With the 2026 NCAA men's tournament upon us, here's everything you need to know about the Midwest region.
[More regional breakdowns: East | West | South]
Who are the favorites?
-
Michigan (+350 to win the national title at BetMGM)
-
Iowa State (16-1)
-
Virginia (80-1)
Michigan opened as the early favorite after the selection show, but is now firmly the No. 2 favorite behind Duke. Iowa State’s odds have slowly gotten better since the bracket was released, as bettors clearly like the draw the Cyclones got on their side of the bracket. Virginia, meanwhile, has the highest odds of any top-three seed to win the national title. No. 5 seeds like Vanderbilt and St. John’s (66-1) have better odds to win it all than the Cavaliers do.
[Yahoo Fantasy Bracket Mayhem is back: Enter for a shot to win up to $50K]
When will the No. 1 seed go down?
It’s hard to see how Michigan isn’t going to make the Final Four. The Wolverines opened as the betting favorites to win the national title because they’re healthier than No. 1 overall seed Duke and also because they have a better draw than the Blue Devils. The Midwest is pretty wide open behind Michigan, and you can make a serious case for numerous teams to make the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight alongside the Wolverines.
Who is the Cinderella of the region?
There are a couple of intriguing candidates to make a run as a double-digit seed in the Midwest. The obvious choice is No. 11 Miami (Ohio) after the RedHawks went the entirety of the regular season without losing a game before falling in the MAC tournament. However, Miami has to get past SMU in the First Four to earn a matchup with No. 6 Tennessee in the first round.
No. 10 Santa Clara could be ripe to pull an upset over No. 7 Kentucky and give No. 2 Iowa State trouble in the second round. Kentucky enters the tournament with 13 losses and four of those came to teams who were not ranked at the time of the game. Santa Clara finished third in the West Coast Conference and made the WCC title game before losing to Gonzaga. The Broncos have shot nearly 1,000 3-pointers already this season. Only 13 teams at the top level of college basketball have hoisted more. And we all know what can happen when a double-digit seed gets hot from behind the arc.
Biggest upset of the region?
Another reason to like Miami is Tennessee coach Rick Barnes’ record against the spread in the NCAA tournament. Though Tennessee went to the Elite Eight a season ago, the Vols were just 2-2 against the spread in those four games. Overall, teams coached by Barnes are just 7-19 against the spread across the last 12 NCAA tournaments.
Akron is also going to be a trendy upset pick, especially for people who are not confident in the health of Texas Tech’s Christian Anderson. Tech said Sunday that Watson will be available for the NCAA tournament after he slipped and fell on the Big 12’s LED court during the Red Raiders’ conference tournament loss to Iowa State.
Anderson has been massive for the Red Raiders in JT Toppin’s absence. Toppin, one of the best players in the country, tore an ACL on Feb. 17. Anderson has been playing nearly every minute he can since then and is averaging 19 points per game.
If he’s not fully healthy, Tech will be very vulnerable.
Players to watch
Michigan F Yaxel Lendeborg
The UAB transfer has been one of the best players in college basketball this season. Lendeborg shoots 51% from the field as he averages 14.4 points and seven rebounds per game. He scored 20 points in the Wolverines’ Big Ten tournament championship game loss to Purdue and dropped 27 while making 67% of his shots in the last game of the regular season against Michigan State.
Michigan’s size is a mismatch for most opponents as the frontcourt trio of Lindeborg, Morez Johnson and Aday Mara average nearly 30 points and over 20 rebounds a game. Can anyone slow the Wolverines’ big men down before the second weekend of the tournament?
Iowa State F Milan Momcilovic
The junior has been absolutely absurd from behind the arc this season. Momcilovic leads Iowa State with 17.1 points per game and is shooting 51% from the field. But less than half of his shots come inside the 3-point line.
Momcilovic is shooting almost 50% from the 3-point line on 7.5 attempts per game this season. His attempts from behind the arc make up basically two-thirds of his overall shot attempts — he’s shooting 55% from 2-point range — and may be the best volume shooter from long range in college basketball.
That was on full display in the Cyclones’ Big 12 tournament semifinal loss to Arizona on Friday. Momcilovic was 8-of-14 from the 3-point line and 10-of-18 from the field as he had 28 points in the 82-80 defeat.
Virginia F Ugonna Onyenso
There’s an extremely good reason we are highlighting a player who is averaging 6.7 points and five rebounds a game in this section.
Onyenso was an absolute eraser in the lane during the ACC tournament and can be the type of defender that anchors a deep tournament run. He set the ACC tournament record with 21 blocks across three games — that is not a typo — and broke the previous record by 50 percent.
In the Cavaliers’ ACC title-game loss to Duke, Onyenso scored just six points but had eight rebounds and nine blocks. That came just two days after he had eight blocks in a win over NC State. He slacked off in the semifinal win against Miami with four blocks but had 17 points as the Cavaliers won by 22. The Nigeria native played at Kentucky and Kansas State before transferring to Virginia this season and could be earning a serious look by NBA teams with the way he can swat shots. Perhaps most impressively, Onyenso accompanied those 21 blocks with just three fouls.
Midwest region game schedule, tip times
-
No. 1 Michigan vs. No. 16 UMBC or Howard (Buffalo, Thursday, 7:10 p.m. ET, CBS)
-
No. 8 Georgia vs. No. 9 Saint Louis (Buffalo, Thursday, 9:45 p.m. ET, CBS)
-
No. 5 Texas Tech vs. No. 12 Akron (Tampa, Friday, 12:40 p.m. ET, TruTV)
-
No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 13 Hofstra (Tampa, Friday, 3:15 p.m. ET, TruTV)
-
No. 6 Tennessee s. No. 11 Miami (Ohio) or SMU (Philadelphia, Friday, 4:25 p.m. ET, TBS)
-
No. 3 Virginia vs. No. 14 Wright State (Philadelphia, Friday, 1:50 p.m. ET, TBS)
-
No. 7 Kentucky vs. No. 10 Santa Clara (St. Louis, Friday, 12:15 p.m. ET, CBS)
-
No. 2 Iowa State vs. No. 15 Tennessee State (St. Louis, Friday, 2:50 p.m. ET, CBS)
Who makes it to Indianapolis?
We can’t go against the favorite to win it all. The bracket lines up very well for Michigan. Iowa State can beat anyone when Momcilovic is hot and Joshua Jefferson was an all-Big 12 player this season. But the two teams are very disparate. Michigan can dominate on the inside and has enough talent on the perimeter to not let the Cyclones run wild if they meet in the Elite Eight.