You can now fit Iowa State’s remaining schedule on one hand. With two explosive wins under their belt, Iowa State has put themselves into a position to look red hot going into March. They will need to keep their form as they enter the Marriott Center and take on a BYU squad that has taken some hard punches in their own gauntlet of Big 12 play.
Yes, Iowa State is still incredible.
The environment of the fanbase, especially on the various social media, was starting to panic after a sleepy win over Baylor and a loss in a trap game at TCU. While I also had some concerns, I think a lot of people lost perspective of how it is a long season, and there will be games where things don’t quite click, which just happened to occur during those two games. To put it lightly, things are clicking once again.
Against KU, the Cyclones had five players score into double figures, led by an 18-point performance from Milan Momcilovic. On the defensive side, Kansas had their worst scoring output of the season, tied with their home loss to UConn. Darryn Peterson had one of his least productive games, scoring just ten points on 3-10 shooting and committing three turnovers. The cherry on top is Iowa State winning the turnover battle 13-6, which will be one of the key factors for their success in March.
Two days later, Iowa State welcomed the Houston Cougars in what became an all-time classic. Leading by ten with just seven minutes to go, Houston was projected with a 92.8% chance to win. With the odds stacked against them, Hilton Magic made another appearance for a squad that has one of the highest potentials of any Cyclone roster in recent memory. Nate Heise stamped his spot into Iowa State lore with a no-dip three pointer with just over a minute left and the shot clock winding down. While I wasn’t there during the Orr years, specifically that upset over Oklahoma State in 1992, I would still put that shot as one of the loudest crowd reactions in Hilton Coliseum history. The win was the epitome of a team win, with the eight man rotation all scoring between six and twelve points, and Iowa State somehow committing a school record low of three turnovers against one of the best defenses for forcing turnovers.
BYU is in an ugly spiral
In their last nine games, BYU has produced a brutal 3-6 record, with many of those losses within single digits. While I will give them some leeway with five of the six losses coming against the top of the conference, I also believe that if they have any hope of doing well in the tournament, they need to demonstrate that they can come out ahead against high level teams.
Any optimism the fanbase still had took a substantial hit early into their game against Colorado. Just 45 seconds into the game, Richie Saunders exited with a leg injury. BYU released a statement on Sunday stating that Saunders suffered an ACL injury, which will almost always mean an athlete’s season is done regardless of what sport they play. Averaging 18 points and 5.8 rebounds per game, the blow of losing Saunders extends beyond his play on the court. A four year senior at BYU, he is becoming a rare breed in college basketball as more and more players either jump into the transfer portal or leave college basketball early to enter the draft. While he is a player that you hate playing against, I can also recognize that this should not be the way his college basketball career ends.
BYU still boasts one of the best freshmen in the country in AJ Dybantsa. He is averaging a staggering 24.8 points per game, and is second on the roster in both rebounds and assists per game. Paired with Robert Wright III at 18.5 points per game, and those two still exhibit a high level of play that should not be taken lightly. Unfortunately for the cougars, Kennard Davis Jr. is now in third place among BYU scorers at just 7.3 points per game. For the Cougars to overtake Iowa State or Texas Tech at the end of the season, I believe that it will require a third scorer that has a career night to overcome those two tasks. When has Iowa State lost due to a guy scoring a career high behind the arc?
So with that context, and ESPN giving Iowa State a slight advantage of a 55% chance to win, what is Iowa State’s path to victory on a late 9:30 central tipoff?
- Find a way to keep Dybantsa at bay. AJ Dybantsa has played at least 35 minutes in each of the last five games, and while he was already the first option, his role has only increased with the injury to Richie Saunders. It will naturally be difficult to slow down the projected All-American and top-3 draft pick, but even if he puts up numbers right at his average, Iowa State should be in a good position.
- Get a lead early and keep it. Iowa State is one of the best three point shooting teams in the conference, and if they can use that to establish an early lead, BYU may struggle to come back after losing their highest volume shooter from beyond the arc.
- Overcome the elements. All of their losses so far have come on the road, and with a late tipoff in altitude, that is not setting up Iowa State for success. If they acknowledge that from the jump and continue to play hard when the conditions may catch up to them, they should be able to come out of Provo with a win for the first time since Melvin Ejim flipped off the crowd in 2013.
Prediction: Iowa State 78 – BYU 70