There are a lot of skills that evaluators look at when judging prospects, including basic stats like points, rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks. There’s also the film study, the most important of all. But the best outcome is always when the eye test and the stats tell the same story.
That story is being told with AJ Dybantsa and his ability to draw fouls. No one in all of college basketball was better at getting to the line than AJ Dybantsa, and the stats back it up.
If there’s one skill that will point to Dybantsa becoming an elite scorer, it’s not just his midrange game, it’s not just the three-point shot, those things will come. One of the hardest things to develop is the willingness to drive to the lane, draw contact, and do it multiple times a game.
There are multiple reasons it’s a big deal that Dybantsa is the literal best at drawing fouls in college basketball. The first is that it shows his toughness and determination. If this was easy, everyone would do it. And to do it night after night after night, over and over again, I’m reminded of my favorite quote from Marshawn Lynch.
The other, more measurable outcome, is that Dybantsa will be an efficient scorer early on because of his ability to draw fouls. On nights when the shooting isn’t there, the production will still be there. With Dybantsa shooting 8.5 free throws per game, that would convert to elite free throw production in the league. There are some question marks with Dybantsa, like some defensive questions and how much he can improve his three-point shooting. But when you watch the film, it’s clear that this is something he’s going to do from day one in the NBA. The other thing you notice when watching Dybantsa is his long strides, which cover an incredible amount of ground. When the defenders try to stop him, he’s unafraid of drawing contact while going to the basket. And with his elite size and length, he is nearly impossible to contain. So when a defender is trying to stop Dybantsa, and they can’t recover, they’re trying to make up for it and go for the block, and Dybantsa punishes them every single time. It’s also not simple drives; Dybantsa uses change of direction and punishes defenders with some incredible force, whether on hook shots, up and unders, or other moves that belie his age.
Drafting is hard, there are so many variables that are hard to predict. But one thing that appears a near certainty is that AJ Dybantsa is going to be elite at getting to the line, which will immediately put him on pace to be one of the elite scorers in the NBA.
At FanDuel, AJ Dybantsa’s odds of going #1 keep jumping, he’s now at -450 with Darryn Peterson at +380. We’ll see if those odds stand, or if they adjust as the season goes along.