March Madness upset predictions 2026: Which 13 seed is most likely to win in first round? originally appeared on The Sporting News.
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All four No. 13 seeds face double-digit spreads in the first round of the 2025-26 NCAA Basketball Tournament – making for long odds for a potential upset.
No. 13 Cal Baptist (25-8) faces No. 4 Kansas (23-10) in the East Region. No. 13 Hawai'i (24-8) faces No. 4 Arkansas (26-8) in the West Region. No. 13 Hofstra (24-10) meets No. 4 Alabama (23-9) in the Midwest Region, and No. 13 Troy (22-11) takes on No. 4 Nebraska (26-6) in the South Region.
MARCH MADNESS HQ:Live NCAA bracket | TV schedule | Printable bracket
The No. 13 seed is 33-127 in the first round — a winning percentage of .206. A total of six No. 13 seeds have reached the Sweet 16, but we have yet to see at No. 13 break through to the Final Four. Furman (2023) and Yale (2024) have won as No. 13 seeds in recent seasons.
SN EXPERT BRACKETS:DeCourcy (Arizona) | Bender (Michigan) | Iyer (Arizona) | Gay (UCLA women)
(Odds according to Caesars)
March Madness upset predictions 2026
No. 13 Cal Baptist vs. No. 4 Kansas (-14.5)
Odds: Kansas -14.5
Why this can happen: The Lancers have worked their way up from Division II and are making their first tournament appearance, and they have won six in a row. That included a 63-61 victory against Utah Valley in the WAC championship game. Cal Baptist is led by four senior guards, including leading scorer Dominique Daniels, who averaged 23.2 points per game. He had 41 points in the WAC semifinal against Utah Tech, and now has the opportunity to show out against projected first-round pick Darryn Peterson.
No. 13 Troy vs. No. 4 Nebraska (-13)
Odds: Nebraska -13
Why this can happen: Troy has won back-to-back Sun Belt tournament championships under coach Scott Cross, and forward Thomas Dowd averages 14.8 points and 10.1 rebounds per game. The Trojans have four players who average double figures, which could present some issues for Nebraska up front. The Huskers are balanced too, so Troy will have to be good against the 3-point line on both sides. It's a tough matchup, so Dowd will have to be at his best for Troy to keep this one close.
IN-DEPTH REGION BREAKDOWNS: East | West | Midwest | South
No. 13 Hawai'i vs. No. 4 Arkansas (-15)
Odds: Arkansas -15
Why this can happen: The Warriors are balanced, and that starts with 7-foot center Isaac Johnson, who averages 14.1 points and 5.8 rebounds per game. He stands out and will be a challenge for Arkansas' front line. Hawaii has five seniors, and they played Oregon and Arizona State close in non-conference play. Arkansas is a different challenge with SEC Player of the Year Darius Acuff, who averages 22.7 points per game. The Warriors do rank in the top 25 in free-throw attempts at 25.1 per game, so that is something to monitor if they are hanging around in the second half.
No. 13 Hofstra vs. No. 4 Alabama (-14)
Odds: Alabama -14
Why this can happen: How will Hofstra slow down the nation's top scoring offense? The Pride are back in the tournament for the first time since 2000-01 under coach Speedy Claxton, a former NBA guard who played for Jay Wright. Cruz Davis leads Hofstra (20.2 ppg.) on offense, and they rank in the top 20 in scoring defense at 66.1 points per game. The key will be limiting Alabama's possessions, especially in the first half. Hofstra did beat Syracuse 70-69 on Dec. 13, but this is a different challenge.
SN AWARDS: All-America team | Boozer Player of the Year | Lloyd Coach of the Year
Which 13 seed is the best bet for an upset?
Based on those spreads, those No. 13 seeds will not be popular upset picks. Last year, No. 13 seeds lost by an average of 20.3 points per game.
HISTORY OF UPSETS BY SEED:
16 vs. 1 | 15 vs. 2 | 14 vs. 3 | 13 vs. 4 | 12 vs. 5
John Calipari had a couple notable first-round losses at Kentucky, but the Razorbacks are playing some of their best basketball of the season. It's great to have Hofstra in the tournament, but Alabama did not lose to an unranked team in non-conference play this season. Cal Baptist ranked seventh in the nation in three-point defense (29.6%), so it could get interesting if the Jayhawks have an off-night from that range.
The best bet is probably Troy with the combination of tournament experience and the fact the Huskers were 4-3 in their last seven games. Nebraska scored less than 60 points in those losses, and there is the pressure of trying to win the first tournament game in school history. It's still a long-shot, however, and they would have to score close to their season average of 80.3 points per game to have a chance. Dowd was held scoreless with 11 rebounds in a 76-57 loss to Kentucky in the tournament last season. What will he do with a second chance?