Can Northern Iowa show that the Red Storm run was all a mirage and be a No. 12 with the skills to knock out a No. 5 seed?
The Panthers had two nice seasons in 2015 and 2016 with three NCAA Tournament wins between the two, and they made the Elite Eight in 2000.
St. John’s hasn’t pushed past the first weekend of the tournament since 1999.
It’s been a wonderful year for the Red Storm, with a blowout loss to UConn the only blemish in a 19-1 run to close the regular season. UNI was sixth in the Missouri Valley, but it got hot with a four-game winning streak to get here.
The winner gets Kansas or California Baptist.
St. John’s vs Northern Iowa Game Preview: Can the Panther Defense Hold Up?
St. John’s vs Northern Iowa How To Watch
Date: Friday, March 20
Venue: Viejas Arena, San Diego, CA
Time: 7:10 pm ET
TV: CBS
Streaming: March Madness Live App, Paramount+, HBO Max
Teams: (5) St. John’s 28-6, (12) Northern Iowa 23-12
St. John’s Rankings: KenPom 17 | NET 16
Northern Iowa Rankings: KenPom 74 | NET 72
College Football Programs: Northern Iowa has a better football program than the 3-9 record might indicate, but it needs the offense to be better. St. John’s hasn’t had a football team since 2002.
– CFN NCAA Tournament Schedule, Previews
Key Stats
– St. John’s is a killer on the offensive glass, leading the Big East with over 13 rebounds per game.
– Northern Iowa has a rebounding problem. It’s among the worst teams in the nation on the defensive glass, coming up with a mere 20.6 every time out.
Why Northern Iowa Will Win: The Panther Defense Will Lock Down
It’s an efficient Panther team that doesn’t pump the points, is in huge trouble when it gets down, and doesn’t grab rebounds.
However, it has a soul-crushing defense that stops everything from three, allows teams to make just 41% from the field, and overall, is 19-4 when keeping teams to under 43%.
There’s no three to worry about from the Red Storm – they only make seven a game. The Panthers are third in the nation in three-point D, so pack it in, make St. John’s hit jump shots and …
Why St. John’s Will Win: Miss Shots, Get Rebound, Go To the Line, Repeat
The Red Storm have an interesting style.
They attack the rim and get to the free throw line. Along the way, they get every rebound with one of the nation’s most active teams.
UNI doesn’t do a thing to get rebounds, and even worse in this, it’s 360th in the nation in free throws made per game, averaging just under ten. St. John’s should be at least +10 on free throws alone.
St. John’s vs Northern Iowa Prediction, Betting Lines
There are two ways this will go.
Either the Northern Iowa defensive style totally works, and St. John’s isn’t quite able to crack the code, or there’s an early Red Storm burst, and this is over in a hurry.
The Panthers were able to hang with a Saint Mary’s team that played a similar defensive style, and they hung tough against Tulsa, but overall, they’re 1-5 when allowing 70 points or more.
St. John’s has only been held to under 70 five times, won three of them, and the two losses were to UConn and Kentucky.
Prediction: St. John’s 72, Northern Iowa 60
Consensus Line: St. John’s -9.5, o/u: 131.5
ATS Confidence out of 5: 3.5
Meet the NCAA Tournament Seeds
No. 1 | No. 2 | No. 3 | No. 4 | No. 5 | No. 6
No. 7 | No. 8 | No. 9 | No. 10 | No. 11
No. 12 | No. 13 | No. 14 | No. 15 | No. 16
Consensus Line from BetMGM, Caesars, DraftKings, and FanDuel. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Related: Clemson vs Iowa Prediction and Preview: NCAA Tournament First Round
This story was originally published by College Football News on Mar 20, 2026, where it first appeared in the College Basketball section. Add College Football News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.