Game Info
When | 9:10 p.m. CT
Where | Enterprise Arena; Columbia, MO
TV | TruTV
Radio | Tiger Radio Network
Twitter | @MizzouHoops
ESPN win probability | 44.9% chance
The Starters
Mizzou (20-12, 10-8 SEC)
G: T.O. Barrett (SO, 8.9 PPG)
G: Jayden Stone (GR, 13.2 PPG)
F: Trent Pierce (JR, 10.6 PPG)
F: Mark Mitchell (SR, 18.3 PPG)
C: Shawn Phillips Jr. (SR, 7.7 PPG)
Notable Sixth Man: Anthony Robinson II (JR, 8.8 PPG)
Miami (25-8, 13-5 ACC)
F: Malik Reneau (SR, 18.8 PPG)
F: Shelton Henderson (FR, 13.7 PPG)
C: Ernest Udeh Jr. (SR, 6.9 PPG)
G: Dante Allen (FR, 6.4 PPG)
G: Tre Donaldson (SR, 16.5 PPG)
Notable Sixth Man: Tru Washington (JR, 12.1 PPG)
Note: these starting lineups are projected.
Get to know the Miami Hurricanes: a team looking to create a storm in its first berth since 2023
Oh boy, do we have a lot to unpack heading into Friday night’s matchup.
In 2023, the last time the Hurricanes made a March Madness appearance, Miami worked all the way to it’s first ever Final Four. Since then, it’d been a rough ride for the Canes. After the highs of the NCAA tournament they quickly rolled back down the hill and secured the worst record in program history last season.
However, first year Head Coach Jai Lucas has transformed the Canes once again to bring them back to the greatest tournament in college sports. By transform, I’m talking complete rebuild. Arkansas type rebuild. No players from the Miami team last year returned so Lucas had big shoes to fill in year one. But first how did Lucas get to Miami?
“After a college playing career under Rick Barnes, he took a job at Texas under Barnes. Shaka Smart kept him around, apparently recognizing his potential, and from there he went to Kentucky under John Calipari, and then to Duke under Jon Scheyer. Barnes, Smart, Calipari, and Scheyer is a unique blend of coaches to work under. And Lucas sprung those 10 seasons as an assistant into the Miami job.”
A pretty good resume if I can say so myself. Quick tidbit, Lucas coached Mitchell when he was at Duke. Also on his staff is Charlton “C.Y.” Young. Yes, the same C.Y. who served as an associate head coach on Gates’ staff at Mizzou over the last three years. Phew, talk about a game that will hold meaning on both sides.
Ok Rory, thanks for filling us in on the staff, but maybe we should focus on the players who will be on the court?
Leading the Canes on the floor is Malik Reneau who averages 18.8 points per game. He’s pretty lethal from anywhere on the floor. He sits fourth on his team hitting 54.9 percent of his field goals while knocking down 35.3 percent of his three’s. Before transferring to Miami, he spent his last three seasons at Indiana (this seems like a football tragedy for him).
Three more players who find themselves with a double digit average are Tre Donaldson, Shelton Henderson and Tru Washington. Donaldson, who has spent his career at both Auburn and Michigan, is next in line with 16.5 points per game. At the start of ACC play, the guard was hailed for his heroics to keep the team undefeated to start play. Henderson, a freshman from Texas, logs just under 14 points a game and nabs about 5 rebounds off the glass each game. Washington, the sixth man of the team, sits second on the Canes with at least 10 games played with a beyond the arc shooting percentage of 36.5 percent helping him to 12 points a game.
Also among the starters is Ernest Udeh Jr., a senior from Florida with 6.9 points per game, but the almost seven-footer excels on the glass. With 9.4 rebounds a game, his average was third-best across the ACC, sitting only behind Cameron Boozer and Caleb Wilson. Rounding out the group is freshman Dante Allen. Hitting 6.4 points a game, the guard is second-best on the team with 5.8 assists a game as well.
As an offense, the Canes average 81.9 points per game while allowing its opponents to only manage about 71.2. According to KenPom, they sit at 33rd in offensive rating and 38th on the defensive side of things.
Over the course of the season, they tallied a 6-6 record in Quad 1 with wins over Louisville, North Carolina and NC State. It’s also key to point out that they never faced Duke and two of those losses were against Virginia. In Quad 2, the Canes went 6-2 and 13-0 over Quad 3 and 4.
Three Keys to the Game
Win the Glass
These two teams play a really similar style of basketball. Lots of success in the paint, not too many three points attempted and rough times at the charity stripe.
As a paint heavy team to rack up the points, you can be sure they look to grab boards as well. The Canes finished second in its conference in offensive rebounding and they will look to separate themselves early in that metric. If the Tigers can’t keep up on the glass, the chances of victory will tick away as does the minutes.
Now, if Mizzou can knock down outside shots and stretch Miami’s defense, it may neutralize the greater threats of the Cane’s game. However, if it turns into a game of second chance points, it will be all Miami.
All year I’ve liked to drop the term ‘you can’t teach height’. Time to show everyone why team’s were scared of that side of Mizzou.
Stop Turning the Ball Over. I Beg.
Man, has it been a killer as of late. It’s easy to slip into the would’ve, could’ve, should’ve with Mizzou, especially after the SEC tournament game against the Kentucky Wildcats.
The big blue were able to capture 17 points off Mizzou’s 15 turnovers. Gates was quick to note in the postgame presser that they gifted its opponents points in the paint off the turnovers. As a team, Mizzou averaged 12.4 turnovers a game to lead the entire SEC.
Clearly, this is something that the Canes will look to take full advantage of on Friday night. If Mizzou doesn’t protect the basketball, Miami wins the possession battle.
Mark Freakin’ Mitchell
Mark Mitchell has poured his heart and soul into Missouri Tigers basketball and the trials and tribulation of Mizzou basketball hasn’t always loved him back. In his last two games, the guard dropped 32 points a piece against SEC foes Arkansas and Kentucky. That Mitchell will need to be present against the Miami Hurricanes.
He’ll be key on the glass, dominating the paint and even dropping a three every now and again. His ability to attack and create offense when shots aren’t falling has been a reason the Tigers have stuck around in games they had no business coming back in.
His prowess will be crucial in keeping the Tiger offense stay balanced and composed in a high-paced, stressful environment.
Game Prediction
Final Score: Mizzou 77 – Miami 72
The last thing I wanted to bring up over the course of this article was the record of Gates in March. While the team has had three berths to the NCAA tournament in Gates’ four yars, they’ve only picked up one win.
However, it’s time for a change, right?
The last time these two teams faced off in this tournament was in 2002 when the 12-seed Tigers took down a 5-seed Canes by a score of 93-80. So, another potential upset in the books huh. Now, according to the ESPN Tournament Challenge, since 1985, No. 7 seeds have won 61.3% of meetings with No.10 seeds. Last year was the first time multiple 10-seeds came away with a victory since 2021.
For the naysayers looking at Mizzou’s season closing with three straight losses, I raise you that they play better basketball as an underdog. They love to prove people wrong and you must have all the hope in the world that it translates Friday night as well.
To win, Mizzou just needs to play its own game and its best level. These two teams have a very similar style of play and it could come down to who protects the ball more. Plus, what better way to find your groove when you’re playing with home court advantage. Perhaps the best key to a win is having the Tiger faithful within a two-hour drive for a first round game. The black and gold fans will be out in droves pushing Gates and crew to the best version of itself.
In March, there’s no way to predict what will happen next. That’s the beauty of this tournament. However, I believe Mizzou walks away the victors.