There will be some popular upset picks in the Midwest region. One might be picking against a team with the richest roster in the sport.
Kentucky spent more NIL money than anyone last offseason, and is just a No. 7 seed this season. The Wildcats get a tough matchup against Santa Clara on Friday, and those looking to find a double-digit seed to advance in their bracket might look the Broncos’ way.
[Enter Yahoo Fantasy Bracket Mayhem now for your shot at $50K]
Here are the first-round picks for the Midwest region with all odds from BetMGM (No. 1 seed Michigan and No. 6 Tennessee aren’t listed; they will play winners of First Four games):
No. 8 Georgia (-2.5) over No. 9 St. Louis
At one point, St. Louis was 24-1 with a one-point loss to Stanford on its resume. But if the adage that you want to be playing your best heading into the tournament is true, St. Louis might be in trouble. The Billikens went 4-4 down the stretch with all four losses coming to teams ranked 78th or worse, per KenPom. Among the current momentum scores at haslametrics.com, which measure how well a team is playing relative to its level from earlier in the season, St. Louis ranks last among all college basketball teams. The Billikens are a tremendous shooting team, and could rediscover that in the NCAA tournament, but we’ll take Georgia based on St. Louis’ recent slump.
No. 10 Santa Clara (+3.5) over No. 7 Kentucky
All season, Kentucky has had to hear about having a $22 million roster, which is the highest mark in college basketball. The Wildcats have been disappointing all season, including a 4-6 finish. The SEC is tough, but Kentucky deserved its No. 7 seed. Santa Clara has talent, too, and a recognizable coach in former NC State lead man Herb Sendek. Casual bettors might see Kentucky, one of the biggest name brands in the sport, and take the Wildcats over the third-best team in the WCC. Santa Clara is fully capable of winning this game straight up.
No. 12 Akron (+7.5) over No. 5 Texas Tech
This will be a popular No. 12-over-No. 5 upset pick. Miami (Ohio) got all the attention this season, but Akron was the better MAC team by the metrics and the Zips won 19 of their last 20 games. Texas Tech is a good team, but the Red Raiders got unlucky with a season-ending injury to All-American candidate JT Toppin. Then star guard Christian Anderson suffered what looked like a groin injury on the LED court at the Big 12 tournament, and although Texas Tech says he’s fine, we don’t know if he’s 100 percent. This line came down from the opener of Texas Tech -9.5 and might come down more before tipoff.
No. 3 Virginia (-18.5) over No. 14 Wright State
Virginia showed in a competitive 74-70 loss against Duke at the ACC tournament that it can hang with anyone. In 2026, the Cavaliers are 18-3 with two losses to Duke and one to North Carolina when it had Caleb Wilson. Wright State isn’t particularly impressive in any way, and the gap here seems wide.
No. 15 Tennessee State (+24.5) over No. 2 Iowa State
Inflation is happening in NCAA tournament betting. There were only two 20-point favorites among No. 2 seeds over the last four tournaments, via Matt Eisenberg’s tournament guide. This year all four No. 2 seeds are at least 20-point favorites. The dominance of the best teams in the early rounds of the NCAA tournament the past few years was going to affect spreads, and No. 2 seeds are 9-3 against the spread the last three tournaments. Maybe you buy that the gap between the top and bottom of the bracket is becoming completely insurmountable, but there is a tax to be paid to take the teams on the top two lines this year. Some of these underdogs have to cover the inflated lines, right?
No. 13 Hofstra (+12.5) over No. 4 Alabama
On Monday, Alabama guard Aden Holloway was arrested and charged with first-degree possession of marijuana and failure to affix a tax stamp. That is an unexpected twist, and line has dropped two points as a result. Holloway averages 16.8 points per game. Even without that news, Hofstra is an interesting pick. The Pride have wins over Pitt and Syracuse, with an athletic backcourt and they shoot 3s well. Alabama shoots a higher percentage of 3s than any team in the country and if they’re falling, the Crimson Tide are always hard to beat. But that variance can lead to upsets, too.