March Madness 2026: Ranking Sweet 16 teams' chances to win NCAA championship originally appeared on The Sporting News.
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With the Sweet 16 established of the 2026 NCAA Tournament, you’ll notice there are nothing but Power 5 programs involved.
That’s a common complaint regarding March Madness now. We still have as much March as ever, but perhaps less madness depending on how one defines it. We had buzzer-beaters and shocking results, and we had the continued improvement in the quality of play. The late John Adams, who struggled to get the “freedom of movement” movement moving while NCAA coordinator of officials, would be delighted at the progress the sport has made in this department.
We don’t have a Chattanooga now, or a Northern Iowa or a Saint Peter’s.
We do have Iowa and Texas and also Nebraska winning two more games in a weekend than in 85 previous NCAA Tournaments. It is possible to look at this event and recognize it’s annually the most entertaining sporting event in the U.S., even if you’ve heard of all participating schools.
Yes, the teams at the top and bottom of this ranking of the Sweet 16 – in terms of the ability to win the championship, based on the qualities that typically form such a team as well as the difficult of the expected road – are familiar.
It doesn’t mean we still can’t be surprised.
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Ranking the Sweet 16 teams
1. Arizona
If you’re getting nervous because you picked Arizona to win your bracket and, all of a sudden, there were the Wildcats in a 4-point game with 5 minutes to play against Utah State, remember last year’s Florida Gators were in a much more ferocious battle to survive their second-round game against UConn and still wound up with the trophy. Utah State had a different approach, and it didn’t work until it worked. That doesn’t mean Arizona is any less imposing. They’re still relatively healthy and overwhelmingly skilled. They’ll need to move the ball better to win going forward than they managed against the Aggies. (Seriously, 8 assists on 22 field goals?) But this team also has Jaden Bradley there to rescue the Wildcats whenever it’s necessary. He’s like the 2026 version of Walter Clayton. There are worse comparisons to fit.
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2. Michigan
Is it too simple to say that if point guard Elliott Cadeau plays as he did in the second round against Saint Louis, then Michigan will be difficult to prevent from winning at all? Probably, but remember most of the defenses he confronts will be more imposing than the one the Billikens presented. He stood up to the single-elimination pressure, though. That’s a big part of this. And the skill he showed was not a mirage. The Midwest region is starting to appear inviting, which only helps the cause.
3. Duke
Here’s what’s totally amazing about freshman All-American Cameron Boozer. Even on a night when he’s relatively ineffective, as against TCU in the second round, he still can produce a double-double and make the Devils difficult to overcome. But that’s two games in a row below his standard, and the opposition from here on will be well above what the Devils have faced to date. They’ll need to be better at both ends to do what a No. 1 overall seed is supposed to do. Getting back Patrick Ngongba on a limited basis certainly helps, but they may require more of him to survive the coming challenges.
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4. Houston
It’s obvious by now, and no surprise, this Houston defense is going to be a monstrous challenge for anyone forced to share the court with the Cougars. It’s apparent, as well, freshman point guard Kingston Flemings is going to deliver his share of production whether the opposition is Rider or some major conference power in March. What will decide whether Houston goes one better than they did a year ago is the veteran backcourt tandem of Milos Uzan and Emanuel Sharp. Houston has won at times without them being effective, but it seems unlikely that’ll be possible in games this big against teams this good. The Cougars probably would be higher on this list if they weren’t facing the toughest Sweet 16 game of any higher seed.
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5. Illinois
There is absolutely nothing not to love about the Illinois lineup or rotation: size, power, skill, depth. But as the season’s end approaches, and the objective obviously is to delay that as long as possible, we still don’t have any better idea than we did near the start about what is the best approach is for the Illini to win the biggest games against the best opponents. This is a team full of players, probably eight of them, who could average 18 points. But when a team has that many options, it can meander a bit in search of the best on a particular night. What if it takes too long to find it within the prescribed 40 minutes?
MORE: Illinois' Keaton Wagler among SN's top 10 freshmen in March Madness
6. Connecticut
It just doesn’t feel right with the Huskies, does it? They’re still here, but the offense continues to wander in a variety of directions. They were hugely dependent on the very reliable Alex Karaban in the second round, and he delivered as a true winner is likely to do, but as the competition escalates, the trouble this team has seen generating quality shot attempt figures to cost them. There is a reason they have the 30th-ranked offense, according to Ken Pomeroy’s efficiency stats. They just don’t have enough high-level options to win this. And they should know, because they did it twice recently.
MORE: Alex Karaban's final journey at UConn could be historic
7. Purdue
If allowing 1.05 points per possession doesn’t sound like an exceptional college defense, which is what the Miami Hurricanes were able to manage against the Boilers’ D, remember that’s only slightly higher than Purdue permitted on average through the season, which includes games against Evansville, Oakland, Eastern Illinois and Penn State. They’re getting better – not better enough to reach the NCAA championship, but maybe better enough to win a few more games in this deal and claim the honor making a very short drive to the Final Four.
8. Michigan State
The Spartans are fortunate still to be alive in this competition: fortunate because Louisville appeared without its best player, fortunate because an uninspiring MSU effort kept the game closer than it should have been, obviously fortunate the great Tom Izzo is their coach. MSU does not win another game in this tournament with an effort anything like the one they produced Saturday. The good news is that was the aberration. They almost always play with greater composure and precision. And their two-big lineup represents the sort of uncommon approach that often is successful in March.
9. Iowa
The Hawkeyes are the Syracuse of the 2026 NCAA tournament. That does not mean they’ve mastered the unique Jim Boeheim 2-3 zone. It means they are different – really different. Just as Boeheim’s scheme ruined many opponents more capable than the Orange might have been on a given day –, for instance, Miles Bridges and Jaron Jackson with Michigan State in 2018 – Iowa’s uncommon approach to offense is the sort that practice cannot simulate. Bennett Stirtz’s control of the game is unlike anything any other point guard delivers. The weird thing is the victory over Florida, which advanced the Hawkeyes to the Sweet 16 for the first time in decades, was the first the Hawkeyes had managed against an elite, top-3 seed opponent. They were 0-6 before. Their next opponent, Nebraska, is a No. 4 seed. Maybe that helps.
10. Iowa State
The Cyclones’ resilience, getting this far in the absence of All-American Joshua Jefferson, is borderline astonishing. Even lacking their best and most physical offensive asset, they blew out Kentucky. Their capacity to win the title, however, is entirely dependent on Jefferson‘s availability. It’s possible they could defeat Tennessee without him, but highly unlikely they can maneuver against Michigan’s frontcourt power without someone like him to stand up to it. Jefferson is equal parts scorer, rebounder, playmaker, and muscle man. They’ll need all of that to get through the next four games. If we knew for certain he’d be OK, not just able to go but able to be Joshua Jefferson, the Cyclones would be ranked as a serious contender to get this done. So the number adjacent to “Iowa State” here is imprecise, to say the least.
11. Tennessee
One might say reaching this point given the squad’s limitations represents the fulfillment of any reasonable goal. However, with Iowa State in its compromised position, there is the opportunity to advance deeper (and at least get Iowa State victim Kentucky back, in a twisted way, for that regular season sweep.) The Vols pulled off a nice second round win against No. 3 seed Virginia, but star freshman Nate Ament did not look like himself, and the Vols could have been more convincing operating around the rim. No notes for guard Bishop Boswell, who merely needs to continue playing as he did in the second round.
12. Arkansas
When someone tells you who they are, believe them. We’ve heard that a lot lately. Well, the Razorbacks have made it abundantly clear their brand for this season is going to be trying to outscore everyone they encounter on a basketball court. As we saw with Alabama in 2024, it’s possible for that method to produce a Final Four appearance. But no one in the last three decades has won a national championship being so pliable on the defensive end.
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13. Nebraska
Getting to this point in the tournament is well beyond what most anyone imagined the Huskers could accomplish when the season began. and it certainly far surpassed the assertions of those in the public, who assumed that because this was Nebraskaball, it had an expiration date. With center Rienk Mast balling again, the Huskers are a challenging team to play against. Offensively, he provides one of the most versatile big men in the tournament. And defensively, the Huskers have been elite from beginning to end. There might still be more in them.
14. St. John’s
I never believed St. John’s could win this deal, but I had become convinced they would be able to at least approach it. It’s hard to maintain that conviction after watching their second-round game against Kansas. The Red Storm were sloppy on offense, unconvincing in generating quality shots, much too quick to settle for 3-point attempts they were unlikely to convert. Can they make Duke that ugly? Siena did. TCU did for 32 minutes. St. John’s is going to have to drag down the Devils for the entire 40 minutes to have a chance to advance.
MORE: How St. John's beat the buzzer, and Kansas, to reach Sweet 16
15. Alabama
Surely the Crimson Tide are flying high after such an overwhelming victory against Texas Tech. The Tide love to shoot threes more than any other team in college basketball loves to shoot threes, and now they’ll again be shooting threes just two victories away from the Final Four. They hit 19 against Tech, a dozen against Hofstra. They’ll need a bunch more to take down the most complete team in college basketball, Arizona, but one that suddenly appeared vulnerable when faced by a tactical knuckleball, Utah State’s pressure D. Well, that’s exactly how this Alabama attack is designed: to be different than what a team faces in most every other game. Look, Alabama isn’t taking home the trophy with a defense this meager; the Tide don’t guard the perimeter, don’t take the ball from opponents, don’t disrupt the opposition’s flow. But they might outscore a bunch of people before the supply of threes is exhausted.
16. Texas
Whoever would’ve imagined the program whose athletic department is the richest in all of college sports, and whose university resides in that same neighborhood, could be construed as a “Cinderella “story in any NCAA competition? More to the point at hand, who might’ve imagined this flawed Longhorns team could find a way to win three tournament games (don't forget about the First Four) when winning even two in a row at any point in the season seemed a monumental challenge? Sean Miller has coached teams that made it farther than this, and certainly were more accomplished. This feels nearly a miracle.