How is every contender to make the NCAA Tournament likely to finish the regular season?
With just a few games left for each team, a bulk of the field is already set, but only about 45 of the teams below will get the call, with 23 teams likely to come from the one-bid conferences.
So no, not every team likely to be in the NCAA Tournament is listed here – those 23 teams will almost certainly be decided by their respective conference tournaments.
For those from the bigger leagues fighting for spots, here’s our prediction of what will happen the rest of the regular season.
Game-by-Game Predictions for the Top NCAA Tournament Teams
We include all the teams that have even a crazy-distant shot to get close if they win out. If your team isn’t listed here, it’s almost certainly out of the NCAA mix without winning the conference tournament.
The NCAA Seed is our prediction for each team, and in the projected wins and losses, it’s in the order of when the games are played.
ACC
The ACC doesn’t have the star power of the Big Ten or Big 12, but Duke, Virginia, and Louisville will be stars in March, and the conference as a whole should get at least eight teams in.
Cal
18-8, Final Prediction: 21-10, NCAA Seed: Bubble/Out
Projected Wins
Stanford, SMU, Pitt
Projected Losses
at Georgia Tech, at Wake Forest
Clemson
20-6, Final Prediction: 22-10, NCAA Seed: 8
Projected Wins
Florida State, Georgia Tech
Projected Losses
at Wake Forest, Louisville, at North Carolina
Duke
24-2, Final Prediction: 28-3, NCAA Seed: 1
Projected Wins
at Notre Dame, Virginia, at NC State, North Carolina
Projected Losses
Michigan (in Washington, DC)
Louisville
19-6, Final Prediction: 24-7, NCAA Seed: 4
Projected Wins
at SMU, Georgia Tech, at Clemson, Syracuse, at Miami
Projected Losses
at North Carolina
Miami
20-5, Final Prediction: 24-7, NCAA Seed: 8
Projected Wins
Virginia Tech, at Florida State, Boston College, at SMU
Projected Losses
at Virginia, Louisville
NC State
18-8, Final Prediction: 21-10, NCAA Seed: 7
Projected Wins
North Carolina. at Notre Dame, Stanford
Projected Losses
at Virginia, Duke
North Carolina
20-5, Final Prediction: 24-7, NCAA Seed: 6
Projected Wins
at Syracuse, Louisville, Virginia Tech, Clemson
Projected Losses
at NC State, at Duke
SMU
17-8, Final Prediction: 19-12, NCAA Seed: 10
Projected Wins
Boston College, at Stanford
Projected Losses
Louisville, at Cal, Miami, at Florida State
Stanford
16-10, Final Prediction: 18-13, NCAA Seed: Out
Projected Wins
Pitt, at Notre Dame
Projected Losses
at Cal, SMU, at NC State
Syracuse
15-12, Final Prediction: 16-15, NCAA Seed: Out
Projected Wins
Pitt
Projected Losses
North Carolina, at Wake Forest, at Louisville
Virginia
22-3, Final Prediction: 27-4, NCAA Seed: 3
Projected Wins
at Georgia Tech, Miami, NC State, Wake Forest, Virginia Tech
Projected Losses
at Duke
Virginia Tech
17-9, Final Prediction: 19-12, NCAA Seed: Bubble/Out
Projected Wins
Wake Forest, Boston College
Projected Losses
at Miami, at North Carolina, at Virginia
Wake Forest
13-12, Final Prediction: 17-14, NCAA Seed: Out
Projected Wins
Clemson, at Boston College, Syracuse
Projected Losses
at Virginia Tech, at Virginia
Atlantic 10 Conference
The Atlantic 10 has a few dangerous teams, but realistically, it’s a one-bid conference if Saint Louis rolls through the conference tournament. But if it’s VCU – or Georgia Washington, or Dayton, or George Mason – pulling it out, Saint Louis is still likely to get an at-large bid.
Saint Louis
24-1, Final Prediction: 29-2, NCAA Seed: 6
Projected Wins
at Rhode Island, VCU, at Dayton, Duquesne, Loyola-Chicago
Projected Losses
at George Mason
VCU
20-6, Final Prediction: 23-9, NCAA Seed: Bubble/Out
Projected Wins
George Washington. Fordham, George Mason
Projected Losses
at Saint Louis, at Dayton
Big 12 Conference
The Big 12 will do its part to fill up the NCAA Tournament with six teams in, and likely to all be five seeds or higher.
Arizona, Houston, and Iowa State are all in the battle to be No. 1 seeds, but no matter where they are, all three are threats to win the national title. Baylor, TCU, UCF, and a few others are fighting for the invite.
Arizona
23-2, Final Prediction: 28-3, NCAA Seed: 1
Projected Wins
BYU, at Baylor, Kansas, Iowa State, at Colorado
Projected Losses
at Houston
Baylor
13-12, Final Prediction: 16-15, NCAA Seed: Out
Projected Wins
at Kansas State, Arizona State, Utah
Projected Losses
Arizona, at UCF, at Houston
BYU
19-6, Final Prediction: 23-8, NCAA Seed: 5
Projected Wins
UCF, at West Virginia, at Cincinnati, Texas Tech
Projected Losses
at Arizona, Iowa State
Cincinnati
14-12, Final Prediction: 15-16, NCAA Seed: Out
Projected Wins
Oklahoma State
Projected Losses
at Kansas, at Texas Tech, BYU, at TCU
Houston
23-3, Final Prediction: 28-3, NCAA Seed: 1
Projected Wins
Arizona, at Kansas, Colorado, Baylor, at Oklahoma State
Projected Losses
None
Iowa State
23-3, Final Prediction: 27-5, NCAA Seed: 2
Projected Wins
at BYU, at Utah, Texas Tech, Arizona State
Projected Losses
at Arizona
Kansas
19-6, Final Prediction: 23-8, NCAA Seed: 4
Projected Wins
at Oklahoma State, Cincinnati, at Arizona State, Kansas State
Projected Losses
Houston, at Arizona
Oklahoma State
16-9, Final Prediction: 17-14, NCAA Seed: Bubble/Out
Projected Wins
West Virginia
Projected Losses
Kansas, at Colorado, at Cincinnati, at UCF, Houston
TCU
16-9, Final Prediction: 20-11, NCAA Seed: Bubble/Out
Projected Wins
West Virginia, Arizona State, at Kansas State, Cincinnati
Projected Losses
at UCF, at Texas Tech
Texas Tech
19-6, Final Prediction: 23-8, NCAA Seed: 5
Projected Wins
at Arizona State, Kansas State, Cincinnati, TCU
Projected Losses
at Iowa State, at BYU
UCF
17-7, Final Prediction: 21-9, NCAA Seed: 9
Projected Wins
TCU, at Utah, Baylor, Oklahoma State
Projected Losses
at BYU, at West Virginia
West Virginia
16-9, Final Prediction: 19-12, NCAA Seed: Bubble/Out
Projected Wins
Utah, at Kansas State, UCF
Projected Losses
at TCU, at Oklahoma State, BYU
Big East Conference
Can St. John’s and Villanova make any noise? UConn is the star of the Big East, but the league will be expecting big runs from the teams that get in. At the moment, though, only three teams are likely to get in.
Seton Hall
17-8, Final Prediction: 19-10, NCAA Seed: Bubble/Out
Projected Wins
DePaul, Georgetown
Projected Losses
at Butler, at UConn, at Xavier, St. John’s
St. John’s
20-5, Final Prediction: 24-6, NCAA Seed: 6
Projected Wins
at Marquette, Creighton, Villanova, Georgetown, at Seton Hall
Projected Losses
at UConn
UConn
24-2, Final Prediction: 29-2, NCAA Seed: 2
Projected Wins
Creighton, at Villanova, St. John’s, Seton Hall, at Marquette
Projected Losses
None
Villanova
20-5, Final Prediction: 24-7, NCAA Seed: 7
Projected Wins
at Xavier, Butler. at DePaul, Xavier
Projected Losses
UConn, at St. John’s
Big Ten Conference
The best conference in college basketball this regular season should get eight teams in, and there’s a shot at getting in 12 with a little bit of luck. It’ll be a massive disappointment if the league doesn’t own the Sweet 16.
Illinois
21-5, Final Prediction: 25-6, NCAA Seed: 3
Projected Wins
at USC, at UCLA, Oregon, at Maryland
Projected Losses
Michigan
Indiana
17-9, Final Prediction: 19-12, NCAA Seed: 10
Projected Wins
Northwestern, Minnesota
Projected Losses
at Purdue, Michigan State, at Ohio State
Iowa
18-7, Final Prediction: 20-11, NCAA Seed: 9
Projected Wins
Ohio State, at Penn State,
Projected Losses
Nebraska, at Wisconsin, Michigan, at Nebraska
Michigan
24-1, Final Prediction: 30-1, NCAA Seed: 1
Projected Wins
at Purdue, Duke (in Washington DC), Minnesota, at Illinois, at Iowa, Michigan State
Projected Losses
None
Michigan State
20-5, Final Prediction: 24-6, NCAA Seed: 3
Projected Wins
UCLA, Ohio State, at Purdue, at Indiana, Rutgers
Projected Losses
at Michigan
Nebraska
22-3, Final Prediction: 28-3, NCAA Seed: 2
Projected Wins
at Iowa, Penn State, Maryland, at USC, at UCLA, Iowa
Projected Losses
None
Ohio State
16-9, Final Prediction: 18-13, NCAA Seed: 11
Projected Wins
at Penn State, Indiana
Projected Losses
Wisconsin, at Michigan State, at Iowa, Purdue
Purdue
21-4, Final Prediction: 25-6, NCAA Seed: 4
Projected Wins
Indiana, at Ohio State, at Northwestern, Wisconsin
Projected Losses
Michigan, Michigan State
UCLA
17-8, Final Prediction: 18-13, NCAA Seed: 11
Projected Wins
USC
Projected Losses
at Michigan State, Illinois, at Minnesota, Nebraska, at USC
USC
18-7, Final Prediction: 20-11, NCAA Seed: Bubble/Out
Projected Wins
Oregon, UCLA
Projected Losses
Illinois, at UCLA, Nebraska, at Washington
Wisconsin
18-7, Final Prediction: 22-9, NCAA Seed: 8
Projected Wins
at Ohio State, Iowa, at Oregon, Maryland
Projected Losses
at Washington, at Purdue
MAC
It’s this simple. If Miami University wins the MAC Tournament, it’s in the NCAA Tournament, Akron is out, and some random bubble team gets in. If anyone else but the RedHawks win the MAC title to take the league’s automatic invite, then welcome to a massive national debate.
Akron
20-5, Final Prediction: 25-6, NCAA Seed: Out
Projected Wins
at Western Michigan, at Ball State, Buffalo, at Central Michigan, Northern Illinois
Projected Losses
at Kent State
Miami University
25-0, Final Prediction: 31-0, NCAA Seed: 9
Projected Wins
at UMass, Bowling Green, at Eastern Michigan, at Western Michigan, Toledo, at Ohio
Projected Losses
None
Mountain West Conference
How many Mountain West teams can get in? Utah State is in no matter what at this point, and the league is way too decent to only get one team in.
The San Diego State game at New Mexico will mean a whole lot, but this might come down to the conference tournament.
Boise State
15-10, Final Prediction: 19-12, NCAA Seed: Out
Projected Wins
San Jose State, Wyoming, at Fresno State, at Colorado State
Projected Losses
at Utah State, San Diego State
Grand Canyon
16-9, Final Prediction: 20-11, NCAA Seed: Out
Projected Wins
Wyoming, UNLV, at Air Force, Fresno State
Projected Losses
at San Diego State, at Utah State
Nevada
17-8, Final Prediction: 21-10, NCAA Seed: Out
Projected Wins
at San Jose State, New Mexico, at Wyoming, Air Force
Projected Losses
Utah State, at UNLV
New Mexico
19-6, Final Prediction: 23-8, NCAA Seed: Bubble/Out
Projected Wins
Air Force, at Fresno State, San Diego State, Colorado State
Projected Losses
at Nevada, at Utah State
San Diego State
18-6, Final Prediction: 23-7, NCAA Seed: 10
Projected Wins
Grand Canyon, at Colorado State, Utah State, at Boise State, UNLV
Projected Losses
at New Mexico
Utah State
22-3, Final Prediction: 27-4, NCAA Seed: 7
Projected Wins
Boise State, at Nevada, Grand Canyon, at UNLV, New Mexico
Projected Losses
at San Diego State
SEC
Just when it seemed like the SEC was taking a step back after a monstrous 2024-2025 season and a great NCAA Tournament, Florida reappeared, looking and playing like its national championship self again.
The league will be just fine when it comes to bids. Six teams are a lock, and out of Texas, Georgia, Auburn, Texas A&M, Missouri, LSU, and Oklahoma, at least two more should get in.
Alabama
18-7, Final Prediction: 23-8, NCAA Seed: 6
Projected Wins
Arkansas, at LSU, Mississippi State, at Georgia, Auburn
Projected Losses
at Tennessee
Arkansas
19-6, Final Prediction: 23-8, NCAA Seed: 5
Projected Wins
Missouri, Texas A&M, Texas, at Missouri
Projected Losses
at Alabama, at Florida,
Auburn
14-11, Final Prediction: 17-14, NCAA Seed: 9
Projected Wins
at Mississippi State, Ole Miss, LSU
Projected Losses
Kentucky, at Oklahoma, Alabama
Florida
19-6, Final Prediction: 24-7, NCAA Seed: 2
Projected Wins South Carolina, at Ole Miss, at Texas, Arkansas, Mississippi State
Projected Losses at Kentucky
Georgia
17-8, Final Prediction: 20-11, NCAA Seed: 11
Projected Wins
Texas, South Carolina, at Mississippi State
Projected Losses
at Kentucky, at Vanderbilt, Alabama
Kentucky
17-8, Final Prediction: 22-9, NCAA Seed: 7
Projected Wins
Georgia, at Auburn, at South Carolina, Vanderbilt, at Texas A&M, Florida
Projected Losses
Vanderbilt
LSU
14-11, Final Prediction: 16-15, NCAA Seed: Bubble/Out
Projected Wins
at Auburn, Texas A&M
Projected Losses
at Texas, Alabama, at Ole Miss, at Auburn
Missouri
17-8, Final Prediction: 19-12, NCAA Seed: Bubble/Out
Projected Wins
at Mississippi State, at Oklahoma
Projected Losses
Vanderbilt, at Arkansas, Tennessee, Arkansas
Oklahoma
13-12, Final Prediction: 15-16, NCAA Seed: Bubble/Out
Projected Wins
Texas A&M, Auburn
Projected Losses
at Tennessee, at LSU, Missouri, at Texas
Tennessee
18-7, Final Prediction: 24-7, NCAA Seed: 5
Projected Wins
Oklahoma, at Vanderbilt, at Missouri, Alabama, at South Carolina, Vanderbilt
Projected Losses
None
Texas
16-9, Final Prediction: 18-13, NCAA Seed: 10
Projected Wins
LSU, Oklahoma
Projected Losses
at Georgia, Florida, at Texas A&M, at Arkansas
Texas A&M
17-8, Final Prediction: 19-12, NCAA Seed: 11
Projected Wins
Ole Miss, Texas
Projected Losses
at Oklahoma, at Arkansas, Kentucky, at LSU
Vanderbilt
21-4, Final Prediction: 24-7, NCAA Seed: 4
Projected Wins
at Missouri, at Kentucky, at Ole Miss
Projected Losses
Tennessee, Georgia, at Tennessee
West Coast Conference
The WCC should be among the most interesting conferences that several teams from big leagues need to care about.
Gonzaga is a mortal lock, and Saint Mary’s and Santa Clara are both knocking on the NCAA Tournament door, but the Gaels and Broncos have to close strong.
Gonzaga
25-2, Final Prediction: 28-3, NCAA Seed: 3
Projected Wins
at San Francisco, Pacific, Portland
Projected Losses
at Saint Mary’s
Saint Mary’s
23-4, Final Prediction: 27-4, NCAA Seed: 8
Projected Wins
at Seattle, at Washington State, Santa Clara, Gonzaga
Projected Losses
None
Santa Clara
22-6, Final Prediction: 24-7, NCAA Seed: 11
Projected Wins
at San Francisco, Oregon State
Projected Losses
at Saint Mary’s
Related: NCAA Tournament Bracket Projections: Week 15 Seeds, Bubble Watch
This story was originally published by College Football News on Feb 17, 2026, where it first appeared in the College Basketball section. Add College Football News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.