In 1984, not long after the NCAA decided to expand its men’s basketball tournament to 64 teams for the upcoming season, Indiana coach Bob Knight suggested that it might be difficult to find 64 “tournament-caliber” teams.
Two years later, his third-seeded Hoosiers – owners of the best record in college basketball at 31-10 – lost to No. 14 Cleveland State, leaving the coach to explain, “I mean, people have to understand that we just got beat by a pretty damned good basketball team.”
The 14th-seeded Vikings weren’t the first official Cinderella. That honor, if we’re being technical, probably lies with Penn. In 1979, the ninth-seeded Quakers (back when the lowest seed a team could be was 10) won a play-in game against Iona and then knocked out Dean Smith and North Carolina in Raleigh of all places. And before Cleveland State, in 1985 Navy and David Robinson became the first 13th seed to dispatch a four when the Midshipmen knocked off LSU.
But Cleveland State was, in fact, a damned good basketball team, as were most of the double-digit seed winners in NCAA Tournament history.
The recipe for an upset is sort of like an Italian grandmother’s meatball mixture (or at least mine): Not entirely measurable but full of a few key ingredients.
Here’s what it takes to make up a March Madness upset:
A transcendent player
His shorts dragging over his knees and his uniform nearly swallowing up his skinny frame, a baby-faced Steph Curry took his first steps on the path to NBA legend in 2008. Over the course of four NCAA Tournament games, he averaged 32 points per game, opening up Davidson’s 10 -seed magic by dropping 40 on Gonzaga.
There are many ways to launch an upset; the easiest is to find a singular player who can take you there – Bo Kimble’s 45 points for 11th-seeded Loyola Marymount in 1990; Ja Morant’s triple-double (17 points, 11 rebounds and 16 assists) for 12th-seed Murray State against Marquette in 2019; or Jairus Lyles’ 29 points on 9-of-11 shooting in University of Maryland, Baltimore County’s (UMBC) historic 16-over-1 upset of Virginia.
A strong regular season
There is nothing more dangerous than a team playing with house money that also feels like it has a head of steam.
Before they became the first team to do the impossible, 16th-seeded UMBC closed out its own season by winning 12 of its last 14 games, stretching all the way through the America East Tournament.
Similarly in 1991, Richmond won 12 of its last 13 en route to the first 15-over-2 upset in NCAA history. Following the Spiders’ 73-69 elimination of Syracuse, the Syracuse Post-Standard headline read: “Arachnophobia.’’
Continuity
Depending on the era, this could mean different things. During the high-school-to-NBA-direct-route era or the one-and-done age, continuity equated to legit older players. Along with Sister Jean, Loyola-Chicago in 2018 had three juniors and three seniors in its six-man rotation. Per Ken Pomeroy, they ranked 59th in Division I experience. Their opening opponent, Miami, was 227th.
In the transfer portal era, continuity means guys who play together for at least a few years. In 2024, four of 12-seeded Colorado State’s players all started their career in Fort Collins. Their first-round opponent, Memphis, was in “hello-my-name-is” land – every single one of the Tigers’ top five players had arrived in Memphis that season.
Post 1987: 3-point shooting
Prior to the 1987 season, Rick Pitino taped the new 3-point line onto his practice gym floor and told his Providence players that if their toe touched the line, they were too close. The Friars weren’t a Cinderella by seed (they were sixth), but they certainly weren’t invited to the Final Four.
Ever since, the arc has been the great equalizer for teams who are undersized, undermanned or underseeded. Two years ago, Oakland’s Jack Gohlke went 10-for-10 from deep and nearly single-handedly led the 14th-seed Grizzlies to an upset of Kentucky.
Gimmick
Inarguably, the greatest Cinderella of all time didn’t quite get to midnight. In 1989, Princeton nearly knocked off mighty Georgetown in a game many called the birth of the real madness. Coached by the legendary Pete Carril, the Tigers’ methodical offense – directed by point center Kit Mueller and filled with eye-bending backdoor cuts – put the Hoyas on roller skates.
Similarly in 2011, then VCU coach Shaka Smart wreaked havoc via his swarming defense all the way to the Final Four. The Rams, seeded 11th, caused an average of 22 turnovers per game with its full-court trapping defense and outwitted everyone in their run from First Four to Final Four.
A higher seed feeling the pinch
There is no analytical scenario in which 16-seed Fairleigh Dickinson beats the giants that were Purdue and Zach Edey. And yet it happened in 2023.
The Knights’ quickness left the Boilermakers flat-footed, but it is also worth considering the mental baggage Purdue carried into that game.
Inarguably one of the best teams in the country annually, the Boilermakers had a string of March miseries. Before FDU, Purdue lost to 15th-seed Saint Peter’s in the Sweet 16 and 13-seed North Texas in the first round.
So, who has the goods this year?
(In alphabetical order)
Akron
No. 12 vs. No. 5 Texas Tech
- Transcendent player: How about three? Tavari Johnson is the head of the dragon, averaging 20 points and five assists per game, but Akron is spoiled with the guards that make you go in March. Shammah Scott and Evan Mahaffey are also double-digit scorers.
- Three-point shooting: The Zips are no Zips. Nearly half of their shots come from beyond the arc, and they make them. Akron is 14th in the nation beyond the arc.
- Higher seed pinch: Texas Tech lost its star, JT Toppin, to an ACL tear. Before his injury, Toppin led the Red Raiders in scoring, rebounding and blocks. Texas Tech has lost its last three.
Hofstra
No. 13 versus No. 4 Alabama
- Transcendent player: Not unlike his head coach, former Hofstra star Speedy Claxton, Cruz Davis is a one-man wrecking ball. He averages 20 points per game, four assists and shoots 40% from the arc.
- Three-point shooting: Hofstra is 29th in the nation from deep.
- Strong regular-season finish: The Pride have won 11 of their last 12.
- Higher seed pinch: Alabama’s second-leading scorer Aden Holloway was arrested after police found more than two pounds of pot in his apartment. He’s not expected to play.
South Florida
No. 11 seed vs No. 6 Louisville
- Strong regular-season finish: The Bulls have won their last 11, taking them to both the American Conference regular-season and tournament crown.
- Transcendent player: Izaiyah Nelson dropped 25 in a regular-season loss to Alabama earlier this season and averages 15.7 points and 9.6 boards.
- Higher seed pinch: Mikel Brown Jr. missed the last two regular-season games and the Cardinals’ two ACC Tournament games with a back injury. Pat Kelsey has found a way to win without Brown, but it makes the ‘Ville far riper for an upset without him.
VCU
No. 11 vs. No. 6 North Carolina
- Three-point shooting: The Rams are 37th in the nation in 3-point percentage and come into the NCAA Tournament on a decent tear. VCU shot 26-of-64 (40%) over three games in the Atlantic 10 Tournament.
- Strong regular-season finish: VCU has won 16 of its last 17 games.
- Gimmick: Phil Martelli Jr.’s team isn’t quite as chaotic as Smart’s back in the day, but the Rams do still force 17 turnovers per game.
- Higher seed pinch: North Carolina lost its star freshman, Caleb Wilson, first to a hand injury and now to a thumb injury. The Tar Heels are 5-3 without him.
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