March Madness upset predictions 2026: Which 12 seed is most likely to win in first round? originally appeared on The Sporting News.
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Everybody loves the 5-12 upset pick, and with good reason.
That line is always good for a possible upset. Last year, there were two No. 12 seeds who won in the first round in Colorado State and McNeese.
Guess who is back? No. 12 McNeese (28-5) takes on No. 5 Vanderbilt (26-8) in the South Region. No. 12 Northern Iowa (23-12) takes on No. 5 St. John's (26-6) in the East Region. No. 12 High Point (30-4) takes on No. 5 Wisconsin (24-10) in the West Region, and No. 12 Akron (29-5) takes on No. 5 Texas Tech (22-10) in the Midwest Region.
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The No. 12 seed is 57-103 in the first round — a winning percentage of .356. A total of 22 teams seeded No. 12 have made the Sweet 16 since 1985. Here is a closer look at the matchups.
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(Odds courtesy of Caesars)
March Madness upset predictions 2026
No. 12 Northern Iowa vs. No. 5 St. John's
Odds: St. John's -11.5
Why this can happen: Northern Iowa has done it before, right? The Panthers lead the nation in scoring defense (61.3 ppg.) and won the Missouri Valley Conference tournament, and they have had a week of rest. Ben Jacobson has led the Panthers to five tournament appearances, and Trey Campbell is a high-scoring game who averaged 17.8 points per game in the MVC tournament. St. John's is not a huge team, but Zuby Ejiofor (16.3 ppg.) and Bryce Hopkins (13.5 ppg.) are an imposing front court.
IN-DEPTH REGION BREAKDOWNS: East | West | Midwest | South
No. 12 McNeese vs. No. 5 Vanderbilt
Odds: Vanderbilt -11.5
Why this can happen: Will the Cowboys take over the first weekend again? McNeese leads the nation in turnover margin and they are on a 10-game winning streak. Coach Bill Armstrong picked up where Will Wade left off, and Larry Johnson scores 17.5 points per game. Vanderbilt guards Tyler Tanner (19.2 ppg.) and Duke Miles (16.4 ppg.) will be a challenge to stop, and they will be reminded about what happened to Clemson last year.
No. 12 High Point vs. No. 5 Wisconsin
Odds: Wisconsin -10
Why this can happen: High Point ranked fourth in the nation with 90 points per game. The Panthers are a transfer portal creation that includes Kentucky transfer Cam'Ron Fletcher (12.7 ppg.) and Arizona transfer Conrad Martinez (9.3 ppg.). Forward Terry Anderson (16.0 ppg.) and Rob Martin (15.3 ppg.) are high scorers, too. High Point is third in the nation in fast-break points per game (18.8), so they will not be afraid to get in a run-and-gun game with Wisconsin, a team that averages 83 points per game. Can the Panthers do it for 40 minutes?
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No. 12 Akron vs. No. 5 Texas Tech
Odds: -7.5
Why this can happen: This could end up being the most popular pick because Texas Tech lost its last three games and will not have star forward JT Toppin for the NCAA tournament. Akron features guard Tavari Johnson (20.1 ppg.) and a veteran cast that has been in the tournament. Coach John Groce has the right mix here; one that was overshadowed by Miami in the regular season.
HISTORY OF UPSETS BY SEED:
16 vs. 1 | 15 vs. 2 | 14 vs. 3 | 13 vs. 4 | 12 vs. 5
Which 12 seed is the best bet for an upset?
This is a good spot for a first-round upset, and we think there will be at least one – maybe two in the first round.
All of these No. 12 seeds have some allure, and it comes down to which style can make an impact. Northern Iowa allowed 70 or more points in just six games this season, although it's worth noting they were 1-5 in those games. Will St. John's be patient if they have a slow start coming off the Big East tournament?
McNeese will be the most popular pick, and it's doable knowing they had two Quad 1 opponents in the regular season. The Cowboys can win that game, but if it's close late Vanderbilt shoots 78.5 percent from the free-throw line. High Point can get in a fast-break with Wisconsin, but the Badgers shoot 36.1% from 3-point range and have the guard play to match that scoring.
Our pick is Akron, and it's not just because of the Toppin injury. The Zips might be 0-7 all time in the NCAA tournament, but this team hasn't lost since Feb. 7 and scored more than 90 points in five of those games. There will be momentum from Shammah Scott's game-winning shot in the MAC tournament championship, too.