With the injury to Joshua Jefferson, it’s anyone’s guess for how the Cyclones will match up against an up and down Kentucky squad. It’s a bit of a miracle that Kentucky is even in this position, as they needed a desperation heave to fall true to force overtime against Santa Clara. It will also be a very split crowd, with both fanbases driving five to six hours to the gateway city.
Maybe Iowa State is fine?
Very early into their first round contest against Tennessee State, Joshua Jefferson landed oddly which resulted in a sprained left ankle. Losing your second team All-American should be a huge blow to your roster, but if you didn’t know about Jefferson before the game and started watching after his injury, there would be no sign that anything was out of the ordinary.
As a team, Iowa State connected on 53% of their shots from the field along with 46% shooting from deep. Their 108 points is a school record for a tournament game, with a 2.18 assist-to-turnover ratio being especially nice. Even their free throw shooting was solid at a cool 78%.
Three cheers to Toure and Heise
I’ve been waiting for a true “next man up” performance for a while, even if I would prefer it to happen without the explicit need for it due to injury. Killyan Toure played some solid games in Kansas City, but found a brand new level on Friday. In his best game of the season, going off for 25/11/6. His points and rebounds would lead the team, with his assists only being bested by Blake Buchanan, naturally. Opposing defenses had been giving Toure plenty of space beyond the arc, daring him to shoot it. I would think Kentucky should think twice about keeping open Sunday afternoon.
Heise registered 22 points on 8-13 shooting and 4-5 from long distance, representing his first game in double figures since the Houston win. Heise is another player that Iowa State should not need him to be the primary option, but him being a legitimate threat will open up space for everyone else on the court. I am a firm believer that basketball is a game of space. The peak of the Cyclone offense is only achieved with plenty of space for players to drive to the lane, and forcing defenders to stay on the perimeter is integral.
Kentucky is very odd this year
Naturally, Kentucky is still littered with talent up and down the lineup. But for those who have watched their games, there have been times where the output is less than the summation of their parts. That can make these types of teams very tricky to predict in March. Will their talent click in enough games in a row to make a deep run? Or will their lack of a strict playing style leave them vulnerable to teams that have more robust playing styles?
Kentucky is led by senior guard Otega Oweh. Oweh spent his first two collegiate seasons as a Sooner where he averaged 11.4 points per game as a sophomore before joining Mark Pope at Kentucky. In his two seasons in Lexington, the 6’ 4” guard has steadily improved his production and therefore his minutes to where he is now averaging 18.7 points per game in nearly 33 minutes. He is also the primary late game option, exemplified by his buzzer beater against Santa Clara to force overtime.
Within the often high-flying SEC, Kentucky does have some of the better defensive averages. They rank consistently in the fifth-seventh range among opponent scoring, shooting percentage, and turnovers. This also means that while Kentucky will also likely be unfazed if they allow a run or two, this also means that they have only faced one top ten defense all year in Florida. They dropped both games to the Gators.
There is a lot of uncertainty in the air, but Iowa State is currently favored by 5.5. What is the solution to overcoming JJ’s injury and a talented Kentucky squad?
- Light it up from deep. Do they need to shoot 46% from deep? Probably not. But keeping the deep threat opens up the space for Toure and Lipsey to drive to the basket in the wake of Jefferson’s absence.
- Make Kentucky uncomfortable. The way to beat Iowa State’s defense is staying cool during traps and making the extra pass. If Kentucky is always playing on their heels on offense, it will be a long day for the Wildcats.
- Everyone is a threat on offense. Every player on the roster can point at individual games where they can use it as their gold standard and proof that opponents should respect them. How does Kentucky address Toure’s newfound touch? Momcilovic’s stepback? Even Nelson’s driving ability? Iowa State needs to force all of these questions on Mark Pope’s squad.
Prediction: ISU 71 – UK 65