Texas and NC State should’ve been easily in the NCAA Tournament, but instead, they have to fight it out in the First Four for the shot at BYU in the first round.
The Longhorns crashed down the stretch, going 1-6, including a ten-point loss to Ole Miss in their SEC Tournament opener.
NC State hasn’t been much better, closing 2-6, but with a blowout win over North Carolina, along with an unacceptable loss to Notre Dame.
But both of these teams are far, far better than Dayton. The winner has a real shot to make some noise against a Cougar team that hasn’t exactly been on a tear.
Texas vs NC State Game Preview: One Season Saved, the Other Collapses
Texas vs NC State How To Watch
Date: Tuesday, March 17
Venue: UD Arena, Dayton, OH
Time: 9:15 pm ET
TV: truTV
Streaming: March Madness Live App, Paramount+, HBO Max
NC State Rankings: KenPom 34 | NET 36
Texas Rankings: KenPom 37 | NET 42
College Football Programs: No matter what happens in this and the rest of the tournament, both schools have something to look forward to. NC State has the talent to push for the ACC title, and Texas has Arch Manning and a team good enough to win the whole thing.
Key Stats
– NC State led the ACC and was 11th in the nation in three-point shooting, hitting 38.8% of its shots.
– Texas finished fourth in the nation and second in the SEC in made free throws with close to 20 per game.
Why Texas Will Win: Get Big and Physical
The Longhorns have to bully their way to a win.
They’re decent on the inside, great on the move, and wonderful at forcing mistakes to get to the free-throw line. To pull this off, though, it’s all about the rebounding.
Texas isn’t great defensively, but it’s bigger, stronger, and decent enough to win the rebounding margin by close to double-digits. There can’t be any wasted opportunities because …
Why NC State Will Win: Shoot Over the Strength
This is a physical enough Wolfpack team to hold up just enough not to get blasted too badly on the boards, but they need to start shooting from three and keep on firing.
Texas is tough on the inside. It can’t guard a lick, though, on the perimeter. It’s one of the worst teams in the nation at guarding the three – teams are hitting 36% from the outside. NC State is just as bad, but the Longhorns don’t live for the three.
NC State led the ACC in hitting the three, and it doesn’t have a problem giving the ball away for easy points when that’s not rocking. Texas doesn’t force enough turnovers to matter.
Texas vs NC State Prediction, Betting Lines
To hammer this home, can NC State hit from the outside?
Texas was 1-6 this season when allowing teams to hit better than 42% from the outside. NC State was 15-2 when making 38% or more of its three-point shots. There’s one little sticky part to this, though …
That one win by Texas came against NC State in a 102-97 firefight back in late November.
Neither team is guarding anyone lately, so assume this will be an up-and-down fight between two desperate teams looking to score in bunches. Texas will come up with a few more free throws than NC State will in a wild game.
Prediction: Texas 82, NC State 78
Consensus Line: Texas -1.5, o/u: 159.5
ATS Confidence out of 5: 1.5
Meet the NCAA Tournament Seeds
No. 1 | No. 2 | No. 3 | No. 4 | No. 5 | No. 6
No. 7 | No. 8 | No. 9 | No. 10 | No. 11
No. 12 | No. 13 | No. 14 | No. 15 | No. 16
Consensus Line from BetMGM, Caesars, DraftKings, and FanDuel. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Related: Howard vs UMBC Prediction and Preview: NCAA Tournament First Four
This story was originally published by College Football News on Mar 16, 2026, where it first appeared in the College Basketball section. Add College Football News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.