For the third year in a row and fourth time in five seasons under Tommy Lloyd, Arizona has survived the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament. The Wildcats (34-2) have now reached the Sweet 16 on 22 occasions, which 10th-most in Division I history.
But the second weekend is more often than not when the season comes to an end for the UA. It has advanced to the Elite Eight 11 times, most recently in 2015, but gotten to the national semifinals on just four occasions and not since 2001, with the lone NCAA title coming in 1997 under Lute Olson.
Based on seeding, Arizona should have made gotten to the Final Four seven times, including in 2022 when it was a No. 1 seed in Lloyd’s first season. The Wildcats have turned a top seed into a Final Four appearance only once, in 1988, while the other three trips were as lower seeds including as a No. 4 in 1997.
The oddsmakers continue to be high on the UA. It is +330 to win the national title, per FanDuel Sportsbook, second only to Michigan (+300) and ahead of top overall seed Duke (+420). The Wildcats are -145 to reach the Final Four.
Is this the year? Below are why it will be and why it won’t:
Why it will
Defense and rebounding
Of the remaining 16 teams in the field, seven are ranked in the top eight in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom.com. Arizona is 3rd, at 90.1 points allowed per 100 possessions, and its .390 opponent field goal percentage is tied for second-best in the Sweet 16.
The other three teams in the West Regional each rank outside the top 200 nationally in field goal defense.
Arizona’s ability to win the rebounding battle has been a season-long trend, and in the NCAA tourney that’s gone up another level. It finished plus-21 against Long Island and then plus-28 against Utah State, including 22 offensive rebounds against the Aggies in the second round.
Motiejus Krivas and Koa Peat both had double-doubles against Utah State, while Ivan Kharchenkov had a double-double in the first round. And let’s not forgot Tobe Awaka, the Big 12 Sixth Man of the Year who leads the nation in offensive rebounding percentage despite coming off the bench.
Foul pressure
Arizona has the ability to get its opponents into foul trouble unlike anyone else in the country. The Wildcats draw just under 20 fouls per game, which leads to plenty of trips to the foul line.
And though the UA has had its share of games where it misses a few too many free throws, like in the second round when it was 27 of 39, the number it makes is usually more than the opponent gets to take. The Wildcats average 19.4 made free throws per game while allowing only 17 foul shots per contest.
The first game Arizona lost this season, by four at Kansas after a school-record 23-0 start, saw it only get to the line 14 times while the host Jayhawks took 25 foul shots. That was one of just six times this season the Wildcats’ opponent got more free throws.
Arizona gets 22.6 percent of its scoring while the clock is stopped. The only team left in the NCAA tourney who gets a higher percentage of its points at the line is Texas, which the UA could face in the Elite Eight.
The UA has made 700 free throws this season, three shy of the school record set by the 2000-01 team that lost to Duke in the NCAA final. It’s the first power conference team to make 700 foul shots in a season since 2014-15, when the Wildcats also hit that mark.
Shot selection
At 50 percent from the field, Arizona ranks 13th nationally and fourth among Sweet 16 teams. It’s opponent on Thursday, Arkansas, is 10th at 50.2 percent.
But no one still alive gets more of its points from inside the arc than the Wildcats, who have bucked the trend in college basketball to bomb from 3 by getting into the paint as much as possible. Arizona has taken 1,600 2-point shots, most in the country, and made 880. There are 202 Division I schools that didn’t make 880 total baskets including three teams that bowed out in the first round of the NCAA tourney.
Arizona’s 585 3-point attempts in 2025-26 is fewest of any team that made the tournament, which at many times this season prompted the question of whether it could make 3s if needed. Though the sample size is smaller than for other teams, it’s proven that it can.
The UA is 13 of 30 (43.3 percent) from 3 in the NCAA tourney, this after going 20 of 45 (44.4 percent) in the Big 12 Tournament. For the season the Wildcats are making 3s at a 36.4 percent clip, which is Top 50 nationally.
If Arizona finds itself in a situation where it has to take a lot of 3s, who knows if this accuracy will hold up, though it has shot 38.5 percent or better in nine of 15 games when its 3-point attempt rate was above 30 percent. Then again, the Wildcats have also shown that it can win against the best while barely connecting from outside.
In the season opener against defending NCAA champ Florida it took only five 3s, making two. It also only made two triples in a November win at UConn, then just three in knocking off reigning Big 12 champion Houston on the road last month.
The Closer
Jaden Bradley won Big 12 Player of the Year despite not having the kind of stats you’d expect from someone getting that award. Just ask BYU and Texas Tech fans.
But where Bradley lacks in raw numbers—he averages 13.3 points, 3.5 rebounds, 4.4 assists and 1.7 steals per game—he more than makes up for it in big moments.
Whenever Arizona needs a big basket late, its senior point guard is usually the one taking it. He hit the game winner against at UCLA in November, iced the win at UConn a few days later, prevented numerous road upsets in Big 12 play and also scored six in a row late against Utah State.
“If they’re going to win a national championship or get to the Final Four, in my opinion, Bradley’s going to get them there,” Utah State (now Cincinnati) coach Jerrod Calhoun said. “I really believe that.”
Why it won’t
Inability to handle pressure
Arizona never trailed against Utah State in the second round, but when the Aggies broke out a press in the second half the Wildcats’ lead quickly dipped from 18 to 4. They righted the ship down the stretch and pulled away, but it was just the latest instance of when an opponent bringing pressure in the backcourt caused problems.
This has been an issue all season for the UA, starting in the opener against Florida when it nearly blew a 9-point lead with 2:20 to go. A 19-point lead with 10:53 remaining at BYU was a 1-point game in the final seconds before Brayden Burries blocked a potential game-winning shot from behind. And plenty of other times the struggle to either inbound the ball or get it past the timeline have led to games that should be been over still having uncertainty.
The UA turns it over on 15.2 percent of possessions, which ranks 77th nationally but is only 10th-best among Sweet 16 teams.
Health
No team has avoided the injury bug this season, but when that happens and how hard it hits matters. Arizona went through a run in February where Peat missed 3-plus with a strained leg muscle and Dwayne Aristode was shelved for four with an illness, and at the same time Burries was so sick he got an IV in the locker room following a win over BYU and both he andBradley were well below 100 percent when winning at Houston.
That’s well in the past, and though Bradley has played the last 2-plus games with his left wrist and hand wrapped after injuring it against Houston in the Big 12 final, the Wildcats look to be as healthy as ever. But that can change with one bad step on the court.
Iowa State is dealing with that right now, as do-everything senior Joshua Jefferson hurt his ankle three minutes into the tourney and may not be available for the Sweet 16. Duke hasn’t had Caleb Foster the last five games because of a foot injury suffered in the regular season finale, and it just got Patrick Ngongba back after a 5-game absence.
Bad luck
If you know three Arizona fans you know at least two who can list half a dozen instances in the past 25 years where the Wildcats got unlucky in the NCAA Tournament. Jay Williamsrecently admitted he did foul Jason Gardner in the first half of the 2001 title game, one of the most blatant missed calls ever, and since then there’s been no shortage of times things didn’t go the UA’s way.
No need to cite any of the many others, you all experienced that pain in real time.