That stretch you circled on the calendar back when the schedule was released?
It has arrived.
In the first leg of the toughest gauntlet of conference play I have seen for this basketball team, the Cyclones are taking on the hottest team in the Big 12, the Kansas Jayhawks. Kansas is currently playing as well as anyone in the country, including a win over the previously undefeated Arizona Wildcats. That environment will be a candidate for crowd of the year, and it should be on the shortlist for best gameday experience for anyone in attendance.
Iowa State has stumbled out of the gate following their bye week, winning by just three at home to Baylor before falling in a funk against the horned frogs. Both games included collapses in the last two minutes or so, with Baylor ending on an 11-0 run and TCU closing the game on a 12-0 run to take the game and move up to the last team out according to ESPN.
Kansas? They are alright. Eight wins in a row, the first being a 21 point drumming of Iowa State in Lawrence. They looked pretty shaky through the first few games of conference play, but now have looked like a team that can absolutely make a run in the tournament.
How much Darryn Peterson will we see?
Recently dubbed “The Irish Goodbye” by Aaron Marner on X, the headlines around Darryn Peterson have largely revolved around his playing time, or lack thereof. He had been consistently playing around thirty minutes once league play started, but his availability has been in question for nearly every game.
While he played for the vast majority of the first half against BYU, he sat for the final sixteen minutes while the Jayhawk lead dwindled from over 20 to just four with 90 seconds remaining. If I was a head coach, I may want my lottery pick to play some of those minutes. Most recently, Darryn Peterson was a participant in warm ups, but later was ruled out with flu-like symptoms. There has already been plenty of speculation, but my question is if he was sick enough to be ruled out, why was he participating in warm ups with the rest of the team?
Per Pete Thamel, Peterson is a “full go” for the game, so keep an eye out for his minutes and production.
Kansas is still very, very, very good.
This Kansas team will be the best one to enter Hilton Coliseum since their national title, or at least the one with the highest ceiling. Their win over Arizona featured a three-headed monster of Melvin Council Jr., Flory Bidunga, and Bryson Tiller. The three combined for 64 points and 24 rebounds with just eleven minutes on the bench. Add in a possibly healthy Peterson, and it will require a top notch performance for the Cyclones to overcome the Jayhawks.
Struggling at the beginning of conference play, Kansas is still behind in some of the key metrics for the KenPom and NET rankings. They currently sit at 12th in KenPom with the 9th ranked defense, but their offense is still lagging behind at 40th. A 6-5 record in Q1 games is likely dragging Kansas back in the NET rankings, as they are currently 13th in between Nebraska and Louisville.
Wait, Iowa State is favored?
Iowa State is currently opening as 5.5 favorites, so the sportsbooks are still saying that this is close to an even matchup on a neutral court. The Cyclones have also won the last three in Ames, with two being very decisive. Even though some fans online are warning about the sky falling, and I do have my concerns, I also believe that this is still a team that can beat anyone in the country on the right day. Pair that with a raucous Hilton Coliseum, and this has the potential to be one of those games you talk about for years to come.
Following a game against Baylor where they had some flashes of their old selves coupled with some stretches of mediocrity, their game against TCU featured nearly everyone on the court having a tough night for their lowest point total of the season at 55. Their shooting splits are tough to look at, with a 41/23/25 being tough to win within any scenario. The fact that it was a tight game up until the final seconds is impressive as 62 points allowed is still one of the lowest allowed against power conference opponents.
Burn the TCU tape?
Hear me out. While there were definitely flaws within the offense on Tuesday, I believe that many problems that arose were due to TCU not having to respect everyone on the court. Both Nate Heise and Tamin Lipsey shot 0-3 from deep, which can allow another defender to sink into the lane to help out on drives or to help double Jefferson or Momcilovic. A lot of what Iowa State wants to do on offense requires a good amount of space for them to operate, but that only happens when every player receives a minimum amount of attention. It is a lot harder for a defender to come behind Jefferson and force a turnover when they allow a hot Lipsey, Heise, or Batemon to be free.
Turnovers and free throws are what really killed the Cyclones momentum throughout the game. Even a random Joe like me could shoot better than 2-8 from the line, and free throws are a completely manageable stat that rarely requires additional context, unless Shaq attempts thirty. However, I do believe that the influx of turnovers on Tuesday can be negated if space is opened up for Jefferson. The offense is at its best when Jefferson is the central figure of the offense. There is a valid reason why he is barely behind Lipsey in assists this year, and it’s because he has been able to recognize when to drive it himself and when to kick it out for a three, but only when he is given the time and space to do so.
So after all of that context, what are the keys to victory? Here are my thoughts:
- Start the game on fire. The slow starts from earlier in the season are starting to rear their ugly heads again, as the Cyclones only scored 12 against TCU in the first eight minutes and 24 in the first thirteen against Baylor. While I’m not expecting them to score 50 points in a half, they have to play strong from the jump, especially against a Kansas squad who took a 26 point lead in the first half in their matchup in Lawrence.
- Win the 3-point battle. These two teams are currently second and third in the conference in 3PT percentage during conference play. I am a firm believer that if the three pointers are falling, that only helps future attempts in the lane. If Momcilovic can find his stride again, paired with a second threat in either Lipsey, Heise, Batemon, or Toure, this offense can get humming and can run downhill really quickly.
- A Hilton crowd that we haven’t seen yet this season. The home schedule has been very backloaded, with many of the first couple conference home games being against opponents not expected to make the tournament. But with the hottest team in the country in town, and a home team in need of a boost, that is when Hilton shines. I went to the game in Lawrence, and while I know their atmosphere is the gold standard, I could also feel during pregame that the crowd was on a mission to will their team back into victory over a strong opponent after an uninspiring road loss. That night Iowa State’s undefeated season came to an end, and Kansas has gone undefeated since. Let’s see if the roles reverse.
Prediction: ISU 66 – KU 62