Saint Mary’s or Texas A&M? How to pick 7 vs. 10 matchup in 2026 March Madness bracket originally appeared on The Sporting News.
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The 2026 NCAA men’s basketball tournament bracket has been created, and now it is time to sift through the matchups, trying to find this year’s Cinderella team.
Last year, No. 10 Arkansas made it all the way to the Sweet 16, knocking off No. 7 Kansas and No. 2 St. John’s in the process. This year, one of the exciting 7-10 matchups will pit No. 7 Saint Mary’s against No. 10 Texas A&M in the South Region.
Saint Mary’s (27-5, 16-2 WCC) finished the season on a low note, losing its first conference tournament to Santa Clara. The Gaels had won eight games in a row before that, including an 11-point win over Gonzaga, which was given a No. 3 seed in the men’s NCAA Tournament.
Texas A&M (21-11, 11-7 SEC) got started slowly, but picked it up in the middle of the season. The Aggies, unfortunately, had a bad stretch at the beginning of February when they lost four games in a row. Texas A&M hasn’t been able to recover and has gone 4-7 in its last 11 games.
Here’s what you need to know about the matchup between No. 7 Saint Mary’s and No. 10 Texas A&M, including metrics, rankings, key players, season breakdowns and more.
MARCH MADNESS HQ: Live NCAA bracket | Full TV schedule | Printable bracket
Saint Mary’s vs. Texas A&M odds
Saint Mary’s vs. Texas A&M will be played on Thursday, March 19. Saint Mary’s opened as the slight betting favorite, per DraftKings.
Below are the details of the game, including betting odds, time, TV and venue:
- Odds: Saint Mary’s (-2.5)
- Date: Thursday, March 19
- Time:7:35 p.m. ET
- TV: truTV
- Arena: Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
WATCH: No. 7 Saint Mary’s vs. No. 10 Texas A&M LIVE on truTV with DIRECTV
Saint Mary’s (27-5, 16-2 in WCC)
Another year, another trip to the NCAA Tournament for Randy Bennett’s Saint Mary’s Gaels. They lost only four games in the regular season and finished 16-2 in the WCC, identical to Gonzaga. Getting to the second weekend has been a hump Bennett has struggled to get over, however, and the path to the Sweet 16 won’t be easy for his squad this year, either.
As always, defense is the focal point for Saint Mary’s. The Gaels allow fewer than 65 points per game, with opponents barely shooting better than 40 percent from the field and 30 percent from beyond the arc. Both marks are top-40 in the country. Level of competition is a valid concern — Saint Mary’s allowed 96 points in a November loss to Vanderbilt — but holding Gonzaga to 73 and 59, respectively, is a great sign.
SN EXPERT BRACKETS:DeCourcy (Arizona) | Bender (Michigan) | Iyer (Arizona) | Gay (UCLA women)
Offensively, Paulius Murauskas is the centerpiece. The Lithuanian forward is a strong rebounder, but he can score at a high level near the rim and even shoot from beyond the arc from time to time. Sophomore Mikey Lewis is nearly just as essential to the offense, shooting better than 37 percent from 3-point range but only 42 percent on shots inside the arc. Murauskas, Lewis and Jaden Dent are all capable scorers, while freshman Dillan Shaw is emerging as a potentially lethal 3-point shooter who can rebound as well.
The Gaels’ offense doesn’t always tick, particularly against high-level teams. The rotation only has a single senior, so experience level is something to consider, and Lewis had plenty of off nights in the middle of the season before catching fire again late in the year. If the 3s aren’t falling, Saint Mary’s doesn’t have much of a choice but to try to win ugly. On paper as a 7-seed, this is a team that should open the NCAA Tournament with a win. -Dan Treacy
- NET ranking: 22nd
- KenPom ranking: 24th
- Quad 1 record: 1-4
- Quad 2 record: 8-1
- Quad 3 record: 10-0
- Quad 4 record: 7-0
- Offensive efficiency ranking: 43rd
- Defensive efficiency ranking: 19th
Key players
Paulius Murauskas, F, Jr. (6-8, 225): 18.8 ppg, 7.7 rpg, 2.2 apg
Mikey Lewis, G, So. (6-3, 180): 14.2 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 2.2 apg
Joshua Dent, G, So. (6-3, 190): 13.0 ppg, 5.7 apg, 40.1% 3-pt
Dillan Shaw, G, Fr. (6-7, 205): 7.5 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 41.7% 3pt
Andrew McKeever, C, Jr. (7-1, 255): 8.4 ppg, 9.2 rpg, 1.7 apg
Texas A&M (21-11, 11-7 in SEC)
Bucky McMillan got a late start when it came to roster-building, as he wasn’t hired until the early days of April last year, but the Aggies beat expectations this season and have set the foundation for a bright future. Can they remain ahead of schedule with an NCAA Tournament run?
Texas A&M has depth and experience on its side. Even with Indiana transfer Mackenzie Mgbako missing most of the season, McMillan can go eight or nine deep with his rotation, and his three leading scorers are all seniors. Once this group figured out how to play with one another, that experience made a major difference in a crowded SEC. It can make a difference in March, too,
The Aggies rely pretty heavily on the 3-pointer, ranking top-15 nationally in attempts per game. Rashaun Agee is a big body who can get in the paint and score, but Rylan Griffen, Ruben Dominguez, Pop Isaacs and even Zach Clemence are all strong shooters.
There isn’t a great deal of size outside of Agee – Clemence is taller but hasn’t fully found his footing as a paint presence – so it’s imperative that the shots fall for Texas A&M. That becomes more likely when four players, rather than one or two, can shoot the ball confidently. Texas A&M also ranks top-15 nationally in assist-to-turnover ratio.
The Aggies have a strong perimeter defense but are softer closer to the basket, with opponents shooting better than 53 percent on 2-point shots. The ideal matchup for Texas A&M is a team that can also shoot the ball – McMillan is confident his team can out-shoot just about anyone – but a size mismatch could spell trouble for this group. -Dan Treacy
- NET ranking: 43rd
- KenPom ranking: 39th
- Quad 1 record: 5-8
- Quad 2 record: 4-3
- Quad 3 record: 4-0
- Quad 4 record: 8-0
- Offensive efficiency ranking: 49th
- Defensive efficiency ranking: 40th
Key players
Rashaun Agee, F, Sr. (6-7, 210): 14.7 ppg, 8.9 rpg, 2.4 apg
Rylan Griffen, G, Sr. (6-5, 180): 11.6 ppg, 2.6 apg, 41.7% 3-pt
Marcus Hill, G, Sr. (6-4, 185): 10.8 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 1.6 apg
Pop Isaacs, G, Sr. (6-2, 170): 10.1 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 2.6 apg
Ruben Dominguez, G, So. (6-6, 213): 10.3 ppg, 2.4 rpg, 40.4% 3-pt
SN AWARDS: All-America team | Player of the Year | Coach of the Year
Saint Mary’s vs. Texas A&M prediction
This is the second year in a row that Saint Mary’s made the men’s NCAA Tournament as a No. 7 seed. Last season, they took on No. 10 Vanderbilt and won 59-56. The Gaels then got blown out by Alabama, which looked like the 2025 Cinderella team to watch until its Elite Eight blowout loss to Duke.
If the Gaels had had a deeper run in their conference tournament, they likely would have cracked the tournament field as a No. 5 or No. 6 seed, but the early exit to Santa Clara hurt their standing. Still, Saint Mary’s has shown that it can compete with blueblood programs despite playing the regular season in the West Coast Conference.
Texas A&M was expected to be more on the rebuilding side of things in the 2025-2026 season, but played well enough to make the NCAA Tournament. This game will likely be decided by which version of the Aggies shows up. If it is the recent state of the team that has won only four games in their last 11, it projects to be an early exit for the Aggies. If Texas A&M can recapture the momentum it had from late November to mid-January, it will likely pull off the first-round upset.
Even though both teams are coming off losses in their conference tournaments, the Gaels will be led by Murauskus, who projects to be a tough matchup even for an SEC team. Saint Mary’s should hold strong and make it out of the first round for the second-consecutive season and the fourth time in the last five years.
MORE UPSET PICKS:10 seeds | 11 seeds | 12 seeds | 13 seeds
History of 7 vs. 10 upsets in NCAA tournament
Seven seeds hold a 97-62 advantage over 10 seeds since 1985, the year the NCAA Tournament bracket expanded to 64 teams.
Since 2008, at least one 10 seed has advanced past the Round of 64. Last year, two 10-seeds pulled upsets in the opening round. No. 10 New Mexico beat Marquette 75-66, and No. 10 Arkansas beat Kansas 79-72. Arkansas went on to upset No. 2 St. John’s 75-66 before losing in the Sweet 16.
Here’s a look back at recent upsets in 7-vs-10 matchups.
| Year | Result |
| 2025 | Arkansas 79, Kansas 72 |
| New Mexico 75, Marquette 66 | |
| 2024 | Colorado 102, Florida 100 |
| 2023 | Penn State 76, Texas A&M 59 |
| 2022 | Miami (Fla.) 68, USC 66 |
| 2021 | Maryland 63, UConn 54 |
| Rutgers 60, Clemson 56 | |
| 2019 | Florida 70, Nevada 61 |
| Iowa 79, Cincinnati 72 | |
| Minnesota 86, Louisville 76 | |
| 2018 | Butler 79, Arkansas 62 |
| 2017 | Wichita State 64, Dayton 58 |
| 2016 | VCU 75, Oregon State 67 |
| Syracuse 70, Dayton 51 | |
| 2015 | Ohio State 75, VCU 72 |
| 2014 | Stanford 58, New Mexico 53 |
| 2013 | Iowa State 76, Notre Dame 58 |
| 2012 | Xavier 67, Notre Dame 63 |
| 2012 | Purdue 72, Saint Mary’s 69 |
| 2011 | Florida State 57, Texas A&M 50 |
| 2010 | Georgia Tech 64, Oklahoma State 59 |
| Missouri 86, Clemson 78 | |
| Saint Mary’s 80, Richmond 71 |
HISTORY OF UPSETS BY SEED:
16 vs. 1 | 15 vs. 2 | 14 vs. 3 | 13 vs. 4 | 12 vs. 5
Dan Treacy contributed to this article.