I changed my approach this year, even though I had a really good 2025:
- 47-16 overall record
- 3 of 4 Final Four teams, including the National Champ
- 7 of the Elite 8 teams
- 11 of the Sweet 16
However, I went a little crazier with the upsets than I should have in this new era of NIL and the portal and changing rosters. Of the nine upsets I picked (including 9s over 8s), I missed five of them. I also picked Clemson over McNeese in what should have been a gimme 12-over-5.
So, for 2026, I have …
- Taken every 9 over 8
- Three of four 10s over 7s
- Three of four 11s over 6s
- Only one upset from 5/12 down
- Only three seeds lower than a 4 making the second weekend, all of which are 5 seeds.
You can check out my thinking about those games in our SB Nation March Madness feed (individual links above). I will be there to answer your questions and give you advice tonight and tomorrow from 5 to 8 Eastern and on Thursday morning from 9 to noon Eastern, when brackets lock.
For now, here are my picks, starting with the left side of the bracket. Upsets are in bold.
East
First Round
Duke
TCU
St. John’s
Kansas
South Florida
Michigan State
UCF
UConn
Second Round
Duke
St. John’s
Michigan State
UConn
Sweet 16
Duke
Michigan State
Elite 8
Duke
South
First Four
Lehigh
First Round
Florida
Iowa
Vanderbilt
Nebraska
VCU
Illinois
Saint Mary’s
Houston
Second Round
Florida
Vanderbilt
Illinois
Houston
Sweet 16
Florida
Houston
Elite 8
Houston
Moving to the right side …
West
First Four
NC State
First Round
Arizona
Utah State
High Point
Arkansas
BYU
Gonzaga
Missouri
Purdue
Second Round
Arizona
Arkansas
Gonzaga
Purdue
Sweet 16
Arizona
Purdue
Elite 8
Arizona
Midwest
First Four
Howard
Miami (Ohio)
First Round
Michigan
Saint Louis
Texas Tech
Alabama
Miami (Ohio)
Virginia
Santa Clara
Iowa State
Second Round
Michigan
Texas Tech
Virginia
Iowa State
Sweet 16
Michigan
Iowa State
Elite 8
Iowa State
Final Four
Duke over Houston
Arizona over Iowa State
National Championship
Arizona over Duke