Saturday night in Chapel Hill brings another chapter of college basketball’s premier rivalry.
North Carolina (18-4, 6-3 ACC) welcomes league-leading Duke (21-1, 10-0) to a packed Dean Dome, where Carolina blue will dominate but Duke fans will still make their presence felt. The Blue Devils won all three meetings with the Tar Heels last season, so North Carolina enters this one with plenty of motivation to make sure that doesn’t happen again.
The Tar Heels, once wobbly after a rough West Coast trip, have responded with four straight wins: Notre Dame,Virginia, Georgia Tech and Syracuse.
Duke enters looking every bit like a title threat. The Blue Devils are led by Cameron Boozer, who powers the Blue Devils with 23.3 points, 9.9 rebounds, 4.0 assists and 1.9 steals per game, putting him squarely in the national awards conversation. Isaiah Evans has emerged as a steady No. 2 option at 17.0 points per game in ACC play, while Patrick Ngongba adds efficient interior scoring, strong rebounding and top-tier shot-blocking numbers.
With that being said, here are some things to watch.
Caleb Wilson vs. Cameron Boozer
Easily the most high-profile matchup of the evening, most of the attention will be on the two freshmen stars: Duke’s Boozer and North Carolina’s Caleb Wilson.
At 6-foot-9 and 250 pounds, Boozer has been a force for Duke this season. He is the favorite to win the ACC Player of the Year award and is projected to be a top-five pick at power forward. He is averaging 23.3 points, 9.9 rebounds, 4.0 assists and 1.9 steals per game — all team highs — and has helped lead the Blue Devils to a 21-1 overall record and a 10-0 start in ACC play.
Wilson, also a projected top-five pick, has had one of the most electric freshman seasons in ACC history. He is averaging 20.0 points and 9.9 rebounds and broke Tyler Hansbrough’s record for the most 20-point games by a freshman, which had stood for more than 20 years.
Wilson leads the ACC in rebounding, ranks fourth in scoring and seventh in blocks per game (1.3), while averaging 1.5 steals. He is fourth in field-goal percentage (58.1%). In conference play, he is averaging 20.7 points, 8.3 rebounds and 3.6 assists.
Boozer leads the ACC in points and rebounds, is tied for third in steals and ranks 12th in assists, tops among big men. In conference play, he is averaging 23.2 points, 9.8 rebounds, 4.1 assists and 2.2 steals while shooting 60.1% from the field.
Who Steps Up This Time?
One of the more positive trends for North Carolina has been its bench. Over the last four games, the Tar Heels have averaged 30.2 bench points. Stretched across an entire season, that would rank in the top 50 nationally and second in the ACC. That’s a massive jump from the 18.9 bench points they were averaging before this run, a figure that ranked 280th nationally.
Now the question is, who steps up this time?
Jarin Stevenson scored all 17 of his points in the second half of UNC’s win over Virginia. Luka Bogavac had 16 points against Georgia Tech. Against Syracuse earlier this week, Jonathan Powell had 12 points on 4-of-5 shooting (3-of-4 from 3-point range).
Can the UNC overcome free throw shooting woes?
This will be a crucial storyline, as Carolina is shooting just 68.4% from the free-throw line, which ranks 15th out of 18 teams in the ACC and 307th out of 361 Division I programs nationally.
However, there is some good news. The Tar Heels have hit 36 of their last 47 free throws, a 76.6% rate. Sustaining that mark the rest of the way would be ideal, but against Duke, they may need to be even sharper at the line.
Expect North Carolina to get to the stripe often — the Tar Heels lead the ACC in free-throw attempts. Speaking of a lot of free throws …
Who Stays Out of Foul Trouble?
This is also something to watch out for, considering how much Boozer and Wilson get the ball.
North Carolina and Duke are first and second in the ACC when it comes to fouling the least, as the Tar Heels are called for only 14.9 fouls per game while Duke is called for just 16. However, they are also first and second, respectively, in free-throw attempts per game, as the Tar Heels take 24.3 per game and Duke takes 23.9.
Wilson is fourth in the ACC in fouls drawn per 40 minutes, while Boozer is eighth, so both of these players could be in foul trouble early.
Duke center Patrick Ngongba is 15th in fouls drawn per 40 minutes, which doesn’t bode well for Henri Veesaar, who commits 3.5 fouls per 40 minutes, 69th in the ACC.
It may be a cliché, but whoever commits the fewest fouls wins this game, and it may be truer than ever in this one.
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This article originally appeared on Tar Heels Wire: UNC basketball: Key things to watch in Carolina-Duke matchup