The Tennessee Volunteers have once again advanced to the Sweet 16, and they’re looking for more. Standing in their way of a third-straight Elite Eight are the Iowa State Cyclones, who landed the No. 2 seed in the Midwest Region.
The winner will advance to face the winner of Michigan-Alabama.
Iowa State has beaten No. 15 seed Tennessee State and No. 7 seed Kentucky to get to this spot. They now stare down Tennessee, which plays a very similar brand of basketball. The two defense-first teams will battle it out in Chicago on Friday night, with the Cyclones checking in as a 3.5 point favorite, according to FanDuel Sportsbook. That number has shifted in Tennessee’s favor over the last 24 hours.
So here’s the question — what exactly does Tennessee have to do to knock off Iowa State? We have four keys below.
Keep Ja’Kobi Gillespie hot
Tennessee, and the outside shooting of Ja’Kobi Gillespie, has run hot and cold all season long. That’s certainly not been the case so far during the NCAA Tournament. With Nate Ament still coming back to full strength, Tennessee has leaned on Gillespie to pick up the offensive slack. He’s responded with 29 points against Miami-Ohio and 21 points against Virginia.
Gillespie is 9-16 from three-point range so far during the tournament. In addition to that, Gillespie has 15 assists against just six turnovers during that time. He’s the engine making it all go right now, and that likely has to continue for Tennessee to pull the upset on Friday night.
“We’ve put a lot on him,” Rick Barnes said this week of Gillespie. “We’ve talked about that. I mean, he’s played probably more minutes than we thought he would. We knew he was gonna play a lot, but as many (as he has), probably not. But he has grown from a basketball IQ point tremendously.”
Gillespie’s matchup with Iowa State point guard Tamin Lipsey looms large here.
Tennessee has to dominate the offensive glass
When Tennessee is at their best, they’re crashing the boards at a really high rate. Even more specifically, they’re pulling down offensive rebounds and connecting on easy second chances. Against a team like Iowa State that is going to make everything difficult on you, winning this category is a must.
Tennessee holds the second best rebounding margin in the country with a +12 average. The Volunteers are among the best offensive rebounding teams in the nation, averaging over 15 per game. Iowa State ranks 234th in defensive rebounds per game with a little over 23.
Barnes has spoken at length about the inconsistency of his big men and just how much it affects the game. That will be no different here. The Volunteers will need Felix Okpara, J.P. Estrella, DeWayne Brown and Nate Ament attacking the boards against Iowa State, who may or may not have a key forward in 6-9 Joshua Jefferson on Friday night.
Don’t let Iowa State turn you over
One consistent thing has killed Tennessee in nearly all of their losses — untimely turnovers. The Volunteers struggled early in the year in the category as a completely new roster tried to find some chemistry. Somewhere along the way, Nate Ament and Ja’Kobi Gillespie settled in and Tennessee found their groove.
Still, the numbers aren’t pretty for the Vols for the year overall, and Iowa State is among the best in the country at turning you over. The Cyclones rank sixth nationally in forced turnovers with over 15 per game. Last weekend against Kentucky, Iowa State forced a whopping 20.
“Whether we’re playing Iowa State, or — we’ve talked about it all year, and you guys know we’ve had a problem with it,” Barnes said. “But you can’t turn it over against a team like them because, well, you can’t guard it, for one. And they’re gonna going to take advantage of it. So we have to take care of the basketball.”
Ja’Kobi Gillespie is not only going to have to score for Tennessee, but maybe more importantly, he’s going to have to play a clean game and take care of the basketball. That goes for Bishop Boswell and Nate Ament, too.
Limit Milan Momcilovic
Stop me if you’ve heard this before — Tennessee is running into an elite shooter with everything on the line in March. The Volunteers are flat out going to have their hands full with Iowa State’s Milan Momcilovic on Friday — there’s no way around it.
The 6-8 shooter is connecting on a shocking 49.3 percent of his outside shots, which leads the country. That stat isn’t a volume issue, either. Momcilovic has made the most three-pointers in the country, going 134-272 on the year. The junior wing has shot his way into being a potential first round pick during this summer’s NBA Draft.
Momcilovic is 7-16 so far in the NCAA Tournament. Tennessee ranks 23rd nationally in three-point percentage allowed, but Momcilovic provides a very unique challenge with his length.
You aren’t going to shut him out, let’s be honest. In a spot where he might get more opportunities with a potential absence of Joshua Jefferson though, you simply can’t let him get loose too many times.
Tennessee and Iowa State are set for a 10:10 p.m. ET tip-off in Chicago. TBS will have the coverage.