Michigan State basketball bracketology: From road bump to redemption

Tom Izzo picked up a marquee resume win for a 28th straight NCAA Tournament appearance.

Even after Michigan State basketball suffered a potentially crippling loss to its seeding three days earlier.

After getting tripped up on Wednesday at unranked Minnesota, a second straight loss that dealt a kick to their hopes of repeating as Big Ten champs, the 10th-ranked Spartans recovered with a thrilling overtime win at home over No. 6 Illinois on Saturday night. And Izzo’s quest for a 12th regular-season title, which would break a tie with Indiana’s Bob Knight and Purdue’s Ward “Piggy” Lambert, remains ongoing.

Michigan State's head coach Tom Izzo, left, talks with Jeremy Fears Jr. during the second half against Illinois on Saturday, Feb. 7, 2026, at the Breslin Center in East Lansing.

And to recover and do that, MSU (20-4, 10-3 Big Ten) will need to play like it did Friday against the Illini over the final seven games that features six teams with winning records in conference play. Each of those is vital to earning a double-bye in next month’s Big Ten Tournament and solidifying a top-4 seed come NCAA Selection Sunday on March 15.

Michigan State basketball schedule this week

Friday: at Wisconsin, 8 p.m., Fox.

Michigan State basketball bracketology for NCAA Tournament

NET rankings: No. 12 (Last week: No. 11)

All rankings entering Monday’s games.

Quad 1 record: 6-3

Quad 2 record: 4-1

Quad 3 record: 4-0

Quad 4 record: 6-0

KenPom rankings: No. 9 (Last week: No. 9)

All rankings entering Monday’s games.

Offensive efficiency: No. 42

Defensive efficiency: No. 4

Michigan State basketball bracketology projections

USA TODAY: 4-seed in West vs. North Dakota State (updated Feb. 6).

The Athletic: 3-seed in Midwest vs. Wright State (updated Feb. 3).

ESPN: 4-seed in East vs. Troy (updated Feb. 6).

CBS: 3-seed in Midwest vs. Harvard (updated Feb. 8).

Fox Sports: 3-seed in West vs. Harvard (updated Feb. 6).

On3: 3-seed in South vs. ETSU (updated Feb. 8).

Bracket Matrix: 3-seed (updated Feb. 8).

Michigan State basketball results last week

Cam Ward of the Michigan State Spartans reacts to his foul against the Minnesota Golden Gophers in the first half at Williams Arena on Feb. 4, 2026, in Minneapolis.

Feb. 4: 76-73 loss at Minnesota – The Spartans fell behind early, rallied and then to No. 2 Michigan on Jan. 30, then followed the same pattern Wednesday, falling behind bu 16 points with 4:08 to play. But the Spartans fought back and cut it to two points with 19.6 seconds left on Trey Fort’s fourth 3-pointer before succumbing to the Gophers. Coen Carr scored all 16 of his points in the second half, while freshman Jordan Scott scored a career high 15 points in his first start. However, the spotlight was on back-to-back Big Ten player of the week Jeremy Fears Jr., who had 10 points and 11 assists but also received a technical foul for kicking Minnesota’s Langston Reynolds in the groin. MSU also lost guard Divine Ugochukwu to a broken foot during the game; he will miss the rest of the season.

Michigan State's Coen Carr, left, dunks against Illinois during the second half on Saturday, Feb. 7, 2026, at the Breslin Center in East Lansing.

Feb. 7: 85-82 OT win at home vs. No. 6 Illinois – Again, the Spartans found themselves trailing by nine points early in the second half. But Fears delivered another epic comeback, scoring 22 of his 26 points after halftime, including 11 of MSU’s 14 points in overtime, and had 15 assists. Kur Teng hit a 3-pointer late in regulation, but Illinois tied it in the final second of regulation. Jaxon Kohler had 11 points and 16 rebounds, while Scott and Teng each scored 10 to end the Spartans’ two-game losing streak.

How NCAA tournament committee selects at-large teams

Record: The team’s overall record, conference record, and non-conference record

Strength of schedule: The strength of the teams the team played against

Head-to-head results: The results of games between the teams being compared

Conference championships: The number of conference championships won

Common opponents: The results of games against common opponents

Adjusted Net Efficiency (NET): A measure of a team’s overall performance during the regular season

Team Value Index: A results-oriented component of the NET that ranks teams based on who they beat and where they played

Rating Percentage Index (RPI): A computer program that calculates a team’s winning percentage, opponents’ success, and opponents’ strength of schedule

Contact Chris Solari: csolari@freepress.com. Follow him @chrissolari.

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This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Michigan State basketball bracketology seed, projections