Winning a national championship takes more than just being good. It takes a little bit of luck. You have to avoid injuries to major players. You have to hope some other obstacle isn't thrown in your way.
The University of Arizona men's basketball team appears to be poised for an extended NCAA Tournament run. The Wildcats (32-2) clinched the Big 12 regular-season championship even before the last day of games had been played.
They proved it was no fluke by winning the Big 12 tournament and boasting wins over top 10 teams in Houston and Iowa State in the process. That sends Tommy Lloyd's squad into March Madness on quite a roll. They start the ride with a 10:30 a.m. showdown against Northeastern Conference champion Long Island (23-10) on March 20.
Arizona has a history of doing well in the regular season, only to fall short once the calendar flips to March and it's tournament time. But this year's team appears to be suited for an extended run, toughened up by the gauntlet that is the Big 12 regular season.
Several national media experts weighed in on Lloyd's squad. The consensus? This team is for real.
ESPN's Jay Bilas picked the Wildcats to win it all. So did Seth Davis and Bruce Pearl, who did so on the CBS telecast of the unveiling of the bracket. Clark Kellogg was the exception. He picked Purdue to beat off Arizona in the West Region, perhaps harkening back to past disappointments.
ESPN analyst Fran Fraschilla, who was at the Big 12 tournament, likes Lloyd's squad but acknowledges the postseason is different.
"This Arizona team is as good as any team in America right now, and they are absolutely capable of winning it all, but so are five or six other teams," he said. "When you get to a one-and-done situation, you have to win six games in the NCAA Tournament. It's all hit or miss. Can this team do it? Absolutely. Is there going to be disappointment if they don't get to a Final Four? Without a doubt. At the same time, if you're an Arizona fan, you have to enjoy the journey this team has been on all year. Enjoy it, and if they get to Indianapolis, celebrate, and if they don't get there, commiserate, but also understand it's been a great season."
Roxy Bernstein grew up a Pac-12 fan, graduating from Cal and covering the conference for the Pac-12 Network as well as ESPN. He has called some Arizona games this season and notes a major difference between this year's Wildcats squad and other versions.
"They have a physical toughness and a mental toughness that some teams in the past haven't had," he said. "They've always had talent. No doubt about that. But the toughness they have shown is going to serve them well."
Arizona has a punishing presence inside that few other teams can match. Fraschilla calls 7-foot-2 junior center Motiejus Krivas "the most improved player in the country." Senior Tobe Awaka is averaging a double-double off the bench. Even the Arizona guards have good size.
Because the Wildcats have size and can benefit from the high percentage shots in the paint, they don't shoot much from the perimeter. They rank 354th out of 316 Division I teams in 3-point attempts at just 16.3 attempts per game. Their 5.9 made per game ranks 332nd.
Numbers say it's not that they can't; they don't have to. Their percentage of 36.04% ranks 63rd.
That is Bernstein's only question mark when it comes to Arizona.
"They shoot it good, not great," he said. "That is my only question with this team. Can they knock down those shots if they get in a shootout and the other team is making them at a high rate?"
Fraschilla disagrees. He doesn't see that as a factor at all.
"They're like a college football team with an incredible running game and a great offensive line," he said. "Tommy's philosophy is we're going to try and bludgeon you inside and just wear you down, and we also have enough outside shooting that we can get hot and hit nine or 10 3's in a given game. There are a lot of teams that rely on shooting the three and end up going 4-for-23. Tommy's team is going to feast on this inside game since they're so big and physical. The other thing is, the beautiful thing is, they're going to get to the foul line."
Numbers bear that out, too. Arizona ranks 10th in the nation in free-throw attempts per game and is 13th in free-throw makes per game.
ESPN's Sean Farnham singles out those things, too, but sees a selflessness that is difficult to find nowadays in college basketball. Awaka and Anthony Dell'Orso were starters in 2024-25, but both were supplanted in the starting lineup by highly touted freshman Brayden Burries and Koa Peat. They have embraced those roles.
Awaka was named the Sixth Man of the Year in the Big 12. Dell'Orso scored 26 points coming off the bench in the 82-80 win over Iowa State in the Big 12 semifinal.
"The most impressive thing Tommy has done is the transformation with Awaka and Dell Orso," he said. "This day and age, when you have players that start over 30 games and can impact the level of winning as those two players do, and they gladly step aside and now come off the bench and allow two freshmen to flourish in their roles, that says a lot about the makeup of this team. Couple that with the fact they have one of the best closers in the country (Jaden Bradley), a guy that is a coach on the floor, he's embraced that role and the lineage of players there."
Time will tell if the Wildcats can bring home their first national title since 1997. Fraschilla gets the angst the fan base has this time of year.
"Arizona's rich basketball history also comes with disappointment because of the expectations of the program, no Final Fours in 20-plus years, and no championships since 1997," he said. "Having said that, every single season is different. This team certainly has everything it needs to do something the school hasn't done in a very long time."
This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: Arizona Wildcats built for a title in 2026