Although there are 68 teams in the field for March Madness, only eight of them apparently have a realistic chance of cutting down the nets at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.
The 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament is set to begin this Tuesday with the First Four. The opening game will feature a pair of No. 16 seeds in UMBC and Howard. Once their game is over, Texas and NC State will battle it out for the No. 11 seed in the West Region.
The opening round of the NCAA Tournament won't begin until this Thursday. Fans will be treated to nonstop basketball from then until Sunday night.
So who's a legitimate contender to win it all? College basketball analytics expert Evan Miyakawa used predicted offensive and defensive efficiency ratings for all 68 teams to sort them into categories.
Miyakawa only has Arizona, Duke, Florida, Houston, Illinois, Iowa State, Michigan and Purdue as title favorites.
Alabama, Arkansas, Gonzaga, St. John's, UConn and a few other programs have "Final Four potential," according to Miyakawa.
Here is the March Madness efficiency landscape, comparing each team's predicted offensive and defensive efficiency at https://t.co/cegyfz8ykZ, adjusted for current injuries: pic.twitter.com/CyMDMFKMDP
— Evan Miyakawa (@EvanMiya) March 17, 2026
Which programs are on upset alert?
While it's possible they make deep runs this March, it appears Kentucky, Louisville, Wisconsin and a few others are in the "hit-or-miss" category. They're anything but safe bets in this year's tournament.
According to USA Today, one of the most popular upset picks is Santa Clara over Kentucky. That game is set to take place Friday afternoon.
VCU over North Carolina is also a trendy pick heading into the opening round of the dance.
This story was originally published by The Spun on Mar 17, 2026, where it first appeared in the College Basketball section. Add The Spun as a Preferred Source by clicking here.