BUFFALO, NY — The same, but different.
At first glance in the 2026 NCAA Tournament Midwest region’s second round, Michigan basketball and Saint Louis have a lot of similarities.
Both teams value free flowing offense, prioritize analytics and emphasize field goal efficiency on both ends. Then again, the Wolverines start three players 6-foot-9 or taller. The Billikens? Just one.
As Michigan basketball coach Dusty May said Friday, March 20 after his team’s practice at KeyBank Center, it’s different ingredients that combine for a similar resylt.
“I think when you hunt the shot profile, shot diet both of us are and have the pieces to make it happen, you end up getting high-percentage shots at the rim,” he said. “You get catch-and-shoot 3s, you end up with a high assist rate, end up with very good transition numbers.
“Personnel dictates a little bit of it, but equate it to sausage. At the end, the sausage tastes very similar, but the way it’s made is different because of our ingredients.”
The Billikens’ key ingredient is 6-foot-10 center Robbie Avila. Amid a bevy of nicknames, he’s known as “College Jokic” for his under-the-rim style of play, the hub of an offense as the Billikens’ attack runs through him at the top of the arc.
The Wolverines are familiar with him, but perhaps none moreso than Morez Johnson Jr., who grew up in Riverdale, Illinois, a Chicago suburb roughly 30 miles from Avila’s Chicagoland home of Oak Park. The two both played for the “MeanStreets” EYBL team. Avila’s two years older than Johnson, so they weren’t teammates – But they go back nearly seven years.
Johnson said his teams would “rush out of our games” to watch the 17-U team which included Avila, and other future Division I players such as Ty Rodgers (Illinois), Kam Craft (Georgia Tech), Nick Martinelli (Northwestern) and Jalen Washington (Vanderbilt).
“I’ve known him since I was probably an eighth-grader,” Johnson said. “Of course [I look forward to playing him]. I’m always looking for us to send my friends home.”
Of course, Saint Louis is more than just one player. The Billikens are the nation’s No. 2 3-point shooting team at 40.5%, thanks to four players shooting better than 41% on 3s, all at high volume. As lead guard Amari McCottry explained, it’s all part of a philosophy to take what the defense gives them. Whichever way the opponent adjusts, Saint Louis is happy to take the alternative.
“Our offense is just all guys are activated, so you know they’re taking away, [they] have to play something,” he said.“ [The opponent] has to play something. You know, so if they take away the three, we have lanes. If they take away the lanes and flood on drives, we got shooters.”
If anything, the Wolverines say their matchup with the Billikens will feel something like a practice, featuing dueling offenses that use their centers as “hubs” as May likes to say. Michigan knows what it’s like to guard a team that doesn’t have one singular option.
Michigan has seven players who average 8-14.4 points per game. Saint Louis has eight players who average 9-13 a night. That’s why physicality on catches, length in the passing lanes and perhaps finding a wrinkle or two that Saint Louis might not expect could be the difference.
“Very similar to the way we play… the offense’s part of it,“ Roddy Gayle Jr. said. “It’s kind of like a self-scout. I mean we play each other all day, every day [at practice], so understanding things they like to do.
“Just being able to confuse some of their stuff and being able to get good looks on offense.”
Yaxel Lendeborg is the Big Ten player of the year, but the key for Michigan might be Aday Mara against Saint Louis. The 7-foot-3 Spaniard’s length is the one thing Saint Louis has not really seen this year.
Lendeborg and Johnson both spoke about the way Mara affects their offensive game when he’s matched up with them on the perimeter. It’s an area Mara has worked at, particularly after the Wolverines’ struggles with teams featuring stretch fives – like the Billikens.
Lendeborg equated Saint Louis’ passing to Nebraska’s and its spacing to Wisconsin’s, two teams that gave U-M all it could handle this season. Mara has grown from those matchups and feels he will be ready for the task. In U-M’s win against Howard on Thursday, he was often out of place, but explained it was from a lack of team communication and positional understanding. The Wolverines have rules in place for when there are switches on ball screens for guards vs. bigs, but the Bison were essentially five guards.
So when Avila gets the ball at the top of the arc, which he certainly will, Mara has a plan.
“We have to press the ball,” he said. “We have to make him be uncomfortable. As I said, his game is simliar to mine and I struggle when they pressure me, so I’m going to try to do the same to him.”
Michigan vs Saint Louis NCAA Tournament prediction
Michigan got its offensive mojo back, scoring 100 points in a game for the first time since December. Of course, Saint Louis also broke the century mark in its opener. The Wolverines have their hands full with the nation’s top defense and the No. 2 offense in field goal efficiency. The Billikens are balanced and won’t be spooked by the matchup. Still, U-M has enough talent to escape what will be a tighter game than fans want. The pick: U-M 83, Saint Louis 74.
Tony Garcia is the Michigan beat writer for the Detroit Free Press. Email him at apgarcia@freepress.com and follow him on X at @RealTonyGarcia.
This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Michigan basketball readies for ‘similar’ Saint Louis squad