It has to be frustrating for anyone involved and interested in Oklahoma basketball the last few years. The 2024-25 version went 6-12 in the SEC, but still made the NCAA Tournament because they beat Arizona, Louisville, and Michigan before conference play started. But OU couldn’t get out of their own way at times during their first foray as a member of the SEC.
Then last season, the script nearly repeated itself just with a different cast of characters. After winning their first game against Ole Miss, Oklahoma lost their next nine contests. Some were close, some were not. But after losing 9 straight, the Sooners took to the road and beat Vanderbilt on the road. Then they beat Georgia, suddenly they won six of their last 8 games to recover to a 7-11 final record. It wasn’t enough to make the tournament again, but it was enough to restore a little faith in the Porter Moser era.
But maybe the most important part was the impression on Xzayvier Brown and Derrion Reed, two of the prized portal recruits from the season before. They fell all the way to 71st in KenPom.com’s rankings before recovering to finish 41st at the end of the year.
Now the question is how much can one team carry momentum from one season to the next?
Previous SEC Previews:
- 11. LSU Tigers, 7-11
- 12. Auburn Tigers, 7-11
- 13. Georgia Bulldogs: 6-12
- 14. South Carolina Gamecocks, 4-14
- 15. Ole Miss Rebels: 4-14
- 16. Mississippi State Bulldogs: 3-15
Oklahoma Sooners
- Last season: 21 – 16 (7-11 in conference) #41
- The Masses Prediction: 11th in conference
- SEC Media: 12th
- Analytics Average: 9th in conference, 29th overall
HEAD COACH: Porter Moser | 6th Season, 95-75
It’s definitely been a time for Porter Moser since taking over in Norman. OU fans maybe took their program for granted for a lot of years. From Billy Tubbs to Kelvin Sampson to Lon Kruger, and even Jeff Capel for a few years, Oklahoma basketball was a tournament team nearly every year. Tubbs took them to 9 NCAA Tournaments in 14 seasons, including 4 #1 seeds and a National Title game. Sampson was there for 12 years and had a similar run, 11 tournaments 6 protected seeds, and a Final Four. Kruger was there for 10 seasons, 7 tournaments and a Final Four.
But there’s no doubt the program had begun to slip in the later stages of Krugers run. They made two tournaments with 13 losses (and subsequently another loss in the tourney). And Moser, to his credit or not, has mostly kept that momentum going. They’ve rarely been bad, but rarely been good either. Moser has kept them competitive, but at some point the administration and fan base had to figure out if they were going to compete or not. The last few years we’ve seen the Sooners step up and make more of a commitment, and the portal hauls have certainly reflected that.
Now it’s going to be up to Moser to get it done.
There’s just a remarkable consistency happening in Norman that I spoke to in the previous section. Under Lon Kruger, by many a very respected coach, things stagnated as the Administration and fan base expected to just let a good coach handle it. And these days, that’s not enough.
LOST PRODUCTION
3rd in % minutes, 61.60% | 3rd in % points, 61.27% | 3rd in
% possessions: 61.33%
Oklahoma heavily relied upon four players to do the bulk of their scoring last season, and two of them have moved on after graduating. Leading scorer Nijel Pack recovered his reputation as an elite shooter in his last year, which was his 6th season of college basketball. Tae Davis, a Notre Dame transfer, was the teams third leading scorer. He was seeking a 5th year through a court injunction, but seems to have fallen off the radar. Also gone is Mohamed Wague, he became a really reliable interior presence in his last season.
A season ago I thought the best under the radar addition in the transfer portal was St. Joe’s transfer Xzayvier Brown. He’s just so good with the ball in his hands. But it took him a little time to adjust to Moser and his system., but once he clicked in, Oklahoma was able to hit another gear. Retaining Brown and having him back as a fixture of the offense was vital to the offseason rebuild.
Dayton Forsythe wasn’t going anywhere, he’s an Oklahoma native and a lifer. But after a bumpy ride as a freshman in Tuscaloosa, Derrion Reid seems to have found a home in Norman. He was lightly used in Nate Oats system, but inserted as a starter right away and doubled his output. He also became a more dangerous outside threat after shooting just 26% from deep as a freshman. Reid’s combination of size and strength makes him a tough matchup on the wing.
But after a bumpy ride as a freshman in Tuscaloosa, Derrion Reid seems to have found a home in Norman.
The early portal haul was concerning, but perhaps there was no program who benefitted as much as OU from the extension of some 5th year players via a temporary restraining order. They had a couple mid-level 4-star wings in their freshman class, and they signed enigmatic forward Khani Rooths from Louisville. A 6’10 swing forward with a tantalizing skillset, Rooths is hoping he can see the same career reset Reid saw last season. He’s a Washington DC native who originally committed to Michigan before heading to Louisville when Juwan Howard was replaced. But he never found his footing playing for Pat Kelsey.
Moser also added a lightly used post from Oregon State named Yaak Yaak.
But it was the 5th years that saved things a big here starting when Pop Isaacs was cleared to play after spending last season at Texas A&M. Isaacs was a double digit scorer for Texas Tech, and at Creighton. But injuries sidelined him there, so he tried being a Buckyball early adopter and saw his production shrink with the style of play. Isaacs is a bucket getter though. And he’s joined in the backcourt by SMU transfer combo guard BJ Edwards.
Edwards was injured towards the end of the season, but SMU kept teasing his return which gave them one of the last NCAA Tournament berths. Edwards was key to their season as a do everything guard. He only scored around 12 points per game, but he just does so many good things. He defends well, he passes it well, he shoots it well. And the best part, he’s comfortable being a secondary option.
The last big addition was Duke Brennan, literally. Oklahoma was in need of some size and experience, and Brennan provides that. At Villanova last year he started every game, and averaged a double double.
With the late 5th year additions, Oklahoma’s ceiling just got a lot higher.
The only real question mark here is the 4-spot. It could be easy for Moser to go guard heavy, and use Derrion Reid as the 4. He’s got the size and strength to match up with most of the conference at that position, maybe not Florida, but most teams have trouble matching up with Florida’s size.
Khani Rooths could be ready for a breakout season. he’s always teased with his combination of size and athleticism. But he’s never been on the court long enough to make any real impact. The other option is if Kai Rogers is ready, he’s not the most athletic big man, but he’s big and has good feet and soft hands. Adding Brennan takes the pressure off whether Rooths or Rogers needs to produce, because Brennan will produce. Now those two will be put into a position where anything they give the team is a bonus.
What might be interesting is how Moser deploys Pop Isaacs, who is used to being a high usage guard, and isn’t afraid to try and generate offense. The team is clearly Xzayvier Brown’s to lead, and BJ Edwards seems fine playing off the ball, but how will Isaacs and Brown mesh when they’re on the floor together?
As usual, I’m not a big fan of Porter Moser’s scheduling. 8 Quad 4 matchups in Lloyd Noble, and the first four all sub 300 matchups, which has been about par for the course. Then the rest of the schedule features just one top 50 opponent, in a matchup with Purdue on the second day of the Fort Meyers tip-off. Of course after facing Pitt, who looks unlikely to be a tournament team this season. Syracuse, Arizona State, and Oklahoma State are all tournament hopefuls, but none are close to being safely in if you believe the preseason analytics. SMU barely made the tournament last year, and looks to be about in the same position again. The good news is they should win most, if not all of those games, which will look good for Wins Above Bubble. But it still leaves a lot of work for OU in conference play.
More good news? They’ll have plenty of work available based on their schedule. Including opening at home against Kentucky. The opener is an important game because the second game is at Florida. Having Texas and Missouri as your permanent rivals this year is going to be tough, but Georgia is a place you can win. Either way Oklahoma likely needs to find three wins of those six games. The other home games come against South Carolina, LSU and Mississippi State, who OU should expect to win all three. Kentucky, Tennessee, and Vanderbilt are opportunities. The more of the three they pick up the less work there is to do on the road. Really only Ole Miss provides a game OU feels they should win, provided preseason expectations hold. The rest of the road slate is tough.
THE RULING
Last season the Sooners fatal flaw was their front court. Mohamed Wague was a ball of energy, but he provided virtually nothing on offense, and overall the Sooners were 15th in the league in defensive rebounding rate. This year Duke Brennan fixes a lot of what plagued them a year ago. Brennan was the second best rebounder in the Big East last year, and he was just as good on the offensive end as he was on the defensive end. On top of his rebounding, he had a top 15 free throw rate in the country.
So provided his eligibility holds, Oklahoma should feel pretty good about their interior defense after getting abused at the rim for most of the year. Brennan also moves Kai Rogers, Khani Rooths, and Yaak Yaak down the pecking order. Porter Moser has done his best to remove the unknowns from his roster heading into the season.
They won’t be the deepest team in the league, but the top 6 should be able to hang with just about anyone.
Guard play still rules college basketball, and with Brown, Isaacs, and Edwards the Sooners have three really good guards. But it should still all start with Brown.
As a lead guard last season, Brown’s usage rate was only in the low 20s at 22.7%, but the offense went through him. Pack was largely ready at all times for a catch and shoot. But Brown was looking to get into the lane. 30% of his shots came at the rim, and he had a 19.1% assist rate, most of his assists came on dribble penetration. Brown’s overall production dipped from his play at St. Joe’s, but not by a lot. Can he be just a little bit better in year 4?
If he is, he’s also going to need an improvement from Derrion Reid. Moser has shored up his back court, and he’s landed the important big man, now he needs production from the wing, and that’s Reid.
The only other question is if the Sooners, one of the leagues best offenses last year, can restore some of their power defensively. Moser built good defensive teams while at Loyola Chicago, and early on in Norman. But last years team was leaky. It’s easy to point at their inability to grab initial rebounds, and a high rate of shots at the rim as a key. So maybe Brennan helps solve that problem as well. This could be a really good Sooners team.
My Results: Oklahoma Sooners — 10th in Conference, 9-9
About the preview: a number of respected basketball bloggers were asked to submit one pick for the entire league schedule game by game. The game by game option allows us to account for the unbalanced schedule when addressing any kind of power rankings. Each set of picks are reflected in “the Masses” picks. Included in “the Masses” are various SEC media members who made picks at my request, as well as additional credit given to the analytics projections, and national media outlet predictions.
Additionally, instead of relying solely on KenPom.com for the analytics site projections, we’re taking the average of the four main sites (EvanMiya.com, BartTorvik.com, Haslametrics.com, and KenPom.com) to give a closer consensus picture. These are weighted a touch for reliability.
The projections: In an attempt to be as accurate as we could be, we increased the amount of analytics used to make individual projections which influenced how these teams slotted in order. Matt Watkins used an in-depth method for projecting the entire SEC transfer list, we then mixed in EvanMiya.com’s BPR projections, and BartTorvik.com’s preseason individual projections to round out the expected production based upon how each coach routinely uses his rotations.
GLOSSARY
* – an asterisk denotes a walk-on player
GP – Games Played
%min – percentage of total available minutes played, does not account for time missed due to injury
%poss – percentage of team possessions the player is responsible for ending a possession, whether by making a shot, missing a shot not rebounded by the offense or committing a turnover. For returning players this is noted as a percentage of total team possessions. For newcomers it was total possessions when that player was on the floor, better known as Usage Rate.
ORtg – Offensive Rating, similar to a points per possession but averaged out over 100 possessions. So it’s how many points a player would score if they were responsible for 100 possessions.
BPR – Bayseian Performance Rating, a single player efficiency metric created by Evan Miyakawa to determine both offensive and defensive impact when a player is on the floor.
PAR – Points Above Replacement, a Rock M+ proprietary rating measuring projected on-off impact adjusted for time on the floor.
PPG – Points Per Game, RPG – Rebounds Per Game, APG – Assists Per Game: All traditional statistics used to measure player production.
<
p class=”wp-block-paragraph”>For newcomer player rankings, we used EvanMiya.com’ s rankings for transfers, and 247sports.com ‘s Composite Rating for Freshmen and Junior College signees.