Northwestern is turning the page to a new chapter with first-year head coach Carla Berube as the protagonist. Berube spent her last seven seasons as the head Tiger at Princeton, where she had immense success with an .835 winning percentage and five Ivy League titles, making the NCAA Tournament in each of those seasons.
She takes over a Northwestern program that has been a bit disappointing in recent years. Last year, the ‘Cats finished with an 8-21 record, finishing 2-16 in the Big Ten, landing them 17th in the conference.
With returning talent and newcomers through the portal and as recruits, will winning and success continue to follow Berube into Evanston?
This is what the floor and ceiling for the Wildcats could look like:
Ceiling: Drastic improvement, on the NCAA Tournament bubble
It is not a secret that Northwestern was not a very strong team last year, losing 21 of its final 23 games. But it is also no secret that Berube wins. Google her. In a dream scenario, every single ounce of talent on this Northwestern team is mustered and utilized to its fullest potential.
The team will live and die by senior guard Casey Harter. She leveled up her game last year, averaging 10 points per game while holding her own defensively. If she can be a true two-way talent, the ‘Cats will have a star that can carry them night-to-night.
Hopefully she will not be alone in that effort, as players like junior guard Xamiya Walton and transfers Lily Carmody (Boston College) and Lexi Blue (Kentucky) will prove to be vital pieces for the team. Walton will be expected to expand her game as a point guard this season — something that is new to her. She only averaged 1.8 assists per game on the wing last season, but she is more than capable of taking a leap as a playmaker.
Carmody was an incredibly talented scorer in the ACC last season, averaging 12.8 points per game for the Eagles last season. Replicating that level of production in the Big Ten means Northwestern gets a reliable second option to pair with Harter. Blue will be tenacious on the glass on defense, being an anchor the team can rely on.
Furthermore, this team has a lot of untapped potential to farm in the early portion of the season. This includes junior guards Kat Righeimer and Claire Keswick, as well as a pair of Syracuse Orange transfers: Camdyn Nelson and Jasmyn Cooper-Derba.
Righeimer and Keswick played sparingly last year, but showed a lot when they did. Righeimer has the potential to be a lethal scorer off the bench who can give valuable minutes while the starters are resting. Keswick will provide much-needed floor spacing that can bail Northwestern out late into the shot clock.
Nelson can provide playmaking and facilitation as a ball handler with the ability to read the floor, as when she was given the opportunity to lead the offense in Syracuse, she hovered around one assist a game in under ten minutes of action. Cooper-Debra has maybe the most raw talent amongst this group. She showed a lot of promise in high school as a versatile defensive threat.
This is all without mentioning all the other returning players for Northwestern who could see increased playing time this year and who could provide something valuable to the team (i.e — Rachel Mutombo, Sandra Moreno and Amparo López).
If Berube is able to implement the system she employed back in Princeton, which utilized versatile players to be able to create offense in a myriad of ways and be switchable on defense. An unorthodox system like this, which is centered on a strong team approach and communication, could prove to be disruptive in a difficult Big Ten conference.
The team will beat less talented teams in the conference, put up a fight against teams that no one would expect them to and might even snag some wins against tougher competition.
With an expanded tournament format, the ‘Cats could find themselves within the bubble. They might just clear it if the chips fall into place.
Floor: Difficult transition year, finish bottom of the conference
Yet again, there are a lot of moving parts here. Berube is coming to a new school in a far more competitive conference. The transfers she brought have shown flashes, but do not have solid body work to base expectations on. Leaps from Harter and Walton are far from guaranteed. There are a lot of ways this can go wrong.
Firstly, there is an immense lack of proven talent on the rosters. While Carmody averaged double digits last season, wins did not accompany those stats. Boston College only won one game in conference play. There is always a possibility that those stats were simply “empty.” On the other side of the spectrum, Blue was a minute part of an incredibly successful Kentucky team, averaging 10.9 minutes a game last year.
Nelson and Cooper-Debra logged under 11 minutes per game last year. They did not see much burn last year, but are going to be expected to be key contributors out the gate for the Wildcats. There is a chance they do not adjust quickly enough, and the team struggles as a result.
Harter may also take time to adjust to being the no. 1 option. The volume of shots she gets can cause inefficient scoring at first in a brand-new system. Similarly, Walton may struggle with being the team’s facilitator. This adjustment period may lead to a slow start for the team and can be exploited once conference play starts.
The final hurdle, if it arises, is the possibility that Berube’s mode of success at Princeton won’t translate to the Big Ten. Berube loves to run smaller lineups. However, last year, Northwestern struggled to contend with bigger and more physical teams. That could be an even worse challenge this season.
If the talent that is expected to show up doesn’t do so, the uncertainty reaches further heights and the staff searches deeper down the bench. Berube might have to turn to first-years like Walton’s younger sister, Xyanna, throwing first-years into the fire like that has proven to be a recipe for disaster.
This could prove to be a repeat of last season or even worse, just in a different font: figuring out a new system, competing in a tough conference and the battle of finding chemistry, resulting in an incredibly frustrating season.