did last night against the ‘Cats. Yet, even when the Illini have an off shooting night, they have Stojakovic and Kylan Boswell (who has been injured for a few weeks), two of the game’s best paint scorers, as a safety net. With Stojakovic, Boswell and all its three-point shooters, it doesn’t take long watching Illinois to see that it’s the most versatile offense in the nation.
However, it took a while for the analytics to back Illinois. The Illini had an up-and-down start to this season, with big wins over No. 11 Texas Tech and No. 13 Tennessee, but three tough losses against No. 11 Alabama, No. 5 UConn and No. 23 Nebraska. On December 15, Illinois was 8-3 with a 51st ranked defense that clearly wasn’t good enough analytically to compete with the nation’s best.
After working in the offseason to adjust its defensive philosophy, Underwood’s unit finally figured things out in mid-December. Since December 22nd, the Illini have been Torvik’s No. 1 team, holding 11-of-12 opponents to fewer than 7o points with a new and improved 11th-ranked defense. Underwood’s squad is now No. 6 per Torvik and No. 5 per KenPom on the season, with the nation’s best offense and a top 20 championship defense.
Against the ‘Cats, Illinois punctuated its effort over the past month to become great on both sides of the ball. The Illini can still pour in 17 threes on 45% perimeter shooting, but they are also now capable of completely suffocating teams defensively, holding the ‘Cats to a stunning 26% field goal percentage and dominating the glass (as described above).
Will anybody beat this Brad Underwood team in March? As hard as it is for Northwestern fans to accept, there’s no denying that it’s a special team lacing ‘em up in orange this season.