The bracket is mostly unchanged since Monday’s. I have not had the time to do a full scrub since Friday, so there may be changes in tomorrow’s field—particularly with there being some games of interest tonight. More on those after the full bracket and rundown.
NOTES:
- Changes since Monday’s projection are noted with (★) for new entrants, (▲) for teams moving up one or more seed lines, and (▼) for teams moving down one or more seed lines.
- Teams that have clinched auto bids are in ALL CAPS BOLD.
- The highest-remaining seed in an active conference tournament holds its auto bid.
(1) East (Washington, D.C., Fri./Sun.)
Greenville (Thurs./Sat.)
(1) Duke (ACC)
(16) UMBC (AE)
(8) Kentucky
(9) TCU
San Diego (Fri./Sun.)
(5) Texas Tech
(12) NORTHERN IOWA (MVC)
(4) Vanderbilt
(13) Hofstra (CAA)
St. Louis (Fri./Sun.)
(6) Wisconsin
(11) Missouri
(3) Iowa State
(14) NORTH DAKOTA STATE (Summit)
St. Louis (Fri./Sun.)
(7) Utah State (MW)
(10) Santa Clara
(2) Illinois
★(15) FURMAN (SoCon)
(4) South (Houston, Thurs./Sat.)
Tampa (Fri./Sun.)
(1) Florida (SEC)
(16) LIU (NEC)/Howard (MEAC)
(8) Saint Louis (A 10)
(9) Iowa
Portland (Thurs./Sat.)
(5) North Carolina
(12) HIGH POINT (Big South)
(4) Kansas
(13) Utah Valley (WAC)
Philadelphia (Fri./Sun.)
(6) Tennessee
(11) SMU/New Mexico
(3) Purdue
(14) Wright State (Horizon)
Philadelphia (Fri./Sun.)
(7) Miami (Fla.)
(10) Ohio State
(2) UConn
(15) TENNESSEE STATE (OVC)
(2) Midwest (Chicago, Fri./Sun.)
Buffalo (Thurs./Sat.)
(1) Michigan (Big Ten)
(16) Bethune-Cookman (SWAC)/Lehigh (Patriot)
(8) Clemson
(9) Texas A&M
Tampa (Fri./Sun.)
(5) St. John’s (Big East)
(12) Yale (Ivy)
(4) Alabama
(13) Stephen F. Austin (Southland)
Oklahoma City (Thurs./Sat.)
(6) Louisville
(11) Texas/VCU
(3) Nebraska
(14) TROY (Sun Belt)
Oklahoma City (Thurs./Sat.)
(7) Saint Mary’s
(10) NC State
(2) Houston
(15) Portland State (Big Sky)
(3) West (San José, Thurs./Sat.)
San Diego (Fri./Sun.)
(1) Arizona (Big 12)
(16) QUEENS (ASUN)
(8) Georgia
(9) UCLA
Greenville (Thurs./Sat.)
(5) Arkansas
(12) South Florida (American)
(4) Virginia
(13) Liberty (CUSA)
Portland (Thurs./Sat.)
(6) BYU
(11) Miami (Ohio) (MAC)
(3) Gonzaga (WCC)
(14) UC Irvine (Big West)
Buffalo (Thurs./Sat.)
(7) Villanova
(10) UCF
(2) Michigan State
(15) Merrimack (MAAC)
Rundown
Last Four Byes: NC State, UCF, Santa Clara, Missouri
Last Four IN: Texas, SMU, VCU, New Mexico
First Four OUT: Virginia Tech, San Diego State, Auburn, Indiana
Next Four Out: Stanford, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Seton Hall
On Deck: Cal, Tulsa, USC Boise State
ARRIVALS (1): Furman (SoCon)
DEPARTURES: ETSU (SoCon)
Conference Breakdown
SEC (10): Florida (auto bid), Alabama, Vanderbilt, Arkansas, Tennessee, Kentucky, Georgia, Texas A&M, Missouri, Texas (First Four)
Big Ten (9): Michigan (auto bid), Illinois, Michigan State, Purdue, Nebraska, Wisconsin, UCLA, Iowa, Ohio State
ACC (8): Duke (auto bid), Virginia, North Carolina, Louisville, Miami (Fla.), Clemson, NC State, SMU (First Four)
Big 12 (8): Arizona (auto bid), Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Texas Tech, BYU, TCU, UCF
Big East (3): UConn, St. John’s (auto bid), Villanova
WCC (3): Gonzaga (auto bid), Saint Mary’s, Santa Clara
Atlantic 10 (2): Saint Louis (auto bid), VCU (First Four)
MW (2): Utah State (auto bid), New Mexico (First Four)
23 one-bid conferences
Tuesday’s Games To Watch
- All times are p.m. Eastern.
- Tip times for games marked with an asterisk (*) are approximate.
Championships (5)
Coastal Athletic
(4) Monmouth (19-14, 11-7) vs. (3) Hofstra (23-10, 12-6), 7 (CBSSN)
The winner will end an NCAA drought of 20 (Monmouth) or 25 (Hofstra) years. The Hawks had a couple of good at-large cases in 2016 and 2017, while the Pride won the ill-fated 2020 CAA Tournament.
Horizon League
(3) Detroit Mercy (17-14, 12-8) vs. (1) Wright State (22-11, 15-5), 7 (ESPN)
The Raiders last qualified in 2022, when they were sent to the First Four, while the Titans earned a 15 seed in their last trip in 2012.
NEC
(3) Mercyhurst(17-16, 10-8) at (1) LIU (23-10, 15-3), 7 (ESPN2)
There’s no drama in terms of the bid here, as the Lakers are reclassifying and ineligible. The Sharks last qualified in 2013—the third year in a row the then-LIU Brooklyn Blackbirds reached the field.
West Coast
(3) Santa Clara (26-7, 15-3) vs. (1) Gonzaga (29-3, 16-2), 9 (ESPN)
While the Bulldogs are playing for a top 4 national seed, the Broncos will secure their first NCAA appearance in 30 years with a win. I think Herb Sendek’s team has done enough though.
Metro Atlantic
(3) Siena (22-11, 13-7) vs. (1) Merrimack (23-10, 17-3), 9 (ESPN2)
The Saints last qualified in 2010. Merrimack won the 2023 NEC Tournament while they were still reclassifying. The runner-up that year, Fairleigh Dickinson, famously became the second 16 seed to beat a No. 1 (Purdue)—after beating Texas Southern in Dayton!
Other Single-Bid Conference Tournament Action
America East Semifinals
(4) UMass Lowell (15-17, 9-7) at (1) UMBC (22-8, 14-2), 6 p.m. (ESPN+ ($))
(3) NJIT (16-16, 10-6) at (2) Vermont (21-11, 12-4), 7 p.m. (ESPN+ ($))
The winners meet on Saturday morning at 11 to settle matters.
Southland Semifinals
(4) Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (18-14, 13-9) vs. (1) Stephen F. Austin (27-4, 20-2), 7 (ESPNU)
(3) UTRGV (19-13, 14-8) at (2) McNeese (26-5, 19-3), 9:30* (ESPN+ ($))
Note that this tournament is played in McNeese’s home arena. The final is tomorrow afternoon at 5.
Big Sky Semifinals
(4) Montana (17-15, 10-8) vs. (1) Portland State (20-10, 13-5), 9 (ESPNU)
(7) Idaho (19-14, 9-9) vs. (3) Eastern Washington (14-18, 11-7), 11:30* (ESPN2)
The defending champs take on the No. 1 seed in the first semifinal. The winners will play tommorow night at 11:30 in Boise.
Conference USA First Round
(9) Missouri State (14-17, 8-12) vs. (8) FIU (15-16, 8-12), 6:30 (ESPN+ ($))
(10) New Mexico State (15-15, 8-12) vs. (7) Jacksonville State (15-16, 10-10), 9* (ESPN+ ($))
CUSA expanded to 12 teams, but only the top 10 qualified. Teams 7 through 10 play tonight for the right to meet the No. 1 and 2 seeds in Wednesday’s first quarterfinal doubleheader in Huntsville, Ala.
SWAC Second Round
(11) Alcorn State (9-22, 7-11) vs. (8) Prairie View A&M (14-17, 9-9), 2 (ESPN+ ($))
(9) Grambling State (14-18, 7-11) vs. (7) Jackson State (11-20, 10-8), 8:30 (ESPN+ ($))
The Braves and Grambling Tigers won on Monday. Today’s winners will play again tomorrow against the top two seeds in the first quarterfinal set in Atlanta.
Multi-Bid Conference Tournament Openers
ACC First Round
(15) Pitt (12-19, 5-13) vs. (10) Stanford (20-11, 9-9), 2 (ACCN)
(14) Syracuse (15-16, 6-12) vs. (11) SMU (19-12, 8-10), 4:30* (ACCN)
(13) Wake Forest (16-15, 7-11) vs. (12) Virginia Tech (19-12, 8-10), 7* (ACCN)
All three of these games have bubble impact. The Cardinal and Hokies cannot afford losses. Stanford would meet NC State and Clemson is waiting for Virginia Tech with wins. Those are huge opportunities for both teams to get closer (or over the Cut Line). The Mustangs also cannot lose to the Orange for a second time. They would get Louisville with a win.
Big 12 First Round
(13) Baylor (16-15, 6-12) vs. (12) Arizona State (16-15, 7-11), 12:30 (ESPN+ ($))
(16) Utah (10-21, 2-16) vs. (9) Cincinnati (17-14, 9-9), 3* (ESPN+ ($))
(15) Kansas State (12-19, 3-15) vs. (10) BYU (21-10, 9-9), 7 (ESPN+ ($))
(14) Oklahoma State (18-13, 6-12) vs. (11) Colorado (17-14, 7-11), 9:30* (ESPN+ ($))
The Bearcats have the most to gain today, and though they, the Cowboys, Buffaloes, and Sun Devils really need multiple wins to break through. As for the 10th-seeded Cougars, a loss would likely see them drop a seed line.
Big Ten First Round
(17) Maryland (11-20, 4-16) vs. (16) Oregon (12-19, 5-15), 5 (Peacock ($)/NBCSN)
(18) Penn State (12-19, 3-17) vs. (15) Northwestern (13-18, 5-15), 7:30* (Peacock ($)/NBCSN)
Don’t even bother.