Predicting Upsets In College Basketball This Week

There weren’t a whole lot of upsets this past week, as the upper class of college hoops continues to separate itself in conference play. Or, does that just mean that we are in for an extra chaotic final month of the regular season? In either event, we’ve got a great slate of college basketball ahead of us this week, and here are our upset picks for the week!

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Kansas State over Baylor

Feb 11, 2026; Manhattan, Kansas, USA; Kansas State Wildcats head coach Jerome Tang looks on during the first half against he Cincinnati Bearcats at Bramlage Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Scott Sewell-Imagn Images

This is an example of a team getting a “fired coach” boost. After getting eviscerated by Head Coach Jerome Tang in the postgame press conference following a loss to Cincinnati, the Wildcats responded by playing with pride and keeping the margin respectable at Houston over the weekend, and Tang was fired shortly after. I think the Wildcats should have ample motivation to beat Baylor in the midst of a lost season for both teams.

Iowa over Nebraska

We have seen enough this season to know that Iowa goes exactly as Bennett Stirtz goes. And I don’t think that Nebraska has the requisite perimeter defenders to contain Stirtz. He’ll have to get some help from his role players, but that’s only more likely to happen in front of a raucous home crowd.

Missouri over Vanderbilt

Feb 14, 2026; Columbia, Missouri, USA; Missouri Tigers forward Mark Mitchell (25) controls the ball as Texas Longhorns forward Dailyn Swain (3) defends during the second half of the game at Mizzou Arena. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-Imagn Images

If you were to design a player in a lab to be a matchup nightmare for Vanderbilt, they would look like Missouri’s Mark Mitchell. The long, athletic power forward is going to put a lot of pressure on Vanderbilt’s front line at the rim, and I fail to see how they will defend him without getting caught up in foul trouble. Add that to the fact that Missouri’s ball pressure is going to force Tyler Tanner to do a lot on his own, and I think this is a great spot for the Tigers.

Wake Forest over Clemson

The Clemson Tigers are fading fast, coming into this one with back-to-back losses. And in those losses, they’ve been very inconsistent with their substitutions and rotations. This is a team that is clearly still looking for answers. Meanwhile, Wake Forest is not completely out of the NCAA Tournament conversation, and Juke Harris can single-handedly take over a game at any moment.

USC over Illinois

Feb 11, 2026; Columbus, Ohio, USA; USC Trojans guard Alijah Arenas (0) reacts as time winds down during the second half against the Ohio State Buckeyes at Value City Arena. Mandatory Credit: Joseph Maiorana-Imagn Images

Keaton Wagler has been absolutely incredible for Illinois over the past month. But we’ve seen him struggle against teams with hyper-athletic guards that he can’t blow by or shake off the ball. USC has a very athletic pair in Alijah Arenas and Kam Woods, and they also have the size down low to combat Illinois’ big lineups. This is also a cross-country road trip for the Illini, so this all adds up to being a great spot to back the Trojans.